Uncertainties associated with physical climate modeling and socio-economic projections in the next 50 to 100 years prevent policy makers in developing countries from committing scarce resources to manage unknown risks at a distant future. It is possible, however, to convince them to undertake planned climate change adaptation strategies by addressing risks associated with present day societal vulnerability to observed climate variability and extremes. Noting that climate risks from a changed climate would mimic current climate variability patterns with higher amplitude variations (increased frequency and intensity), the risk pattern could be anticipated and human experiences dealing with these risks could be drawn to build resilience.

This would include: 1. Analysis of coping mechanisms to recent extreme climate event analog, if these are able to withstand higher amplitude climate variability 2. Utilizing the lead time provided by seasonal climate forecasts to undertake proactive coping strategies 3. Utilizing modeling results from climate change scenarios on warming and sea level rise, which give some degree of certainty, in evolving and operationalizing adaptation strategies

For most of the 1990s, the climate change debate centered on the stabilization of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere. Thus, mitigation has been advocated as a major policy intervention. In the late 1990s, however, the climate change debate recognized the inevitable consequences of human induced impacts on climate, regardless of achieving the target of stabilizing GHG emission. Adaptation was recognized as a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts.

Various strategies and approaches have evolved to operationalize climate change adaptation strategies. However, the mainstreaming of climate change concerns into national policy framework and locally actionable programs to reduce community vulnerability to climate change poses serious challenges.

Challenges in mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development planning Uncertainties associated with physical climate modeling and socio-economic projections in the next 50 to 100 year time horizon pose serious constraints in mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development planning. There is much uncertainty on how climate will respond to the emission scenario, as current climate models have not yet even captured the complexity of the climate system (for example, the effects of current climate system components and their interactions are not yet all known).

Uncertainties in population and economic change and technological development scenarios arise, not because of the various methods of estimation, but of the contested and political nature of the changes implied. Hence, policy makers in developing countries experience practical difficulties in committing scarce resources for managing unknown risks at a distant future. Addressing present day development concerns takes priority.

Opportunities in operationalizing adaptation concepts The shift in disaster management paradigm from reactive to proactive has greatly contributed to the reduction of deaths associated with forewarned natural hazards. The economic impact, however, in terms of damages and loss of livelihood opportunities still remains a major concern. Since the 1990s, efforts have been made to incorporate disaster mitigation into development planning to anticipate and reduce the impacts of climate-related hazards. With policymakers' appreciation of the desirability of addressing risks associated with known and observed climate variability, it is therefore possible to convince them to undertake planned climate change adaptation strategies by addressing risks associated with societal vulnerability to observed climate variability and extremes.

Addressing risks associated with present day climate variability would enhance capacity of vulnerable communities to withstand future climate change impacts. These, coupled with the remarkable progress in the ability to monitor and predict weather/ climate events on the scale of seasons and beyond in the last decade, provide a unique opportunity for developing countries to reduce vulnerabilities to current climate variability and future climate change impacts.

Translating adaptation concepts into locally actionable practices Climate change impacts would likely manifest from (i) the alteration of the mean state of climate; (ii) increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events; (iii) combination of (i) and (ii) and; (iv) climate surprises, i.e. the emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns. Climate risks pertaining to (i) to (iii) would likely mimic current climate variability patterns with higher amplitude variations.

The pattern of risks could be anticipated and human experiences dealing with these risks could be drawn to build resilience. With reference to (iv), while past climate pattern may not provide any clue, human experiences dealing with extreme climate events of rare severity may provide guidance for dealing with uncertainties associated with risks.

In dealing with both anticipated and unanticipated type of climate patterns, the relevance of experiences of human systems to deal with current climate variability and extremes could provide guidance to move forward to design climate change adaptation strategies. The issues to be addressed are (i) the limitation of existing human systems to address climate variability-associated risks; (ii) the kind of policy changes, institutional mechanisms, strategies and practices required to address gaps to make communities resilient to current climate variability; (iii) limitation of strengthened coping mechanisms to withstand high amplitude variability due to climate change; and (iv) priority actions/ measures that could be adopted to overcome identified limitations to manage risks associated with high amplitude climate change impacts.

Utilizing recent extreme climate event analogs to enhance adaptive capacity Past climate fluctuations provide natural experiments to examine reactive (ex-post) responses of human systems to climate extremes. These are situations that permit direct observation of community and institutional behaviors in response to a dynamic climate. Such natural experiments potentially reveal important details about the sensitivities of human activities to climate variability. They can be used to identify and quantify bio-physical responses to climate fluctuations and the resilience of community coping mechanisms. A suitable, preferably most recent, extreme climate event analog, and pro-active (exante) societal and institutional responses to these events, can be identified. These coping mechanisms can then be evaluated if they are able to withstand higher amplitude climate variability. Ways and means to strengthen these coping mechanisms can then be explored to address gaps. This should lead to location-specific guidance and consolidated policy recommendations on how to further strengthen the role of community coping mechanisms through community-based organizations and local government authorities, including capacity building required to fulfill such role. The process would promote horizontal interaction of local governments with community-based organizations to encourage their active collaboration in the design and implementation of adaptation measures, as well as vertical interaction between different sectors for strengthening local community-based institutions to perform a role to support communities.ion measures, as well as vertical interaction between different sectors for strengthening local community-based institutions to perform a role to support communities.