NATURAL HAZARDS: GLOBAL OVERVIEW OF COUNTRIES OF CONCERN
November 2006
SUDAN (ODS)
Sudan:
The 2006 season was characterised by significant delays in the onset of the growing season in parts of places like Darfur, Sennar, Gedaref - Kassala and North Kordofan. A very wet August-September, however, rescued agricultural production in northern marginal areas and eastern production areas and consolidated a good season elsewhere. Though rainfall forecasts for November vary, near normal conditions are the most likely outcome.
Darfur:
Results from September’s Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment in Darfur indicate that while malnutrition rates among children under five rose slightly in 2006, they remained significantly below the 2004 rates. The assessment attributes these results to the sustained humanitarian relief effort, but cautions that escalating violence continues to erode the food security and could quickly reverse the gains made to date.
South Sudan:
A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission was undertaken from 7-21 October in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The mission estimated the 2006 cereal production and general food supply situation in South Sudan.
An inter-agency Annual Livelihoods and Needs Assessment was conducted in October. A report is expected in November highlighting food and non-food needs for 2007.
East Sudan:
A Nutrition and Food Security Assessment undertaken in Red Sea State in July has shown very high rates of malnutrition, with all localities exhibiting GAM above the 15 percent threshold and SAM above 3 percent. The nutritional status of women is of particular concern.
North-eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern and south-eastern Ethiopia continue to suffer food insecurity associated with poor pastoral conditions.
According to the UN CAP report, more than 15 million people are at risk due to drought, including eight million in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. The most affected populations are primarily located in pastoral areas of southern Somalia, northern Kenya, and southern and south-eastern Ethiopia. Many households continue to face a serious food security crisis or humanitarian emergency, and are highly vulnerable to further shocks. Most of the drought-affected pastoral and agro-pastoral populations will continue to need emergency humanitarian support at least through to the end of 2006.
According to FEWS NET, the seasonal climate forecast for the September to December rains is mixed but generally optimistic for most of the region. So far the short rains have been performing relatively well across the region, and especially heavy rains and flooding has been reported in pastoral areas in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. The crop outlook is also favourable due to abundant rains. Risk of flooding and subsequent losses continue even if lighter rains are received in the next few weeks.
DRC:
Food insecurity remains a major issue due to a combination of low quality seed stocks, limited access to appropriate agricultural tools, insect infestations, the impact of which is most acute among IDPs and returnee communities. Poor nutrition education remains an issue in other areas, however. WFP is only able to reach 500,000 of the 850,000 people targeted for food aid each month due to funding shortfalls. OCHA estimates there to be approximately 1.5 million IDPs in DRC, with more than 350,000 Congolese refugees residing in neighbouring countries according to UNHCR.
Somalia:
Heavy rains have caused flooding that has displaced thousands along the Juba and Shabelle river systems. The rains have significantly hampered relief efforts by making roads impassable, and are expected to last until December.
FEWS NET reports that while the number of Somalis facing a severe food and livelihood crisis has decreased to 1.8 million from 2.1 million during the first half of 2006, the geographic area facing severe food insecurity is now wider. Eighty per cent of people in need are in the south, with pastoral recovery continuing in the north.
Djibouti:
Though overall conditions are set to improve, pastoralists in the north-west livelihood zone will remain in a precarious food security situation for the next six months, as they must still contend with reduced income derived from animal products.
The increasing cost of the minimum expenditure basket in urban areas has surpassed the earning capacity of poor households. As a result, these households are being forced to reduce their dietary intake, and this could lead to increased malnutrition, especially among the most vulnerable groups.
Eritrea:
While food insecurity is likely to remain a serious issue, difficulty in obtaining accurate information regarding food security in Eritrea is a cause of concern.
The Kremti rains performed fairly well, albeit unevenly. Good harvests are expected, despite farmers having suffered from a lack of seeds to plant due to successive droughts and lack of assistance. While the Government of Eritrea has stopped food distributions in an effort to decrease dependency on food aid, overall some 2.2 million people are thought to be in need of assistance, although the extent of need is difficult to discern due to the unavailability of clear information and the complicated relationship between the Eritrean government and international aid agencies.
Ethiopia:
Forecasts indicate a high likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall for the period until December in most parts of Ethiopia. Precipitation levels warrant monitoring, however, as crops in many low-lying areas are beginning to exhibit signs of moisture-stress. The forecast by the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for the vulnerable areas of the south-eastern tip of the Somali Region is for a high probability of normal to above normal rainfall. Such an outcome would improve pasture and water availability, though it would still take time for food security to improve. Due to the destruction of crops by recent flooding some production shortfalls can be expected in agro-pastoral zones, which depend on recession agriculture in low and mid-altitude areas.
