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Kenneth Bacon: planning for the worst, hoping for the best.
Photo: REFUGEES INTERNATIONAL
Kenneth Bacon is president of AlertNet member Refugees International (RI), a Washington-based advocacy organisation. Founded in response to the forced repatriation of Indo-Chinese refugees in 1979, RI is a non-governmental organisation serving refugees, displaced persons, and other dispossessed people. He writes that humanitarian planning is essential to reduce the suffering of the Iraqi people if a war goes ahead. Everybody recognises that an American led attack against Iraq could lead to a humanitarian disaster, characterised by civilian casualties, massive human displacement, food shortages and interruptions of crucial services, such as electricity, water and health care.If Iraq were to use chemical or biological weapons, addressing these problems could be both dangerous and almost unimaginably complicated. Unlike Afghanistan, where relief agencies have been working for years, there is little U.N. and relief organisation infrastructure to deal with a humanitarian disaster in Iraq. Stockpiling food, assembling supplies and medicine and building relief teams will take planning, time and money, mainly from the United States.The U.S. government, the U.N. and relief organisations are all working to find ways to minimise the impact of conflict on civilians.However, they have been working on parallel, but separate, tracks that don’t allow for adequate coordination. The reasons for this are clear.The United States doesn't want to reveal details of its war plans. The U.N. is reluctant to look like it is in league with the United States in planning for a war that Secretary-General Kofi Annan says he hopes can be avoided.NGOs don’t want to get too close to the military, out of fear that they will appear to be humanitarian agents of the attacking forces. Fortunately, the parallel planning processes are beginning to merge; there is increasing dialogue between among NGOs and the U.N. and increasing contact between NGOs and the U.S. government, although contacts with the military remain very limited.Much of the credit for this change goes to InterAction, the umbrella organisation for 160 international relief and development agencies. Although the contact is late in coming and still very cautious, it is a step in the right direction. Agencies are planning for the worst, while hoping for the best. Here are the most urgent issues on the table:ACCESS TO IRAQ: Under current laws, U.S. citizens must get permission from the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) in the U.S. Treasury to go to Iraq. For months, OFAC has made it impossible for all but a handful of agencies to send people to Iraq to survey humanitarian conditions, talk to the U.N. and local officials and begin to look at sites for future operations. Although officials claim that OFAC is ready to start approving more applications, the lack of access has impeded planning. DISPLACED PERSONS AND REFUGEES: A recent study by the Brookings Institution estimated that as many as a million people may be displaced within Iraq because of Saddam Hussein’s policies to move or repress Shi’a and Kurds. They are among the most vulnerable people in the country. War would likely displace many more people from their homes and cities, while provoking large numbers -- perhaps millions -- to attempt to the flee the country. Yet Turkey and Iran, the primary destinations for refugees, have said they will close their borders to Iraqis, even though both countries are signatories to the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention. Protecting refugees and displaced persons is going to be difficult under any circumstance, but it would be easier to help them in camps outside of Iraq than inside. In any case, it is necessary to start stockpiling food, shelter and medicine near likely refugee locations. FOOD: The U.N. Oil for Food Program feeds much of the Iraqi population, and the UN estimates that 60 percent of the people depend totally on the program to meet their nutritional needs. Both the U.N. and the United States assume that the there will be a break in this vital food pipeline during a conflict and both are looking for ways to reconstitute the food distribution programme as quickly as possible. In the central and southern parts of the country, where the government of Iraq manages the distribution, there are severe nutritional shortages, despite steady increases in food shipments since the Oil for Food Program started six years ago. A recent survey by the U.N. Children's Fund UNICEF found that in the central and southern regions, 23 percent of children under five years old were suffering from chronic malnutrition characterised by stunted growth. Nutritional conditions are better in the northern part of the country, where the U.N. runs the food distribution program. But there are not large food reserves in the country, so the quick resumption of the programme is crucial. ge food reserves in the country, so the quick resumption of the programme is crucial. In the event of war, there are targeting and troop deployment steps that the U.S. military could take to hold civilian casualties and disruption to a minimum. For instance, occupying and protecting northern Iraq could prevent massive death and displacement of the Kurdish minority. But intense and coordinated humanitarian planning is also key to reducing the humanitarian impact of war and to helping to rebuild Iraq.Humanitarian costs must be part of the calculus of war, and the U.S. must take the lead in confronting them. Preparation to save the people of Iraq is at least as important as planning to remove the president of Iraq.Website: http://www.refintl.org
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