Food security continues to worsen in central and Shabelle regions and among the poor urban poor and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the south. Because of La Niña, associated with drier-than-normal conditions, pasture and water resources throughout the key pastoral areas of the country are being depleted early, leading to a deepening crisis among pastoral communities.

The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance and livelihood support for at least the next six months will continue to increase from the current level of roughly 2 million people to as high as to 2.5 million, a figure that includes urban poor households in the south and central regions.

In addition to a poor deyr 2007 (October to December) harvest, high international food prices, hyperinflation, civil insecurity, and restricted inter-regional and cross border trade have resulted in low supplies of staple foods in reference markets and abnormally high cereal prices. Consequently, food access and livelihood stability is deteriorating rapidly.

In the most-likely scenario through June 2008, the food security situation in many parts of the country, especially in the livestock dependent areas of the central regions, is expected to deteriorate further, while parts of northeast and northwest will be at moderate risk of an Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis.

In the worst-case scenario, the gu (April-June) rains will fail, and armed conflict will escalate, displacing more people, further restricting trade, market, and humanitarian access, all leading to further increases in prices. In this scenario, the food security of pastoral and ago-pastoral communities, displaced populations, and the urban poor in the southern, and central regions, as well as parts of the northeast and northwest, would deteriorate significantly, leading to high levels of food insecurity, affecting more than 2.5 million people who would require humanitarian assistance and livelihood support.

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