About three million people, 1.8 million of whom are pastoralists in the Somali, Afar and Borena regions, and some 200,000 of whom are flood victims, are expected to require emergency food assistance until December 2006.
Kenya:
Food insecurity in pastoral, agropastoral, and marginal agricultural areas, home to over a third of Kenya’s 31 million people, remains critical. Most drought affected households lost significant amounts of livestock during the height of the drought, and food security is now largely met by relief food. The short-rains season (October to December) is beginning, and its outcome will determine whether recovery takes hold or drought affected areas slide back into a similar crisis as experienced in late 2005 and early 2006. Rains have been encouraging thus far, however.
Rates of malnutrition are dangerously high in most pastoral districts, with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates ranging from 18 percent in Moyale to 30 percent in Marsabit district, well above the WHO’s emergency threshold of 15 percent. The Kenya Food Security Steering Group has recommended continuing emergency food assistance in 25 arid and semiarid areas until the next key harvest in March 2007.
Uganda:
According to FEWS NET, the main threats to food security are potential poor rains in eastern and northern Uganda, and a possible rise of maize grain prices due to a high local and regional demand. The report expresses concern over northern Uganda, where a poor season so far could hinder any efforts by IDPs to improve their food security and incomes. In Karamoja, poor production prospects could mean that food security conditions will deteriorate in early 2007, affecting about 50,000 people. Recent precipitation in Eastern and Northern Uganda has been abundant, however, raising expectations of a near-normal harvest if rains continue. Areas receiving too much rain, on the other hand, may suffer complications with the harvesting and storage of mature crops, potentially leading to crop losses.
The Uganda Department of Meteorology has revised its forecast, and is predicting an abundant rainy season that may extend to January or February 2007. Heavy rainfall in early November reportedly caused flooding that displaced hundreds in the north-east, an event that may be repeated elsewhere if the forecast is borne out.
Burundi:
Rains for the 2007 Season A started one month late, which is likely to prolong the lean season. The food security situation in the Northern and Eastern provinces is getting worse. There has been a reduction in household reserves in farms, and the lack of rainfall is preventing the effective commencement of the next agricultural season. Admissions in supplementary centres are increasing, and an increase in the use of negative coping mechanisms has been noted. Farmers have remained hesitant to sow for the 2007A season in view of the delayed rainfall.
A follow up of the hailstorm in Makamba and Cibitoke provinces during August has assessed that the beneficiary caseload in both provinces is need of food aid, as they have exhausted all their reserves.
Republic of Congo:
Advanced degradation of roads, poor soil fertility and the ravaging of the staple cassava crop by cassava mosaic are negatively affecting food security, particularly in the Pool region.
According to Health and Demographic Survey published in June, 18-21 percent of children in southern regions are underweight and about 8 percent are malnourished.
Rwanda:
Rwanda’s food security prospects have improved considerably with timely and favourable rains for the northern, western and southern provinces. The food security outlook for most parts of the eastern province remains precarious, however, as rains still have not stabilised enough to allow for consistent planting. The erratic rainfall may also have a negative impact on water and pasture conditions in the same province.
High food prices have restricted household food access, especially for poor households in chronically food insecure areas with limited access to land, and those who depend on casual labour for income. The reduced availability of planting seeds due to high prices may also have an impact on area planted particularly of beans.
Tanzania:
The harvest for the 2005-2006 cropping season has been completed, with the self-sufficiency ratio for the country in 2006-2007 projected at 110 percent, the highest in five years. There is a shortfall of cereals in central and northern parts of the country, however. The price of cereals is still high in those regions, resulting in substitution of non-cereal foods (tubers, pulses, etc). Many cereal surplus areas are located in the border regions of northern and southern highlands, and surpluses are therefore likely to be exported to neighbouring countries.
In central Tanzania (Singida and Dodoma), the ongoing dry season is causing the deterioration of forage conditions with negative consequences for pastoralists. Pasture and water availability will continue to decline in the central pastoral areas until the rains have resumed.
While this year’s harvest has been satisfactory, the situation in the region needs to be closely monitored as the tropical storm season is set to begin and the traditional “hunger season” before the April/May 2007 agricultural harvest approaches.
Tropical storm season in the southwest Indian Ocean runs from October to mid-April with a peak in January. It mainly affects the southeastern coast of Africa including Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania and Comoros. There are no seasonal forecasts so far; however, the presence of strong tropical storms should now be closely monitored up till the end of the season. Eleven storms on average develop per year.
