By Lamine Chikhi

ALGIERS, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Suicide bombings in Algeria are arousing concern about the long-term stability of north Africa, an area where economic and political stagnation offers al Qaeda scope to foment unrest on Europe's southern flank.

Few analysts detect any short-term threat to the rulers who wield tight control in a region where Europe obtains 20 percent of its gas imports and sends millions on holiday each year.

Nor are broad-based rebellions such as the one that shook OPEC member Algeria in the 1990s in prospect.

However, popular alienation from formal politics and low levels of job creation may provide Algeria's numerically diminished but increasingly bold Islamist rebels with opportunities for expansion in neighbouring Tunisia, Morocco and Libya, experts say.

The risk is that deepening social malaise could help armed groups recruit more young men to commit regular suicide attacks of the kind that have killed scores of people in Algeria this year. Such a trend would hit confidence in a region trying to lure investors, boost regional trade and give people hope.

For jobless Algerian graduate Abdeslam Selmane, as for tens of thousands of young Maghrebis, the solution may end up being illegal migration on a boat to Europe rather than terrorism.

"I need a job, a house ... basic stuff to have a decent life," the 23-year-old said. "Leaving the country -- through any means -- is my solution."

RULERS AND RULED

The regional gap between rulers and ruled has long been seen as a danger. In a 2005 paper, U.S. Maghreb expert John Pierre Entelis wrote: "Terrorism is one outcome of the failure to fundamentally reform and restructure Maghrebi political orders."

This year has seen Algeria's first suicide bombings and record low turnouts of 35 and 37 percent in Algerian and Moroccan parliamentary elections, aggravating old worries about the consequences of tight curbs on political life.

Tunisia and Libya have stepped up surveillance of Islamists.

"People in the region believe that voting is useless. Why should I vote, they say, if it won't have any impact on our daily life," Algerian political analyst Mahmoud Belhimer said.

"What's at stake here is regional stability. And you can't guarantee long-term stability without opening up to democracy."

Concern about the region helped to inspire a French proposal for a so-called Mediterranean Union of states that would coordinate on migration, terrorism and economic development.

There are big differences between north African countries -- Libya's three-decade-old no-party system of popular rule is unique, Morocco's ruling royal dynasty is four centuries old and army-backed leaders have been the norm in Algeria for 45 years.

Algeria and Libya have oil and gas but are otherwise economically weak. Morocco and Tunisia lack energy riches but have diversified private sectors admired by foreign investors.

The similarities are also striking: high unemployment, low economic productivity, curbs on political participation, poor education, red tape and meagre levels of regional trade.

"The most serious threat to the Maghreb region would come not from terrorism but from social issues: basic needs and the purchasing power for ordinary citizens," said Bilal Talidi, a political analyst and university teacher from Morocco.

Tunisian dissident Rachid Kachena said: "Preventing political parties from taking care of the youth could make it even easier for terrorist organisations to hire young people."

A few years ago things looked different. Modernising social reforms in Morocco and a lifting of Western sanctions on Libya suggested the region was heading for a new era of stability.

Above all, Algeria's turmoil, which has cost up to 200,000 lives since 1992, appeared to be firmly winding down.

Ruthless army pressure helped quell an Islamist insurgency that began in 1992 when the then army-backed rulers scrapped legislative elections that a radical Islamic party was poised to win.

The government won the disarmament of tens of thousands of rebels with repeated amnesties. However, the rebels' embrace of suicide bombing and their use of the al Qaeda's name has tested nerves anew.

BUYING OFF DISSENT

"The government buys off dissent through the distribution of revenue from oil and gas. This is a key factor that enables the system to work," said Wolfram Lacher of risk consultancy Control Risks Group.

In Morocco, where the monarchy has wide support, pro-democracy activists say royal-appointed technocrats wield the true levers of power. Morocco, too, has been hit by suicide bombings.

Tunisia has north Africa's best educated population and largest middle class. However, the government is accused by rights groups of running a de facto police state. It denies this.

Muammar Gaddafi, the region's best known ruler who has led Libya since grabbing power in a 1969 coup, is slowly unshackling its statist economy but says political reform will not happen.

Maghreb governments rule out a role for "those who manipulate religion for political ends" -- a widely used phrase that refers to many Islamist groups. Critics say this simply pushes Islamists to consider violence as a way of being heard.

"It is useless to combat terrorists if you don't tackle the causes that produce them," wrote Algerian analyst Abed Charef.

"Without a political, economic and social blossoming, you will have factors of resurgent violence."

(Additional reporting by Lamine Ghanmi in Rabat and Tarek Amara in Tunis)

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