Food Security Summary:

The results of the 2008 belg season needs assessment suggest that high and rising staple food prices are compounding already extreme levels of food insecurity. While the official estimate of people in need of emergency food assistance in June stood at 4.6 million people nationally, this number is expected to increase considerably in light of the assessment results.

In southern and southeastern Ethiopia, including the southern zones of Somali Region, pastoral and agropastoral populations remain highly to extremely food insecure due to successive seasons of below-average rains, flooding in riverine areas, livestock disease, an armyworm infestation, conflict, inadequate humanitarian assistance, and extremely high prices of food. Most water points in Somali Region and neighboring lowlands of Oromia are at their lowest levels compared to the past 10 years. Parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's Region (SNNPR) are extremely food insecure after minimal rains led to a failed sweet potato harvest in February and a near failure of the current belg harvest. Belg producing parts of Tigray and Amhara regions, as well as parts of Oromia region, are also facing high to extreme food insecurity. Food security is generally normal in the western, crop-dependent parts of the country, where production from the main meher 2007 season (October to January) was above the five-year average (2003 to 2007). e-year average (2003 to 2007).

In the most likely scenario from October to December, food security is expected to improve in the eastern parts of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia region, as well as most of SNNPR, following the meher harvest, improving food availability and offering modest respite from high cereal prices. Average deyr rains (October to December) will be insufficient to improve food security for pastoralists in the south and southeast. Ongoing conflict-related market access restrictions will continue to affect food security in five zones in Somali Region.

In the worst-case scenario, below-average kiremt (June to September) and deyr rains will lead to significant crop reductions throughout most crop producing parts of the country and even more severe shortages of pasture and water in the south and southeast. Livestock terms of trade will be extremely poor, given their poor physical condition and the continued increase in staple food prices. A poor performance of the meher harvest will push food prices even higher, preventing food access in both urban and rural areas, and thus increasing already high levels of acute malnutrition. Ongoing conflict-related market access restrictions will continue to affect food security in five zones in Somali Region. Humanitarian responses will be insufficient to meet the increases in demand.

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