Rainfall forecast models indicate heavy totals are expected in southern Tanzania and northern Madagascar during the observation period of February 7 - 13, 2008. Those areas are suffering minor rainfall deficits; however, this rain has the potential to further recent flooding in northern Madagascar associated with Tropical Cyclone Fame.

Flooding continues in parts of southern Africa. Rains are expected to weaken during the coming observation period,providing some relief to those affected by flooding.

The second consecutive failed short-rains season has negatively impacted crop conditions, pasture generation and water supply for much of Kenya. The impacts of the long-term dryness will be felt for some time, at least until the start of the March to May season.

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