The final estimate of the aggregate 2006 maize harvest in Southern Africa stands at an estimated 14.4 million tonnes, about 16 percent down from the output in 2005. Excluding South Africa, however, the sub-region’s 2006 maize and total cereal harvests represent historical record levels and are a significant improvement over the past year. The final official estimate in South Africa, puts the 2006 maize production at 6.6 million tonnes, sharply down from near record harvest of 11.7 million tonnes last year. Thus, despite good crops elsewhere, the sub-region’s aggregate 2006 coarse grain output is estimated by FAO at 15.8 million tonnes, about 14 percent down from 2005.
Food assistance needs in 2006/07 estimated at about 542 000 tonnes would, according to FAO, be lower than the average annual food aid of the previous five years, calculated at about 708 000 tonnes.
As the traditional “hunger season” before the April/May 2007 agricultural harvest approaches, WFP commodity forecasts indicate there will be critical pipeline shortfalls from November 2006 until June 2007. Due to relatively favourable harvests in most countries across the region during the 2005/06 agricultural season, vulnerable groups are only just now beginning to re-establish their resources, regain a measure of household food security, and rebuild coping mechanisms. While WFP has been able to support critically vulnerable groups and assist them on the road towards recovery during the past four years of drought like conditions, should there not be a significant improvement in the commodity and resource outlook, any previous gains that have been made will be seriously jeopardised.
Zimbabwe:
The Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee's (ZimVAC) 2006 report is indicating a total of 1.4 million people, or about 17 percent of the rural population, will be food insecure in the current consumption year. Consequently there is a need for the Government to import food to meet the gap. While some government imports are reportedly taking place, the quantities of food held in stocks in the country are unknown. Meanwhile, food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further as the hunger season peaks between November 2006 and March 2007, especially in cereal deficit areas of the country.
Malawi:
As a result of the favourable 2005/06 agricultural season, the country realised an estimated surplus of 500,000 tonnes of cereals out of a total harvest of 2.6 million tonnes. Despite the surplus, there are still localised hotspots in the country where the harvest failed due to dry spells and floods. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) estimates that 833,000 people will have little or no food at some point this agricultural season. In addition, 148,000 people are at risk of not meeting their food needs if the household economy deteriorates further as a result of high maize prices. The poor harvest from the 2004/05 agricultural season has already seriously eroded many household assets by forcing families to sell their resources.
While maize grain prices have remained fairly consistent, as the lean season approaches prices are starting to escalate. According to a recent WFP Humanitarian Food Security Update, rising market prices of maize and other commodities are a growing cause of concern in the early part of this lean season.
In response to the MVAC results, the Humanitarian Response Sub-Committee conducted a gap analysis of needs in food deficit areas, which humanitarian actors may use to develop appropriate responses. The Government has officially requested WFP to assist in meeting the needs of people who were affected by last year’s prolonged dry spell and floods in certain vulnerable districts. Discounting interventions by other organisations, WFP requires approximately 33,000 tonnes of food to meet the needs of 550,000 people until March 2007 under the Targeted Food Distribution for Assets project (TFDA). The current funding shortfall for the regional PRRO activities for Malawi from November 2006 to March 2007 is USD19 million, which currently represents a shortfall of 86 percent.
Angola:
The situation continues to be worrisome as an estimated 800,000 people in the southern and central parts of the country are at risk of food insecurity due to the failed 2005-2006 harvest and the onset of the hunger period.
Concerns exist regarding increasing numbers of malnourished children in southern and central Angola .
Concerns persist of the vulnerability of war-effected populations, including former IDPs, refugees and demobilised soldiers, whose resettlement has yet to be matched by effective reintegration activities. A significant number of refugees, who are returning from neighbouring countries, are not receiving assistance and often resettle in areas of difficult access. Humanitarian assistance activities to those populations are constrained due to under-funding,
According to the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission the 2006 total cereal production was 749 000 tonnes, some 15 percent lower than the record harvest of 2005, but still 9 percent higher than the average of the previous five years.
In light of the severe funding situation of the recovery operation, all activities related to transportation and distribution of food for beneficiaries have been suspended. While a progressive programme reduction and Government handover was planned to begin in 2008, due to funding constraints, WFP will be forced to close its operations in the latter part of 2006, leaving a small staff in order to provide technical support to the Government.
Madagascar:
Situation continues to need attention as inadequate rainfall at the beginning of the year has caused further aggravation to an already precarious food security situation and low nutrition levels, particularly in southern Madagascar. Moreover, the tropical storm season is set to begin.
According to a recent joint WFP/FAO and Government rapid food security assessment mission in the southeastern part of the country, pre-harvest lean season will start earlier this year in 17 out of the 21 communes visited due to erratic rainfall. Mission findings indicate approximately 50,000 people are at risk of food insecurity.
