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Kenya crisis jeopardises Africa's emergence from poverty
Written by: Peter Apps
A child peers from a pile of belongings at a temporary shelter in Nairobi.
REUTERS/Antony Njugun
The sudden outbreak of violence plaguing Kenya since last week's disputed elections may have sparked a humanitarian crisis, but the real damage may go far deeper. Only a few weeks ago, with fears mounting of a global economic downturn following the US sub prime mortgage crisis, Africa was being viewed by some investors as a relatively safe bet for the first time in recent decades. The end of major wars in western and southern Africa, a string of non-violent elections and decent if not spectacular economic growth figures across a string of countries was sparking new interest and optimism. "In some ways, we are where India was in the early 1990s," African Development Bank President Donald Kaberuka told me in mid-December. "We are at the point where Africa is no longer an object of just pity and aid." Kenya was regarded as central to this process. Sadly, the recent violence has potentially jeopardised that, investors say. African growth was seen in the context of good growth across most developing economies, with the world's poorest having better access to banking and capital than ever before. Shortly before Christmas, a report showed that microcredit - tiny loans to the poorest at relatively high rates of interest - had boomed from reaching only 13 million recipients a decade earlier to 10 times that number, with half a billion people benefiting around the world, if family members of recipients were taken into account. Many of those recipients were part of the world's "bottom billion" of people living on less than a dollar a day. The majority of the growth was in Asia, but Africa was seen to be following suit, with innovative Kenyan projects considered the most promising. Now, the speed of Kenya's deterioration is potentially putting off investors and donors from risking more money in Africa, Reuters correspondent Matthew Tostevin writes, particularly as it comes at the same time as growing worries over the future leadership of the previous success story South Africa. Populist former Deputy President Jacob Zuma beat current president Thabo Mbeki to take the leadership of the ruling African National Congress in December, but must face renewed corruption charges in court before United takes over from Mbeki in 2009. Hardly a surprise, then, that developments in Kenya were said to be spreading gloom across the continent. Comparisons with Rwanda's genocide may be excessive, Alastair Thomson writes, but images of torture churches and fleeing civilians do little to encourage fresh money. Kenya's current crisis may pass - but even if it does, the long-term damage will remain, slowing any African growth and therefore the emergence of many ordinary Africans from poverty. And it is worth remembering that preventable infant illnesses, childbirth complications and poverty-related disease kill many more than high profile crises such as the present violence.
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4 responses to “Kenya crisis jeopardises Africa's emergence from poverty”
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Peter Apps covered business, politics, disaster, disease, agriculture and occasional crime stories for Reuters in southern Africa before being reposted to Sri Lanka just in time for a new outbreak of civil war. A minibus crash on assignment in September 2006 broke his neck and left him quadriplegic. Nine months to the day after the crash, he was released from hospital in a wheelchair and returned to work for AlertNet in London, scheming his return to field reporting.
16 Jan 2008 07:55:39 GMT
I don't know why everyone thinks that this crisis may pass. It doesn't appear that anyone any control of the situation and the country is on the brink of anarchy and genocide. I have said as much...
http://theeprovocateur.blogspot18 Jan 2008 19:05:00 GMT
I must say that I can't say in entirety who won the presidency and justice needs to be done. But I have some comments just to make sure our conclusions and perceptions (especially by the international press) are drawn from correct information:
1. Kibaki's PNU was involved in election irregularities ââ¬" It is true that there were irregularities in some PNU strongholds. But there were irregularities in some ODM strongholds of Nyanza and Rift Valley with some constituencies reporting voter turnout of over 90% (very suspicious) or 100% (outrageous) and Kibaki's party agents chased away during tallying. Unfortunately, this has been completely blacked out by the press as it happened at the beginning of the vote tallying process. 2. Raila beat Kibaki in 6 of 8 provinces and thus by inference won the elections ââ¬" Letââ¬â¢s get mathematical for a moment. Question is by how much in the 6 provinces? What is the voter population in these 6 provinces vis a vis the remaining 2 provinces? If indeed Kibaki managed to garner between 18% and 45% in 5 of these 6 provinces, and Raila on the other hand had between 2% and 5% in the remaining 2 (which account for approx. 