Food security is generally normal in the western crop-dependent parts of the country where the main meher 2007 season production was one of the highest on record. In the eastern half of the Ethiopia, however, the crop-dependent as well as the pastoral and agro-pastoral populations remain moderately to extremely food insecure due to repeated shocks. Areas in SNNPR in the south that depend on sweet potato as a transitional crop during their hunger period (March to May) are extremely food insecure as the February sweet potato harvest failed following failed rains in December and January.

In the most-likely scenario from April through September, food security is expected to deteriorate further. The March to May rains are expected to be poor, which will extend the hunger period that normally occurs during the January to March dry season. Pastoral and agro-pastoral areas, where these months constitute the main rainy season, will be most affected. Additionally, prices will continue to rise, and emergency responses will likely be late and inadequate.

In the worst-case scenario, both the March to May and the June to September rains will be much below normal. This would lead to significant reductions in crop production in the northeastern highlands and parts of SNNPR and even more severe shortages of pasture and water in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the south and southeast. Prices of food would likely escalate even more sharply, further hampering access to food for poor and some middle-income households in both urban and rural areas and increasing levels of acute malnutrition and destitution. The number of people requiring assistance would increase significantly from current levels and those in the most-likely scenario

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