Vietnam has long grabbed headlines for its rapid economic growth. As Southeast Asia's newest Tiger, its meteoric rise was eclipsed only by neighbouring giant China. In a little over a decade, the country slashed its poverty rate from 58 to 18 percent, Asian Development Bank figures showed last year.

Even so, millions remain vulnerable. In 2004, some 16 million people were still classified as poor, while another 28 million were eking out an existence just above the official poverty line. Meanwhile, the gulf between rich and poor is increasing.

Against this backdrop comes a new report from Oxfam warning that millions could slide back into poverty unless action is taken to soften the blow of environment-related disasters.

"Vietnam is likely to be one of the most affected countries in the world if sea levels continue to rise at current rates," Steve Price-Thomas, Oxfam's country director in Vietnam, told AlertNet.

"A World Bank report shows that if sea level rises one metre, it would affect 11 percent of the population, impact 7 percent of agriculture and reduce gross domestic product by 10 percent."

Oxfam's report, Vietnam: Climate Change, Adaptation and Poor People, focuses on Ben Tre in the south and Quang Tri in the centre of the country. Coming just days after Tropical Storm Noul, the 10th storm to hit Vietnam this year, it offers few new statistics but plenty of personal stories.

Vietnam has a long history of natural disasters. Seventy percent of the population live in areas prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. In its 2008 Global Monitoring Report, the World Bank called it one of the most vulnerable countries in East Asia to weather extremes.

Lately, the intensity and frequency of disasters have increased, says Oxfam, leading to severe flooding, intense cold spells and long periods of drought in many parts of the country. According to climate scientists, Vietnam's three main cities have seen an annual temperature rise of between 0.4 and 0.8 degrees Celsius from 1991 to 2000.

Such changes in weather will affect the country's poor disproportionately since they lack the resources to rebuild lives and are ill-equipped to deal with the consequences, Oxfam says. Their vulnerability increases as climate change risks grow.

Women are the hardest hit. "They often cannot swim, have fewer assets to turn to for alternative livelihoods when crops are destroyed, and have fewer employment opportunities away from the home," the report says.

Poor pay the price

Local officials say Ben Tre, a low-lying and lush coastal province in the Mekong Delta known for its coconut groves and sleepy villages, recently started experiencing typhoons for the first time in nearly 100 years, which means local people have little experience dealing with such disasters.

Increased soil salinity due to rising sea levels is also causing problems for rice and prawn farmers. Villagers struggle to cultivate their land, some of which is now contaminated with salt water for up to eight months as opposed to the usual six months.

"This year at one point there were 30 parts per thousand of salt in the water compared to 11-12 ppt five years ago," said Ha Minh Ho, an official in Dai Hoa Loc commune. The Pacific Ocean averages between 32 and 35 parts per thousand.

"When it reaches 30 ppt, there is very little you can do except wait for the rainy season to come and take the salt water back down again to the sea."

One result is that many prawn farmers have not made any profits for the past three years and are facing debts they cannot repay.

In flood-prone Quang Tri, another coastal province, the unpredictability of the weather worries locals.

Already vulnerable to ordnance and toxic chemicals left by the U.S. military during the Vietnam War three decades ago, rice farmers here now complain about "rain coming at the wrong time". Regular flooding in some areas has increased from twice a year to four times a year.

Although Vietnam has disaster-reduction programs targeting the poor, Oxfam says they focus on response and reconstruction rather than long-term adaptation. In addition, they remain separate from wider policies on sustainable rural development and poverty reduction.

Price-Thomas said Oxfam hopes "the international community will play a major role in supporting the government of Vietnam's efforts to adapt to climate change, because the amounts of investment needed are beyond its budgetary capacity."

According to government officials, the national budget for disaster management and dyke building from 2010 to 2020 stands at $750 million - a figure that does not include plans for coping with climate change.

Oxfam's report is the latest attempt to shape the agenda ahead of major U.N. climate change negotiations in Poznan, Poland next month. The charity is calling for rich countries to cut global emissions by at least 80 percent and commit to funding poor countries like Vietnam.

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