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Fuzzy math on Darfur dead?
15 Aug 2007 11:14:00 GMT
Blogged by: Peter Apps
Women attend a rally in Washington to stop the Darfur crisis. April 2006 file photo by REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst.
Women attend a rally in Washington to stop the Darfur crisis. April 2006 file photo by REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst.
There is no doubt that big or striking numbers attract attention - 1,000 people dying a day in Congo, 4 million displaced inside and outside Iraq, 1.7 million Cambodians dead in the killing fields of the late 1970s...

And so perhaps it is no surprise that in a recent advertising campaign the Save Darfur Coalition - a consortium of thousands of faith-based and advocacy groups backed by celebrities like Mia Farrow and George Clooney - led on the horrific figure of 400,000 people killed in what they called the first genocide of the 21st century.

But when a generally pro-Sudanese government lobby group complained to Britain's Advertising Standards Authority, the Save Darfur Coalition was unable to properly substantiate the figure. The ASA ruled against them. You can read the ruling here and the Reuters story here.

The Sudanese government says only 9,000 people have died in Darfur since rebels took up arms in 2003 - a figure that most experts say is a huge underestimate. But most estimates of the number of deaths put the figure at around 200,000 - half Save Darfur's figure.

Even researcher John Hagan - whose estimates of the death toll is higher than some and whose research Save Darfur repeatedly cites - was only willing to say in a letter that a figure as large as 400,000 was "certainly within the realms of possibility". That seems a far cry from the original advert's simple assertion that "400,000 innocent men, women and children have been killed".

Writing in the New York Times and reprinted in the International Herald Tribune, Sam Dealey says inflating figures plays into the hands of the Sudanese government and actually hampers relief delivery.

"Khartoum considers the inflated numbers to be evidence that all groups that deliver aid to Darfur are actually an adjunct of the activist groups that the regime considers its enemies, and thus find justification for delaying visas, refusing to allow shipments of supplies and otherwise putting obstacles in the way of aid delivery," he writes.

The Save Darfur coalition says the argument over numbers misses the point, that the reason for the lack of proper data is that the Sudanese government denies access and that the important thing is stopping the killing not querying the numbers.

On online magazine Spiked, Brendan O'Neill raises another interesting point. While British newspapers often provide extensive cover of Advertising Standards Authority rulings, they have been conspicuously silent over the Save Darfur case.

He suggests the reason is simply that British papers have frequently used an unsourced figure of 400,000 dead in Darfur, and do not want to draw attention to anything that might point to possible errors on their part.

Then he goes further, saying that Save Darfur activism has become almost completely divorced from events on the ground in the region and has simply become moralistic and simplistic - "pornography for the chattering classes", to quote his headline.

"Many campaigners and writers in the West have cynically and opportunistically turned Darfur into "Our Mission"," he says. "Propagandistically, they insist that the conflict is a simple case of African savages trying to wipe out African victims, and they have exaggerated the current scale of the suffering to suit the purposes of their own Heroes Versus New Nazis morality tale."

Darfur is, like most conflicts, hideously complex. Even many aid workers based there now have little idea which of the myriad rebel or militia groups are attacking their compounds, convoys or refugee camps.

But in this case, the Advertising Standards Authority says that is not the issue either. They simply say campaigning groups must be able to back up their claims.

"We do try to be more sensitive when it comes to charities, but there are limits," said ASA spokesman Matt Wilson. "We would encourage them to make sure that any facts or figures they use in adverts are accurate."

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1 response to “Fuzzy math on Darfur dead?”

Please note that comments should not be regarded as the views of Reuters.
  1. Bill Andress says:

    While Save Darfur may not be able to substantiate its numbers, that, in itself, does not refute them. Eric Reeves, who may be the most thorough of any analyst who seeks to find real values says that the NY Times article, which you quote, is itself "shoddy journalsim". If you care enough to go through his work (at http://www.sudanreeves.org/index.html) you will find justification for a much larger than 9,000 and much larger than 200,000 number.

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Peter Apps covered business, politics, disaster, disease, agriculture and occasional crime stories for Reuters in southern Africa before being reposted to Sri Lanka just in time for a new outbreak of civil war. A minibus crash on assignment in September 2006 broke his neck and left him quadriplegic. Nine months to the day after the crash, he was released from hospital in a wheelchair and returned to work for AlertNet in London, scheming his return to field reporting.

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