The UK government and leading businesses must assert their credibility as global leaders in tackling climate change by making the right decisions in the coming months to steer the UK towards a low-carbon future.

In a new report today, Oxfam says the government, public and private sector must act together to ensure the UK turns away from high-polluting policies and projects that would jeopardise the UK’s carbon emissions targets and threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world.

The report, Forecast for Tomorrow, exposes a gathering storm of competing interests, disjointed government policies and projects by powerful corporates such as E.ON and Shell that would contribute to the UK pushing global emissions to dangerous levels for the world and catastrophic levels for the poor.

It also shows world-beating examples from government agencies and companies like DEFRA, BT, National Grid and Marks & Spencer that are demonstrating today how a low-carbon future is possible.

Oxfam chief executive Barbara Stocking said: “Taking decisions now that will increase carbon emissions makes no sense at such a critical time. We must switch to low-carbon and greater energy efficiency if we are to begin to stem the devastating impacts of climate change already being felt by millions of poor people around the world, despite them being the least responsible.

“The UK has been playing a pivotal role in trying to get a global climate deal in place but we have to get our own house in order and companies like E.ON and Shell must reconsider their potentially destructive plans. Strong decisions in boardrooms and Whitehall must be made over the next few months to ensure that we meet the challenges of climate change and begin to give the people we work with the chance for a better flood and famine free future.”

Oxfam says that if E.ON is allowed to build the UK’s first coal plant in 34 years, annual CO2 emissions from the Kingsnorth plant will be 7m tonnes - more than the combined output of 30 developing countries. A decision in the next three months to build Kingsnorth will open the way for a new coal era and jeopardise future UK emissions targets.

Meanwhile, Shell plans to treble its investment by 2015 in unconventional oil sources such as those from Canada’s oil sands, which are three times more polluting to produce. Recent research claims that if all unconventional oil is recovered and burnt, this alone would risk the world going over 2C. Going ahead with these plans would send a strong message to other countries that new dirty fossil fuels are acceptable, which would derail attempts to combat global warming at an international level - the consequences of which would be felt most by the poorest people on the planet.

Some businesses like EON and CBI, which is also featured in the report, claim that emissions will be controlled through a carbon market, allowing them to trade their pollution away. However, the current system has its flaws and markets alone are sometimes unreliable, as we are seeing in today’s global financial crisis. The EU must take action itself to reduce emissions by 30 per cent by 2020, before relying on buying in credits from overseas.

Oxfam says it is crucial that E.ON and Shell change direction and that the UK government delivers strong decisions, rejecting attempts to water down the UK Climate Change Bill and the EU’s Renewable Energy target. Decisions the government should make include:

• Strengthening targets in the UK Climate Change Bill for at least 80% cuts of all greenhouse gas emissions;
• Sealing a 20% renewable energy target for 2020 in the EU’s renewable energy bill;
• Rejecting plans for a new coal-fired plant at Kingsnorth and dropping biofuel targets in transport fuel following their links to food shortages research that they are not the climate change panacea originally thought.

“Stocking said: “Some businesses, government departments and communities around the UK are showing that a cleaner, fairer future is possible. The UK is at a climate crossroad. It can either take the easy, short-sighted road by reaffirming its commitment to traditional fossil fuels, or it can head towards a low-carbon future. We look to companies like E.On and Shell who have the skills, knowledge and power- but must now show the will - to challenge climate change head-on and provide more sustainable solutions. And we call on the UK government to show its resolve by making the tough and necessary decisions the world is waiting for.”

Last year, Oxfam responded to escalating numbers of climatic crises, including the worst floods in Africa in three decades and massive floods in South Asia and Mexico. The total number of natural disasters has quadrupled in the last two decades - most of them floods, cyclones and storms - with the number of people affected having increased from 174 million to an average of over 250 million a year. Only by rich countries making the right decisions at home and leading by example can we hope to secure an equitable global deal to reduce emissions and secure a future for generations to come.

