Somalia's fate will likely be decided in the coming weeks, said the Bishop of Djibouti Giorgio Bertin, as the country now totters between a weak, propped-up transitional government and chaos since the Union of Islamic Courts was pushed from power last week. 

"If Ethiopia withdraws its troops and there is no support mechanism put in place, the tranisitional government can't stand on its own. It will collapse," Bishop Bertin said. 

"If the international community does not intervene, there is a real risk that Somalia could go back to the worst violence and clan warfare of 1991," he continued. "We need an African or United Nations force, supported by the Europeans and the North Americans, in place to fill the void once the Ethiopians leave," Bishop Bertin said. 

Bishop Bertin is also the Vatican's Apostolic Administrator of Mogadishu and the President of Caritas Somalia and Caritas Djibouti. 

The Union of Islamic Courts took control of the Somali capital Mogadishu and much of the country's south last June. The harsh Islamic rule it established brought some semblance of security to Somalia, which has been in a state of anarchy for 16 years, but at the same time the UIC stands accused of human rights abuses and links to al-Qaeda and other militant Islamist groups. 

As the Courts consolidated and spread their hold on large swaths of Somalia, looming ever-closer to Baidoa, the seat of the Transitional Federal Institutions (the interim government), Ethiopia sent in its forces to support the government and avoid a destabilisation of the whole region, including within its own territories. From just before Christmas until the first week of January, the Ethiopian forces routed the Islamic Courts' militias and is still hunting down fighters for the UIC who took flight.

 

No Way Out

In its own interest, and at the request of the Somali interim government, Kenya has sealed off its border with Somalia to prevent Islamic militants from escaping the country. 

"We also have to understand this severe measure," said Bishop Bertin. "Kenya is worried about the huge influx of Somalis, especially the threat of Islamists entering and destabilising its territory." 

Kenya lacks the capacity to effectively screen people wanting to cross the border, said Bishop Bertin, so until Kenya can guarantee that a system is in place that distinguishes between refugees and possible militants, this is the solution. 

"This is a measure that I hope is temporary. I hope it will be removed. But we need to have a presence there immediately to screen for possible criminals," Bishop Bertin said. 

The way forward

The most difficult task will be piecing back together Somalia's fragmented society, which has almost been completely destroyed, said Bishop Bertin. 

"The presence of an international peacekeeping force could allow discussions to happen that bring into play Somalia's traditional clan system. It has been weakened by the warlords, who are self-appointed men acting in their own interests, but it can be restored," Bishop Bertin said. 

"The international community too must avoid acting for hidden interests. We all need to act in interest of a true Somali nation, to ensure its success." 

"In just this year alone, we've gone from drought, to flooding, to war. All the classical evils are there," said Bishop Bertin.

contact:

Nancy McNally, media officer

tel: +39 06 698 797 52

e-mail: mcnally@caritas.va

 

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