Successive droughts, high staple food prices, decreased remittances, high inflation, border conflict with Eritrea, limited availability of staple foods and a lack of sufficient resources to respond adequately to the current food crisis may lead to famine in certain areas, particularly in the northwest and southeast pastoral livelihood zones. High and extreme food insecurity already exist in most pastoral areas. FEWS NET estimates that 155,000 people (including 25,000 children under five years) in both rural and urban areas, currently require emergency aid. In the worst case, a total of 341,000 people (54 percent of the population) are expected to need emergency food and water supplies by August.

Rainfall in June rarely exceeded 10 mm, and the coastal belt of Obock, the grazing area between Tadjourah and Obock (Weeli Sector), and pockets in Arta district near the Loyadda between Somaliland and Djibouti received no precipitation at all. Although June is usually dry, this level of rainfall was still 50 - 95 percent below normal.

There is also a high likelihood that the food security situation of poor urban households will deteriorate to extreme levels during this summer due to a combination of high prices, high unemployment and typical seasonal income declines. In addition to increased obstacles to food access, Djibouti city is facing critical water shortages and water rationing has been initiated by the Government. In combination with the issues raised above, these shortages are contributing to an increased likelihood of social unrest and political instability.

Women and children displaced by the conflict between Eritrea and Djibouti have regrouped in Khor-Angar and Andoli. Men have migrated further inland to look for a more permanent save haven. Forty families in Khor- Angar and seven families in Andoli are receiving food aid and other assistance from UN organizations (e.g., WFP, UNICEF, UNHCR).

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