Food security is deteriorating for households throughout Kenya. A poor October to December short-rains season in most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas has decreased pasture availability and reduced household access to food from on-farm production. Food security has decreased for normally food-secure households in Rift Valley, Nyanza, and central and western Kenya following the adverse effects of the post-election crisis since late December 2007, which disrupted production and trade and displaced farmers, business persons and casual laborers. About 830,000 people currently require emergency assistance.

From July to September, calmness is expected to return to the conflict-affected areas of the country, allowing trade to increase and some displaced households to return home. However, food availability will be below normal due to disruptions in planting activities for the 2008 long-rains harvest. Additionally, the long rains are expected to be poor in northern and eastern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of the country, further depleting pasture availability and limiting household production, causing an increase in the number of households that are highly food insecure.

In the worst-case scenario, the poor performance of the long rains will extend to the northwest and southern pastoral areas, leading to localized extreme food insecurity. The political crisis may not be fully resolved, causing further reduction in the 2008 long-rains harvest and a significant increase in food prices in the third quarter. The food security of displaced households will decline further, as many would be unable to leave camps to access their livelihoods, and host families would no longer be able to continue housing IDPs due to the erosion in their own purchasing capacities. The number of people requiring emergency assistance could increase to 2.4 million.

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