Zambia:
The situation is relatively stable as the agricultural season was generally good with widespread rainfall, despite the late onset of rains in parts of the north and east.
The final official 2006 estimates put maize and total cereal production at record levels of approximately 1.4 and 1.6 million tones, respectively. This represents a 50 percent increase over the drought-affected harvest of last year. Consequently, Zambia is estimated to have a potentially exportable surplus of about 180,000 tonnes assuming about 200,000 tonnes of closing stocks.
Lesotho:
The joint Government/FAO/WFP crop review estimates the harvest to be 6 percent higher than last year. The country produced 126,170 tonnes of cereals, leaving an import requirement of 294, 900 tonnes. About 222,000 tonnes are expected to be imported commercially leaving a cereal deficit of 72,900 to be covered through food aid.
The July 2006 Community Household Survey (CHS) found out that only 7 percent of the surveyed households identified agriculture as their main source of livelihood. In most areas, the poorer households depend on food aid and their numbers could increase if market prices rise substantially in the coming months. WFP had planned to assist up to 250,000 most food insecure people, mainly affected by HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis patients, orphans and vulnerable children. Only 90,000 are currently reached due to resource constraints.
Mozambique:
The vulnerability assessment carried out in May concluded that food security and nutrition in the country improved substantially, and the need for food assistance dropped by more than 30 percent among non-critical vulnerable groups. The baseline assessment currently being carried out will bring updated information on the food security and vulnerability situation.
After five consecutive years of production shocks, this is the first year with good agricultural performance. The country produced 2.3 million tons of cereals including carryover stock compared with a national requirement of 2.6 million tons.
According to a report from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, the majority of the country has increased chances of receiving normal to below-normal rainfall during October to December 2006. The Government is updating its 2006/07 Contingency Plan. The UN and WFP's specific plans will be updated on the same basis.
Namibia:
In spite of improved production (2006 estimates by the Namibia Early Warning and Food Information Unit, put the maize harvest at 52 000 tonnes, some 27 percent above last year’s and about 60 percent above the previous five-year average) the total cereal import requirement is still estimated to rise slightly to 164 000 tonnes of cereals, expecting certain stock adjustments to normal levels.
However, the specific WFP target groups in Namibia (Orphans and Vulnerable Children) continue to remain exposed to chronic food shortages at the household level, despite the relatively good harvest last season, and chronic malnutrition remains a major problem. For this particularly vulnerable group food assistance will be required until they can be absorbed into the Government's social safety net scheme, currently planned to take place during 2007.
Swaziland:
Situation needs monitoring as cereal production declined this year compared with 2005, primarily due to poor and unevenly distributed rainfall particularly in the Lubombo Plateau and the impact of HIV/AIDS on the country’s most vulnerable population.
Production together with carryover stock totalled about 81,000 tons of cereal compared with a consumption requirement of 195,000 tons.
Chronic food insecurity persists throughout the country owing to declining income-earning opportunities and remittances high levels of unemployment, and HIV/AIDS prevalence. With a self-sufficiency rate for cereals of only about one-third, Swazi population is mostly dependent on food imports.
Rates of acute child malnutrition in 8 countries exceed the WHO emergency threshold of 10 percent requiring urgent emergency response. Though good harvests are forecasted, Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso need special attention as the nutritional situation remains at crisis levels.
Central African Republic:
Harvesting of the first 2006 maize crop is nearly complete. Satellite data indicate that rains have been abundant and widespread since the beginning of the cropping season. However, a strong agricultural recovery is not expected due to persistent insecurity, notably in the north, and inadequate availability of agricultural inputs.
Most of the Central African Republic's population is facing chronic food insecurity, with approximately 73 percent of the population living in deep poverty. Chronic malnutrition affects 39 percent of the population, with some 10 percent of the children suffering from severe malnutrition. The standard of living is deteriorating, with less meat and dairy products available because the M'bororo pastoralists in the area have fled with their cattle across the border to Chad or Cameroon.
Chad:
The overall pest situation is calm. Grasshopper infestations were reported on cereal crops only in Pala region.
Nigeria:
An estimated 50,000 hectares of crops have been destroyed by locusts in the central part of the country.
Niger:
The harvest has begun in most regions of the country. Millet, niébé, groundnuts and other crops are being harvested. However, some areas are not having a good harvest due to late or uneven rains, floods and/or pests. In the Maradi region, 70 percent of the population reports that their stocks will last for only 4-5 months. It should be noted that in Niger there is only one cereal harvest per year. There remain pockets of food insecurity where the 2005 food crisis severely eroded the capacity of households to survive further shocks. Early millet harvests have reached markets and prices are declining. Heavy rains late in the season caused flooding and crop damage, but excess moisture will be very beneficial for off-season cropping.
