Police crackdowns and the threat of a new war with Eritrea turned a year of optimism into a time of anxiety in Ethiopia, writes Beverley Jones, joint country representative for the Catholic Agency for Development and Trócaire.

What a difference a year makes. This time last year Ethiopia conjured up the 20th anniversary of Live Aid and the great Ethiopian Famine of the mid-80s. The Make Poverty History focus on Africa and all the hopes of fairer trade, debt cancellation and increased aid, meant that journalists flocked to the place, pursuing in-depth stories, and joining them was also Tony Blair’s Africa Commission entourage.

One story was that the rains had failed in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, and hunger threatened again. Travelling in the region, I saw parched earth and harvest half its normal height. Farmers took in what they could, earlier than usual, and herds of cattle ambled past without the normal sheen and plumpness associated with the season of good forage. Yet, despite this, it was a hopeful time for Ethiopia as it approached 2005, the year when more than at any other time, the world’s leaders were focussed on what could be achieved for Africa to reverse the trends of the continent.

This year could have been hopeful too. At least some gains were made over the summer at Gleneagles on debt relief and aid. (Fairer trade will have to wait while vested interests are tackled.) Donor governments were more willing to lend financial support to Ethiopia’s Poverty Reduction programme. The country’s economic growth was in double figures and the rapid increase in small towns was helping the economy to take off. The General Election held in May passed with impressive peace and stability.

Flying back to the capital Addis Ababa from Tigray last week, light green swirls of ripening ‘teff’ (Ethiopia’s revered staple grain) and wheat stretched as far as the eye could see, interspersed with the round, golden hayricks where the harvest had already been gathered. The threshing circles have begun, farming families and their oxen pounding the grain and winnowing out the husks in wide-lipped baskets. Except in a few pockets in the east of Tigray, people say the harvest this year is the best for three years.

WANING OPTIMISM

Yet optimism is waning now in Tigray. Hope amongst ordinary people has given way to fear. What has over shadowed their hope is the menacing simmering tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the unresolved border dispute which has now reached the stage where unofficially the United Nations and others fear that war may resume once the harvest is in. As one woman farmer told us, ‘We know something is happening. Perhaps the men know – but they don’t tell us.’

Put simply, Ethiopia wants negotiation before implementing the border demarcation agreement reached in The Hague in 2002 because it believes that some aspects of the agreement are unworkable; Eritrea wants negotiation after demarcation has been implemented because this is what was agreed by both sides at the end of the last war in 2000. To reinforce their particular stands, each side has deployed extensive military personnel and weaponry along1000 km of the border.

This is not the story of how the process after the Ethiopian General Elections gave way to civil unrest, or of the grievances felt by each country over the border. It is about how the investment of human energy and creativity built up over years can be wiped out quickly when volatile political processes are derailed, and when fragile border agreements reach a dangerous level of stalemate.

If war starts, the losses in both countries could be devastating.

I have been travelling in the region since 1991, and it’s impossible not to admire the transformation that has taken place in many parts of Tigray over fourteen years: the waves of uniform-clad school children making their way to and from school every day, the road systems which have been developed, and the growth in small businesses and enterprises, including a revival of its tourism business. It’s not easy to make big business successful in Tigray, especially when the closed Eritrean border increases the geographical isolation of the region. Nevertheless, there are factories producing pharmaceuticals, textiles and cement, there’s a credit institution modelled on the Grameen Bank from Asia and a nascent honey industry. Tigray produces the most exquisite white honey which, with investment in more hygienic production and packaging methods, could be top class.

DONORS IN RETREAT

Population growth and other factors have increased the vulnerability of peasant farmers whose small-holdings rarely exceed half a hectare. Yet amongst farmers, government departments, Tigrayan NGOs like the Relief Society of Tigray and Adigrat Diocesan Catholic Secretariat, and Mekelle University, the scale of endeavour to test out new ideas is impressive. It’s that spirit which will help this region cope with any conflict to come, and rebuild after the war has passed. We only wish there was a way of preventing the Ethiopians and Eritreans from having to go through yet another war, only five years after the last one.

In addition to the fear of war which has led to threats of sanctions from the UN Security Council if both Eritrea and Ethiopia don’t pull back from the brink, Ethiopia is grieving over other changes. The civil unrest of recent months, leading to tragic loss of life, has led to a closing down of relationships between government, civil society, the press and private sector. No one knows quite when these will be revived although there are some small glimmers of hope. Donors are in retreat, wondering how best they can spend aid money well in Ethiopia under the current situation, where there are concerns about human rights abuses on all sides and private investment has been put on pause.

We know from our own histories in Europe that democratic transition comes neither quickly nor peacefully, nor in isolation from one’s neighbours. The culture changes it demands can often be profoundly destabilising. Ethiopia, with all its complexity, can perhaps be forgiven for stumbling along the way.