Is climate change a disaster?
Blogged by: Nina Brenjo
A labourer walks past a burning oven to make fertilizer ingredients out of scrap leather at a roadside factory in Kolkata. Photo by REUTERS\Parth Sanyal
How bad is climate change really? Can we expect endless droughts and catastrophic floods or will rising temperatures lead to higher crop yields and more tourism in many places, asks Der Spiegel's Olaf Stampf.
He believes the truth is somewhere in between. There will be losers, but some nations stand to gain from climate change.
Most importantly, the end of the world is nowhere as near as we might think, judging by the dire warnings in the media, Stampf says.
The temperatures have fluctuated in both directions in the past and a rising number of studies by palaeontologists and geologists show this, he argues.
Granted, the countries in the north - Russia and Canada, for example - can expect more abundant harvests and more income from tourism. As Stampf comments, the only negative consequence for Scandinavians is "the guilty conscience that could come with benefiting from global warming".
But to claim that developing countries will be devastated by global warming is simply not correct, he says. The rainfall in Africa is not expected to decrease much, if at all, except in the south. And contrary to widespread belief, it's good news for Sahel: the forecasts show that it will become wetter, not plagued by drought.
Stampf's thoughts could not be further removed from those of British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett.
The Darfur crisis is a prime example of a place where resources are dwindling because of climate change, according to Beckett, quoted in Britain's Guardian newspaper.
According to Beckett, the Nile stands to lose 80 per cent of its flow in Egypt and, as a consequence, 2 million people could end up displaced by flooding.
Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu agrees. While the "cushioned and cosseted" of the developed world have so far only felt climate change in the form of extended summers, the poor of the world are the ones exposed to the reality of climate change every day, according to Tutu, also writing in the Guardian.
The snow melting on Kilimanjaro mountain and increasing competition for grazing lands and water are proof.
Tutu advises those living in the northern hemisphere to think about the problems the South is facing "next time they reach for the thermostat switch".
"They should realise that while the problems of the Mozambican farmer might seem far away, it may not be long before their troubles wash up on their shores," he writes.
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11 responses to “Is climate change a disaster?”
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14 May 2007 12:35:06 GMT
There is about 400 billion tons of methane hydrate in permafrost and 10,000 billion tons under the ocean.
These have partially melted before with catastrophic results. A sudden release of less than 30 billion tons of methane is like doubling the CO2 in the air. That is the true danger of global warming.14 May 2007 12:36:22 GMT
Unless you know about "methane hydrate" (also known as "clathrate" or "fire-ice"), you don't understand the true threat of global warming.
Methane hydrate is ice that contains more carbon than all fossil fuels combined! Unlike fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gas when burned, methane hydrate emits when melted!!16 May 2007 08:27:35 GMT
Too true, and do they realize that a difference of as little as one degree can start the melting process? {Probably not)
16 May 2007 08:27:59 GMT
I find it hard to believe that Stampf can make such a preposterous statement as "to claim that developing countries will be devastated by global warming is simply not correct", considering the mountain of scientific data saying otherwise. How many worldwide scientific reports have to be published before the world finally accepts this actuality? To say that some countries will "enjoy" the benefits of global warming is callously ignoring reality. We are all a part of this global problem and will all be affected by it regardless of where we live, either physically or economically.
16 May 2007 08:28:21 GMT
just thinking..
i agree with Mr Arnold. The true danger of global warming is still deeply hidden. we have depleted most of our underground water sources which i believe formed a very integral part of our ecosystem's working; that includes everything else we have been harvesting; including oil; all of which has acted to cool; lubricate and keep underground; what needs to stay underground; methane pockets and other natural gasses are rising; although it is always nice to be positive; global warming will bring new changes to our world; suspecting; Yellowstone; Indonesian; African Rift System; and who knows what other super volcanic activity lies beneath the ocean; i think we about 750â000 years behind schedule with regard to pole-overturn; i hope for the best; i just hope that all that methane doesnât ignite; all at once; firestorm hell; hopefully all those gasses in the atmosphere will act like a refrigerator and rather cause an ice-age; donât know which will be more effective? Good luck; H16 May 2007 12:07:06 GMT
"Granted, the countries in the north - Russia and Canada, for example - can expect more abundant harvests and more income from tourism".