After locust infestations were recently found in north-western Mauritania, the Government of Niger and humanitarian actors are closely monitoring the situation. Indigenous locusts can be found in Agadez region and in northern areas of Tahoua region, however the situation is considered to be under control for the moment.
Senegal:
Increasing violence in Casamance has raised fears that the instability is spreading. The general crop situation is positive, with some areas facing shortages.
Refugees from Senegal's southern Casamance region continue to arrive in Gambian villages along the border. UNHCR reports that over 800 crossed the border from Senegal to The Gambia during the second half of October, bringing the total to more than 6,200 Senegalese refugees in The Gambia. In Senegal, WFP reports that local authorities estimate around 1,100 the number of newly arrived IDPs currently staying with host families in the Fogny/Sindian area. The estimate for January 2007 is 7,500 refugees if the current movement continues. In areas where IDPs have returned without any assistance, various obstacles have continued to hamper their sustainable reintegration such as the limited social infrastructures and services and the presence of mines that impede them from resuming farming.
Following irregular and insufficient rains in most parts of the country at the beginning of the cropping season, precipitation increased significantly in August over the main producing areas, thus reconstituting soil water reserves and improving crop prospects. Crops continued to benefit from good rains, notably in the south. However, as plantings were delayed and replanting carried out in several regions, crops and pastures will need rains late in the season to cover their entire growing cycle.
The overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, localised food insecurity was reported in several regions of the country due mainly to marketing problems in the groundnut sector which is the main source of cash income for most rural households.
Burkina Faso:
Some 20,000 people have been affected by severe floods that have caused fears of serious cholera and malaria outbreaks.
In western Burkina Faso, flood waters have destroyed wells and latrines, prompting concern that the drinking water could become contaminated by water-borne diseases.
Harvest prospects improved significantly following widespread and above-normal rains in August. However, due to the erratic start of the rainy season, stages of crop development vary by regions and are generally late compared to normal years, except in the west and south-west. Crop development is particularly late in the north-eastern province of Gnagna. Due to the delayed rains and initial dry conditions, rains will need to continue through October to allow crops to reach full maturity. Pockets of dryness have been observed in the Sahelian area of the country.
Guinea:
Of particular concern is the Forest region, which has been isolated from the rest of the country since August 2006. Due to ongoing rainfall and poor road conditions, the main access routes are blocked for most of the vehicles. This situation places the region’s population under great hardship, as prices of basic foods, such as rice, and fuel have increased sharply. The lack of road access hinders WFP’s ability for dispatching food and carrying out other WFP activities.
Some 28,000 refugees are still dependent on humanitarian assistance in the country while rice crop prospects for 2006 are improving following increased precipitation. Following recommendations of the UNHCR/WFP JAM mission of last July, WFP currently provides targeted food aid to 15,000 refugee beneficiaries.
Guinea Bissau:
Parts of Guinea-Bissau are facing severe food insecurity. However the beginning of the main rice harvest in December is expected to improve the food situation.
The majority of the Guinea-Bissau population is facing chronic food insecurity, with a stagnant economy and 65 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
Seed shortages were reported in the southern regions of Quinara and Tombali, affected by a serious decline in rice output in 2005 due to high tides that caused seawater intrusions in mangrove rice fields. FAO and the Government have implemented seed distributions in the area. WFP is currently providing relief assistance to some 67,000 food insecure people in Quinara and Tombali.
Precipitation and soil moisture have been generally adequate since the beginning of the growing season, allowing satisfactory development of crops
Although ongoing tensions in the Casamance region of Senegal have not yet affected adjacent areas of Guinea-Bissau, the situation should be closely monitored.
Mauritiana:
The crop situation in the south of Mauritania is likely to deteriorate if rainfall doesn’t improve. Tensions are likely to rise with the upcoming municipal elections scheduled for 19 November. Fears of a locust invasion in the north-west.
Reduced rains during the first two decades of October in the western and central agricultural and agropastoral areas have caused the withering of rainfed crops in the areas of Brakna, Gorgol, Hodh el Gharbi, Assaba and Guidimakha. In most of these provinces rainfall has been lower than 2005 and dry periods have already affected the development of early crops, before the premature end of the rains. Complete development of crops will depend on the rainfall outcome of the last part of October. Despite a good harvest of early sorghum and millet, the overall cereal supply is poor.
According to the National Locust Centre of Mauritania, swarms of desert locusts are currently at the mating stage in the north-western province of Inchiri. Although the situation is under control, the upcoming hatching of eggs is raising fears of an invasion at the height of the growing season.