30% of the countryââ¬â¢s registered voters), a Kibaki win is not entirely unfathomable. Non-Kenyans may not be aware but Kenya's law is about who wins in terms of absolute numbers as long as they fulfill the 25% requirement in at least 5 of 8 provinces. 3. ODM won 99 parliamentary seats and PNU won 43 seats and therefore Kibaki lost the elections ââ¬" Two issues: ââ¬Â¢ Though conducted concurrently, the Parliamentary and Presidential are 2 separate and distinct elections. A party can win one and lose the other and vise versa. ââ¬Â¢ PNU was just the lead party among 15+ parties that supported Kibaki. These parties fielded competing candidates in certain areas which resulted in a split parliamentary vote sometimes giving ODM victory in the parliamentary election. Thus, in some instances, PNU lost the parliamentary seat but Kibaki won the Presidential vote due to a ââ¬Ëconsolidation effectââ¬â¢. ââ¬Â¢ PNU and itââ¬â¢s pre-election affiliates (i.e. excluding Kalonzo Musyokaââ¬â¢s party) have a total of 75 seats. Again, it is not unfathomable for a President to be from such a team. 4. Raila won by between 500,000 votes and 1 million votes (read ââ¬ËLandslideââ¬â¢) - The US Amabassador recently said that though not committing on who they think won the elections, their analysis indicates that whoever won did so by no more than 100,000 votes. Of course their report is not infallible. But it seems to be consistent with opinion polls conducted just before the elections that showed a difference of 1% between the 2 leading candidates (approx. 100,000 votes of the 10M who voters who turned out) 5. On the ethnic violence ââ¬" In ODMââ¬â¢s final campaign rally in multi-ethnic Nairobi, Raila spoke in his native Luo language urging the crowd to give him Nairobi while Mudavadi did so in Luhya at the same venue. What would you have thought or felt if you were a Kikuyu who supports ODM and you were attending the rally? Though not necessarily a pointer to ethnic indifference, Kibaki to his credit never addressed a campaign rally in his native Kikuyu language even when in his home turf of Central Province where 99% of the population is Kikuyu. I agree that Kibaki should not force people to accept his leadership. But neither should Raila. Again, I say that I can't entirely tell who won the presidency and truth and justice in that regard is required. But even if he knows he will win, I am sure Kibaki will be unwilling to step down for fresh elections as long as Raila continues to take the moral high-round. Such an act will simply give Raila credibility that I am not sure he is altogether entitled to. But my saddest day for Kenyans was on Tuesday during the first day of parliament. Members from both sides of the divide shook hands laughing heartily despite their vitriol-filled public statements. As we kill each other ââ¬Ëfighting for our manââ¬â¢, our man is eating and drinking with the ââ¬Ëenemyââ¬â¢ (with whom by they way share business interests) in his lavish mansion watching us clowns on TV. God save us Kenyans from this foolish blindness! Stephen Nairobi, Kenya31 Jan 2008 12:27:49 GMT
Human blood is human blood! Red! You need not to pour any more blood of a single Kenyan out of the 43 tribes to prove this fact.Every tribe feel pain like any other. Please, Kenyans wake up! come and let us reason together! Isaiah1:18.Having eyes to see do we not see? Having minds to think! Do we not think? Having hearts to be touched, are we not touched? Having ears to hear do we not hear? Are our hearts hardened more than the heart of the ancient Pharaoh of Egypt? God has commanded again and again, "You shall not kill."Exodus20:13 Do we still kill? God challenged Cain, "Where is Abel your brother? Cain said, "I do not know: I am my brother's keeper? God asked, What have you done? The voice of your brother cries to me from the ground . And now you are cursed from the earth, which has opened her mouth to receive your brother's blood from your hands." Genesis4:8-16.Jesus Christ answered the wise lawyer, "Love the Lord your God with ! all your heart, soul, and mind." This is the first and the greatest commandment. The second most important is similar, "Love your neighbor as much as you love yourself Matthew22:36-40.Kenyans let us stop the bloodshed lest we are cursed by God, the earth and our ancestors.Kenyans must we hear God thundering with fire, earthquakes, storms and brimstones to know and understand that The LORD GOD is watching from the Throne in Glory. God have mercy on us all.Shalom!
04 Feb 2008 12:25:39 GMT
Nobody should blame the Western media for misreporting the current crisis. The government, despite all its massive resources, has failed to convey the message that President Kibaki won fair and square. ODM has such an effective and efficient propaganda machine. It has made Raila looks like a saint. There was massive rigging in ODM strongholds. During campaigns, they openly fomented tribal passions. It was the case of many tribes ganging up against a tribe that's the engine of the country's economy.