Poor rains in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural lowlands, in combination with an early end to the short rains season, and after a succession of three poor seasons, have resulted in widespread crop failure, and precipitated a likely humanitarian and livelihood crisis.

- Some northeastern and southeastern pastoral districts have benefited from improved livestock conditions, but the early cessation of the short rains could cause a rapid deterioration in pasture and water availability, resulting in a quick decline in food security. Pastoral areas in the north and south received poor short rains and require immediate assistance.

- The GoK has indicated that 10 million persons are highly food insecure. The number includes a provisional estimate of 3.2 million drought-affected marginal farmers, agropastoralists, and pastoralists; about 150,000 IDPs; 850,000 school children; 3.5 million urban dwellers, and about 2.2 million persons affected by HIV and AIDS, including orphans. Rapid assessments planned for February and will clarify the depth and extent of food insecurity.

- The national supply situation suggests that there will be a 190,000 MT deficit at the end of the marketing year. While the GoK has allowed for the importation of 450,000 MT of cereals for both the SGR and commercial purposes, it is unclear whether the private sector will be able to competitively source their allocation of 270,000 MT from the international market.

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