Mali:
After erratic and below average rains until late June, which necessitated replanting in most regions and shortened the growing season, precipitation has increased significantly from mid-July, and remained abundant in August and crops are developing satisfactorily. However, stages of development vary greatly, due to the late and erratic start of the rainy season. Harvesting of early maize crops has started in some regions and transplanting of irrigated rice is still underway. In the areas affected by earlier dry conditions, yield potential will be reduced and late plantings and replanting will need rains until October to cover their entire growing cycle.
Pastures are generally good. Grain-eating birds, grasshopper infestations, army worms and rodents are reported in several regions. The desert locust situation is calm but scattered adults are likely to be present in the north with small-scale breeding expected.
Some 1.9 million Afghans are in need of emergency food assistance as inadequate and poorly distributed precipitation has resulted in severe losses of harvest in mostly rain-fed agro-ecological zones, as well as serious water shortages.
On top of the 6.5 million people already chronically food insecure, the country is facing this year an imminent food crisis due to inadequate rainfall in the months of April and May. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the food shortage to be 1.2 million metric tons, one quarter of annual consumption.
An estimated 90,000 people in the northern region are reported to be facing critical shortages of potable water. Inadequate rainfall has resulted in 50-80 percent losses in the production of rainfed cereals and is causing severe water shortages in several northern provinces, especially in the northwest. The associated impact on irrigation reserves has also resulted in significantly reduced yields of irrigated wheat. It is feared that the situation could deteriorate in the lean winter months in some northern and western areas where the entire 2006 harvest has been lost and water tables have receded significantly.
Sri Lanka:
The main 2006 Maha rice crop, harvested in March/April, was officially estimated at some 2.1 million tons, 120,000 tons above last year’s production. Harvesting of the 2006 irrigated Yala rice crop is underway. Aggregate paddy production in 2006 is provisionally forecast at 3.3 million tons, slightly higher than last year’s bumper crop.
Bangladesh:
Thousands of people have been affected by severe flooding in various areas of the country. Water-logging from earlier floods (August-September) in the low-lying southwest districts remains a problem affecting approximately 100,000 households. Although relief interventions have increased in the recent period, there is a general consensus that more rehabilitation and recovery assistance is needed.
DPR Korea:
Food insecurity is likely to further deteriorate in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as a result of reduced food aid and crop damage due to July floods.
The July floods totally or partially destroyed 23,400 houses and left some 19,000 families homeless, causing extensive damage to crops and infrastructure as well as kitchen garden plots. On 23 October, 7,300 people were left homeless by high tidal waves triggered by torrential rains and fierce winds that struck four counties and two cities of the east coastal province of Kangwon. The situation is gradually improving thanks to the joint effort of the local Government and the Red Cross to assist the affected people.
Harvesting of the 2006 main season crops of rice, maize, and potatoes is underway. A lower output than last year is expected. FAO has recently estimated that the cereal requirements for the country are now above 1,000,000 tonnes. The harvesting of paddy is in progress and most of the harvested paddy is still in the farms awaiting transportation.
Nepal:
The continuous drought situation combined with the recent floods and landslides during the monsoon have resulted in sections of the country reaching concerning levels of deteriorating food security. Recent crop analysis estimate that approximately 900,000 people live in areas classified as having deteriorating or acute food security issues.
The Ministry of Agriculture, WFP and FAO are currently conducting a joint crop assessment mission, investigating crop production and its impact on household food security in 14 drought and flood-impacted districts in Nepal. The results of the joint mission will be a key input into whether or not additional food support from WFP will be needed after December 2006.
By mid-October, over 125,000 people have received relief assistance in drought affected areas of the mid-and far west.
Philippines:
Typhoon Xangsane affected more than 3.9 million people to various extents and destroyed more than 103,000 houses in the central islands and in the capital Manila. In the province of Davao del Norte, in the southern island of Mindanao, some 9,000 families have also been affected by floods triggered by heavy rains. Typhoon Cimaron has recently affected thousands of families in the northern island of Luzon, triggering flash floods and landslides.
Myanmar:
Recent flooding in October affected some 10,000 people in Mandalay who fled to emergency shelters after more than 3000 homes and 360 hectares of farmland were inundated due to floods triggered by heavy rains. Flooding has also occurred in Rangoon and other regions of the country. Needs are now being responded to. However, the onset of dry season (Nov – Feb) may alleviate the impact of floods, although it is traditionally the period when outbreaks of infectious diseases increase. The curtailment of the proposed country-wide measles vaccination campaign by the Government is a particular concern albeit that an alternative strategy is being negotiated.