We in British Columbia, Canada, are seeing the results of the climate change NOW. Milder winters than normal have allowed the Western and Mountain Pine beetle to flourish and to destroy our Ponderosa-Pine trees. Within the next few years BC will have NO Pine trees. Sure, we will have more abundant harvests as our Forest companies race to cut and salvage the remaining Pine. I also question the 'more income from Tourism' statement. BC's vast areas of dead timber have become a visual nightmare and a fire hazard. The next decade has the potential for extreme fire behaviour leading to large wildfires. I would think that Tourism would like decline during periods of wildfires...17 May 2007 07:21:07 GMT
Wow, after reading all of this, I'm beginning to miss the days of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). Most people would probably prefer a quick death over a slow one if given a choice. With Global Warming I suppose we could all end up like a bunch of frogs in a slow boiling pot, never being the wiser until our goose is cooked. Who knows, maybe a giant meteorite, volcano or exploding Sun will put us out of our misery first. In any case, it makes terrorism sound like a minor problem in comparison? In this context, I find it odd how similar the word tourism and terrorism sound alike?
18 May 2007 07:58:56 GMT
Current incompetent stories regarding CO2 Causing Climate Change are a fraud.
When you base anything on a false premise everything else that follows is false. CO2 causing climate change IS a false premise. Consensus is NOT science. Educate, inform yourself, take a 9th grade science class. Additional information http://www.InteliOrg.com/co229 May 2007 16:44:28 GMT
There are kernels of truth in all of the above assessments. Climatic change is a normal process on Earth, as is evidenced in the history observed in the rocks. The global warming that we are experiencing is part of that climatic change, which is global in nature. It affects the entire Earth. Now, it is true, that all scientists do not agree on the exact cause(s). It could be polar reversals, rapid melting and effervescence of methane ice and gas, fluctations in temperature due to melting of the ice caps, effluents put into the air by man, along with all the pollution and trash put into our earth system, or, all of the above.
What we are experiencing is weather and temperature changes all over the world. There is rampant de-forestation. For example, in the Amazon Rain Forest, over 40% of the trees have been cut down. At the rate they are going, the Amazon River will dry up, and the land will become a desert. The harm to our planet by man is devestating, but not irreversible. If all the countries in the world could come together at this critical time,and reverse most of the damaqe that man has wrought, we could at least slow down the course of changes that are in progress.18 Jun 2007 09:26:03 GMT
Here in Kyoto, where I live, the local tourism industry is largely based on seasonal visitors from other parts of Japan - millions of people coming to enjoy spring flowers or autumn colors in the historical city setting.
The autumn colors are produced by natural and planted stands of deciduous trees (those that drop their leaves in winter). In recent decades, evergreen oaks (typical of warmer parts of Japan) are becoming more predominant, while the increasingly hot summers and warm autumns have reduced the splendor of the autumn colors. Climate change is thus literally in the eye of the beholder. It can also be in the stomach. The best-tasting rice in Japan comes from rice growing at the coolest limits of its cultivation range in Asia. Hot days and cool nights in autumn need to be just-so to produce the best rice grains. Rice farmers in central Japan now complain that the late warm weather is ruining the quality of their most valuable rice varieties. Early this year, in Tokyo, the first snow fell at the end of winter, the latest first snow on record. In Japan, the weather records are long and detailed and follow the same general pattern of warming that is seen in other parts of the northern hemisphere. There is not much doubt among most people here about the general reality of global warming, even if some scientists have academically valid doubts about particular aspects of what is happening. I suspect a lot of the data that is peculiar to Japan has not been translated very widely, though many scientists here are working on climate change issues.03 Oct 2007 14:29:30 GMT
polar cities, google the term
http://climatechange3000