ANALYSIS-Mugabe gets union pay deal but more trouble ahead
Source: Reuters
By MacDonald Dzirutwe HARARE, Feb 23 (Reuters) - President Robert Mugabe's government bought some relief with a state workers' pay deal but Zimbabwe's economic woes could spur more job boycotts and unrest, analysts said on Friday. A deepening economic crisis has stoked political tension in Zimbabwe, where workers are wrestling with the world's highest inflation rate at 1,600 percent. Political analysts say rising worker anger, more than opposition threats of protests, was the most immediate threat to Mugabe's 27-year rule. The largest teachers' union and government on Thursday agreed a new wage package that would apply to all civil servants and teachers called off their strike, which authorities had feared would gain momentum and spill onto the streets. Teachers' union leaders also head the top federation that represents the rest of the government workers. Political analysts said by bowing to the demands of the largest workers' grouping, the government had bought itself time and prevented, for now, confrontation with government employees. "This is a huge political relief for Mugabe, he has managed to remove the sting from the bees for now," Eldred Masunungure, a leading political commentator said. But Mugabe, who has in the past outwitted opponents, faced mounting pressure from a sliding economy seen in acute shortages of foreign currency, food and fuel and rising unemployment and poverty. The International Monetary Fund sees inflation hitting 4,000 percent by the end of the year. That and opposition calls for a defiance campaign against the economic crisis and Mugabe's plans to hang on to power under a plan to merge presidential and parliamentary elections in 2010, would ratchet up pressure on Mugabe. "BIGGER STING" Mugabe's government on Wednesday imposed a three-month ban on political rallies and protests in Harare's volatile townships which analysts saw as a pre-emptive move against the opposition, whose supporters clashed with riot squads last weekend. The veteran leader, who turned 83 this week, also faced growing dissent within his ruling ZANU-PF party over the election plan and has accused some colleagues of seeking his early exit while vowing not to bow to pressure. "For now Mugabe will breathe a huge sigh of relief but the wider economic crisis will haunt him. By mid-year the skirmishes (between state employees and the government) will resume with a much bigger vengeance," said Masunungure. "The bees will be back with a bigger sting. There is more trouble ahead," he added. Economic commentators questioned the source of the money used by the government to award its workers a huge pay rise, which was not budgeted in 2007. The teachers had sought a Z$450,000 monthly salary -- $1,800 at the official exchange rate but just $90 on the black market -- double what the government had initially offered and about five times their current salaries. Officials have not released details of the final deal, but some observers believe the government agreed to a hike considerably more generous than the union's original request. "This is a very costly move by the government because the implications for the national budget are horrendous," private economic commentator John Robertson said. "The government will not be able to manage the consequences of its political decisions which really make nonsense of the anti-inflation strategies it is pursuing," he said.
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