Thailand:
The alert level is still high after torrential rains caused the worst flooding in 40 years. Forty-three provinces have been affected by floods in the north, northeast and central regions of Thailand since late August, affecting up to 1.8 million people. According to officials, some 262,000 hectares of rice fields and farmland have been destroyed and at least 138,000 people have fallen ill, mostly from water-borne diseases. Flooding is expected to continue.
India:
Unprecedented flooding has affected more than ten million people in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Millions of people have been rendered homeless and in need of food assistance.
Because of the shortfall in this year’s government held stocks and rising prices, imports are forecast to reach a 30-year high of at least 6 million tons. Large increases of the cereal production are expected, despite localised droughts.
Indonesia:
Food crops presently in the ground are secondary/dry season paddy and maize, which are due for harvest from late October. The 2006 aggregate paddy production is officially forecast at about 54.8 million tons, the third consecutive good crop, reflecting the ample irrigation water supplies. The 2006 maize crop is forecast at some 12.5 million tons, the same level as last year. The overall food supply situation in Indonesia is satisfactory. While the national cereal supply position is satisfactory, a large number of the poorest population, especially those affected by recent natural disasters, continue to be in need of international food assistance.
The mud disaster in Sidoarjo, East Java continues to be problematic and has now displaced over 6,000 people. These people are currently living in government supplied shelters. Over 300ha of paddy field have been lost as a result of the mud flow and 18 schools have been inundated. Efforts to protect residential areas are underway. Irrigation channels are being built to channel the mud flow into a local river and eventually into the ocean.
Delay in the onset of rainy season, particularly for southeast and eastern parts of Indonesia, as well as rainfall reduction during the 2006/2007 rainy season is projected due to the effect of El Niño conditions.
Monitoring on water availability in paddy fields of Java and Bali still reveal the water shortage along the northern coast of Java.
Fire hotspots in Kalimantan and Sumatra islands increased sharply, particularly in South Sumatera (Ogan Komering Ilir district) and Central Kalimantan (East Kotawaringin district).
Due to heavy rain, access to Aceh Jaya District is limited by damage to roads and bridges. Possible delays in food distribution during November are expected. UNHAS flights are still crucial to enable travel especially for urgent official trips.
Some 50,000 families who lost their homes in the May earthquake in Java are still without sufficient shelter for the approaching rainy season.
Talang Volcano is the latest of the numerous volcanoes in Indonesia to have been updated to alert level 3. The most active and worrisome volcanoes are Mount Merapi and Mount Karangetang.
Mongolia:
Most parts of the country have experienced normal rainfall and temperatures this summer and the output of wheat crop is provisionally forecast around the average level of 127,000 tons. This will cover only about 33 percent of domestic wheat utilization, leaving an estimated import requirement for 2006/07 of 256,000 tons.
Unfavourable winter conditions and drought over the past few years have substantially depleted household coping mechanisms and have resulted in an increase in poverty. A joint UN food security expert consultation and food security assessment mission will visit the country in October 2006.
Pakistan:
The food security situation in the drought-affected areas continues to be severe while tens of thousands have been affected by heavy flooding and crop damage, especially in the Sindh region.
Harvesting of the 2006 paddy and coarse grain crop in Pakistan is underway. Paddy production in 2006 is forecast to be less than last year’s record, but higher than the average. The Balochistan Government has declared thirteen districts as most severely drought-affected areas. The livelihood sources of the population at large are under severe strain.
Some 50,000 families have been affected by flooding in the Sindh region, 200 people have died and over 10,000 have been hospitalised. Over 66,000 quake-affected people are feared to be without permanent shelter. Up to 80 percent of the crops have been completely lost and large numbers of livestock have died.
Vietnam:
Typhoon Xangsane swept away a number of provinces, destroying nearly 20,000 houses and damaging more than 270,000.
The aggregate paddy output in 2006 is expected to be record at 36.7 million tons, reflecting increased plantings and higher yields. The 2006 maize crop is estimated at 3.8 million tons, similar to last year’s record. With this production, the country is self-sufficient in maize.
Despite earlier forecasts of above average activity, the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project (TMP) anticipates that the 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season will be considerably less active. It is now expected that the current season will have slightly less hurricane activity than the long-term average. TMP forecasts no tropical cyclone activity in November, largely due to the rapid emergence of an El Niño event during the latter part of the northern summer.
Bolivia:
The El Chaco Region has been declared under emergency due to drought. A preliminarily assessment of the food security situation in several communities of Gutierrez and Charagua has not found a food crisis, but water for people and animals is scarce.
