Haiti is often seen as something of a basket case. Prone to coups, riven by crime and battered by hurricanes, it's the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. But could it be about to turn a corner?

Oxford University economics professor Paul Collier believes so. And what's more, he says Haiti could set an example for developing other fragile states.

Collier isn't the only one pushing Haiti's cause. He accompanied U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former U.S. President Bill Clinton there last week to promote an anti-poverty action plan.

The plan focuses on job creation, food security, reforestation of the almost treeless country and provision of basic services such as healthcare, according to U.N. officials.

Ban says there's growing optimism Haiti can break through, and hopes an international donor conference next month will provide a fresh start.

Security, trade and infrastructure are the three things that will help get the country out of the doldrums, according to Collier. And the hardest part - security - has already been done thanks to 9,000 U.N. peacekeepers.

Trade is also on its way with a U.S. trade policy called HOPEII that gives Haiti privileged access to the U.S. market. Collier believes Haiti could now turn itself into a major garment manufacturing centre.

"I would say Haiti is the only member of the bottom billion where we have trade policy that's really going to be effective," the economist told a high-level development conference in London last week just before he left for Haiti.

"Bottom billion" is an epithet coined by Collier referring to the countries that are home to the world's poorest one billion people.

"If Haiti could create 100,000 jobs in garments, that would make a huge difference to the economic security of ordinary Haitian families," Collier said.

Haiti has one of the fastest growing populations on earth but very few jobs for young people.

IN NEED OF INFRASTRUCTURE

A few months ago Collier visited two garment export centres - one in the capital Port-au-Prince, the other in the remote northeast near the border with Dominican Republic.

Contrary to what you might expect, he said the one in the capital wasn't doing too well, while the other was booming. So why the disparity? The answer is infrastructure - or lack of.

In the northeast, the firms were plugging into Dominican Republic for electricity, and exporting their garments through a port just over the border.

"We've done the hard part, we've done the security, we've done the trade policy. All that's needed now is infrastructure," Collier said.

"At the moment the infrastructure that's making Haiti succeed is unfortunately in a place far away from most Haitians. We need processing zones that work near the big population centres like Port-au-Prince."

Collier argues that what Haiti needs is "joined up policy" - roads, electricity, ports and other infrastructure financed by aid which must be co-ordinated with trade and security policies.

"If we do that, Haiti is on the threshold of generating a lot of jobs which would in turn transform the political scene, because governance is going to be a whole lot easier in an environment of growth, rising prosperity and increasing jobs than in an environment of poverty, stagnation and hopelessness," the economist added.

MISPLACED PESSIMISM?

Last year was a difficult one for Haiti. Protests over rocketing food prices led to the government's fall, and back-to-back storms devastated vast swathes of the country.

But Collier believes donors' traditional air of despondency over the country is misplaced. He says Haiti's circumstances are propitious compared to those of other fragile states. And he warns that if the world can't make a success of Haiti, it won't stand much chance elsewhere.

In a report written for the U.N. secretary-general - Haiti: From Natural Catastrophe to Economic Security - Collier lays out some of the reasons that make Haiti a good bet for donors:

• The country is not part of a troubled region, unlike fragile states in the Great Lakes region of Africa and Central Asia, which face severe neighbourhood problems in addition to their internal challenges
• Unlike many fragile states, Haiti is not ethnically divided and does not have an armed and organised political group ready to launch rebellion
• It has a huge and nearby diaspora. Haiti's migrant community in the United States and Canada is proportionally one of the largest in the world, and provides the country with large sums in the form of family remittances
• Haiti has a massive economic opportunity in the form of HOPEII which guarantees it duty-free, quota-free access to the U.S. market for the next nine years

Do you agree with Collier? How can donors help lift Haiti out of decades of chronic poverty? Tell us what you think.

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