/Ends

To see the report, visit: http://www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/policy/climate_change/forecast_tomorrow.html

To find out more about Oxfam’s climate change campaign and what you could do visit: www.oxfam.org.uk/climatechange

For more information, images, interviews or to see the report, please call Lucy Brinicombe, 01865 472192 / 07786 110054 / lbrinicombe@oxfam.org.uk or Jon Slater, 01865 472249 / jslater@oxfam.org.uk

Notes to Editors:

• Oxfam is committed to reducing its own carbon footprint by 27 per cent over the next three years from 16,888 tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2006/7 to 12,294 tonnes. These will be genuine reductions made without the use of carbon off-setting schemes. Reductions are being achieved through a series of measures including: buying electricity from renewable sources; reduced air travel and paper consumption, and use of recycled paper.

Here is a full list of the key players ear-marked in the report:

Private Sector

• E.ON wants to build the first new coal plant in the UK since 1974, which would open the way for at least five others. If approved, this new coal plant would jeopardise the UK’s 2020 emissions targets as well as critically undermine the UK’s international legitimacy and influence.
• Shell is set to triple its investments in ‘unconventional’ oil, which is around 300 per cent more polluting than conventional oil to produce.
• Influential business lobby, the Confederation of British Industry, is seeking to water down key climate policies, such as the Renewables Strategy and the UK Climate Change Bill, while backing such high carbon infrastructure as new unabated coal and airport expansion.

• BT in the UK has one of the most ambitious targets for reducing emissions seen among any private sector company or government in the world: 80 per cent emissions cuts by 2016 (which it is well on the way to meeting, having reduced its emissions by 58 per cent already). This compares to the latest ambitions of the G8, which aims for 50 per cent reductions by 2050 - falling far short of the drastic action needed.
• National Grid has not only set its own ambitious emissions reduction target of 80 per cent by 2050 but has set out a vision for how it would play its part in helping the UK as a whole achieve that target.
• Marks and Spencer is leading the way among UK retailers to look not just at its direct emissions but also to address the emissions generated through its supply chain and consumer use of its products - vital if we are to address the UK’s wider carbon footprint.

Public Sector

• The government department responsible for energy policy, BERR, is beset by incoherence, threatening to approve a new generation of coal-fired power plants that will undermine its own progress in promoting renewable energy.

• The Department for Transport is offering false solutions to rising transport emissions by pushing biofuels targets, despite growing scientific consensus that biofuels are not the solution to climate change, and failing to have a coherent plan to curb transport emissions in the crucial near term.
• The Export Credit Guarantee Department provides billions of pounds of public support to high-carbon projects around the world with no plans to set emissions reduction targets.

• DEFRA’s groundbreaking UK Climate Bill will be the world’s first long-term, legally binding framework to tackle climate change
• The Scottish Government’s climate plans in the Scottish Bill could result in the most demanding statutory emissions reduction targets in the world: 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050.
• The Greater London Authority is recognised internationally as the city that has gone furthest to address climate change, and its plans to reduce emissions by 60 per cent by 2025 exceed by far those of the UK government.

Public

• The UK public are understandably confused about the causes of climate change, with 60 per cent still doubting whether humans contribute to global warming. Given this misunderstanding it’s not surprising only 13 per cent think they need make significant changes to their lifestyles. This confusion provides an easy excuse for inertia, with a majority expecting government or business to act first. Those who do take action are being misled into investing their efforts into the less effective ways of tackling climate change, such as re-using plastic bags - instead of focusing on the real climate gains to be made in energy and transport.
• Among the UK public, a clear climate for change has emerged. Hundreds of ‘low carbon communities’ around the country are taking action into their own hands, building a grassroots movement for change at the local level. Increasing numbers of people are taking action in their individual lives to reduce their personal carbon footprints. Climate change is now the focus of a mass movement of NGOs, campaign and protest groups - the largest since the anti-poverty and debt protests.

More from the Oxfam Press Office at http://www.oxfam.org.uk/news