Haiti:
The early forecast for 2006 aggregate maize production is 180,000 tonnes, slightly below the last five years’ average. Paddy production continues its declining trend due to the reduction in planted areas, itself a consequence of insufficient maintenance of irrigation infrastructure in Artibonite Department. Paddy production in 2006 is expected to be low at 94,000 tonnes. Import requirements for the 2006/07 year are anticipated to be about 270,000 tonnes of wheat and 320,000 tonnes of rice.
Honduras:
Lack of rainfall has raised concerns over the quality of postrera crops, especially in the departments of Olancho, Fransisco Morazan and El Paraiso. Crop losses are a possibility if significant rainfall is not received soon. Although lighter showers are expected during the period, their benefits for agriculture are expected to be minimal.
Approximately 400 families in 16 communities in Olancho Department continue to face hardship and food insecurity due to the affects of rat plague. Losses of staple crops mean that affected households will reportedly face a deficit of about 65 percent of their food needs until December or January, when the postrera crop is harvested.
Cuba:
The harvest of 2006 sugar cane crop is completed, and raw sugar output is early forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, below last year's negative record of 1.3 million tonnes. The poor result is essentially due to the progressive reduction of acreage and milling capacity that started in 2003 as a consequence of unattractive sugar international prices. Wheat and rice imports in the 2006/07 year are forecast to be 950,000 tonnes and 750,000 tonnes respectively, very close to last year.
Ecuador:
According to the National Geophysical Institute, volcanic activity at Tungurahua Volcano increased markedly on 18 October, before decreasing slightly on 19 October. Volcanic activity and risk of eruption is considered moderate to high, and is accompanied by constant ash fall, lava flows and incandescent rocks. Loud roars coming from the volcano have also been reported. The evacuated population continues living in nine temporary shelters.
Guatemala:
Heavy rains in late October led to flooding and landslides that affected at least 20,000 people and reportedly left 10,000 homeless. At least seven rivers in the south of the country have been affected and 40 villages flooded. WFP is monitoring the situation closely and will assess and respond to food aid requirements as necessary. A premature end to the current rainy season and a late beginning of the next one is forecast. The dry season is expected to begin with cold waves during the months of November-January.
Maize production covers approximately 50 per cent of domestic demand, and import requirements for the 2006/07 year are forecast at about 645,000 tonnes, slightly more than last year. Chronic malnutrition in Guatemala affects 46.4 percent of the population under five years of age.
Nicaragua:
Two consecutive poor seasons in the narrow stretch of land between Lake Nicaragua and the Pacific Ocean have begun to have an impact. Despite the fact that the majority of crops grown in the region are drought resistant, conditions are starting to deteriorate, and a significant moisture deficit has now accrued in the area.
El Salvador:
A Yellow Alert, Phase III, was briefly issued during the reporting period for the Chaparrastique (San Miguel) Volcano, which is the maximum before an eruption is deemed eminent and evacuations begin. The population living in the immediate area is estimated at 47,000, while San Miguel is only 10 km to away and has an estimated population of 291,000. WFP has been in close contact with Civil Defence authorities and pre-positioned food in preparation of attending possible evacuated populations.
GLOBAL: EL NINO / SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) FORECAST
El Niño conditions are likely to continue into early 2007.
Ocean temperature measurements increased markedly in the equatorial Pacific region during September, leading to the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration NOAA to issue an unscheduled advisory declaring that weak El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue, possibly strengthening into moderate conditions by early 2007.
During such episodes, the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation typically become disrupted. Extra-tropical storms and frontal systems may follow paths that are significantly different from normal, resulting in persistent temperature and precipitation anomalies in many regions. Rainfall is usually reduced over the area including Indonesia, Malaysia and northern Australia, a phenomenon already recorded in these countries, as well as the Philippines, over the last 30 days. This dryness can be expected to continue for the remainder of 2006. On the other hand, El Nino is usually followed by increased rainfall and risk of flooding in East Africa .
Avian and Human Influenza:
It is anticipated that with the 2006/2007 winter period arriving in the Northern Hemisphere, the spread of the virus will accelerate again.
The H5N1 virus spread more rapidly in early 2006 than any other virus in recorded history. It is causing a devastating avian influenza epizootic across 3 continents and has proved an aptitude to infect and kill humans.
Its ability to mutate and the risk for it to become efficiently transmissible from human to human could trigger a global human influenza pandemic. WHO remains at a high alert status saying it could happen anytime.
A full-blown human influenza pandemic could, at least temporarily, cause significant disruption of social, economic and political life on a global scale and thus seriously affect WFP’s ability to operate, and serve its beneficiary case-load.
WFP is continuing to enhance its pandemic preparedness focusing on the UN’s 3 objectives (Staff Health and Safety, Continuity of Operations, Programmes in support to National Governments.)
