Food insecurity is increasing as the hunger season begins for subsistence producers and poor landless households without access to labor or other sources of income (such as remittances), especially in areas where the primera rains have not yet started. Many of these households also do not have land or inputs to begin planting the primera crops, and need immediate assistance and seeds in May to enable the primera production.

In other areas, the onset of the rains allows producers to prepare their land for the primera sowing, which creates some agriculture employment opportunities during this period. This employment provides families with at least enough income to purchase food. Other families rely on increased migration as a coping strategy to generate some income to purchase food and seeds for the next harvest. Food security is normal for this period for families who have jobs or receive remittances.

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Agricultural production and food security implications

The hunger season has started in April, as some households have run out of staple cereal reserves from the December harvest and the demand for unskilled labor is low due to the normal dry climatic conditions. However, rainfall has started early in some parts of the Matagalpa, Boaco, Chontales and Rio San Juan departments, and it is likely that the rains will be established by the end of May across Nicaragua.

The early rainfall is facilitating the preparation of land in parts of these departments, which brings an increased demand for labor for these activities and is enabling some day-laborer families to generate income to purchase food and begin negotiations with landlords to rent land for the primera sowing that typically starts in May. Other family members with better financial means have been able to migrate, and the family members working abroad have sent remittances to purchase food, seeds and inputs for the primera sowing. As a result of these conditions, these families are not facing food insecurity problems.

Figure 1. Number of poor landless households that depend on day labor for income, by agricultural region   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: CENAGRO VAM, PMA 2005

Approximately 23,000 landless families that rely on day labor for income are the most vulnerable during the hunger season. Forty percent of these families are located in the large-scale coffee estate region, 31 percent in the Vieja Frontera Agrícola and 29 percent in the dry region (Figure 1). This group of producers has to rent land, with which they produce 16 percent of beans and 10 percent of maize in these three zones. These households also receive very few remittances (Figure 2), and do not have food reserves due to the normal shortages at this time of the year.

Agricultural wages are the most important source of income for these households. As they do not own their own land for planting, the head and several other members of the family generally seek employment in neighboring farms. Due to the lack of food reserves, they spend almost 100 percent of their wages on purchasing food, which places them in a critical food security situation when agricultural activities are not available, such as in the zones where rains have not yet started.

As a result, these landless households will require food aid from May to August and seeds in May for the primera harvest. When the rains begin in the rest of Nicaragua (likely in third dekad of May, according to INETER forecasts), the agricultural activities will provide jobs that will enable them to supply food for themselves, as well as purchase the necessary production means (such as land rental, seeds and inputs) to continue the primera sowing. Another strategy to enable the primera harvest is to have their employers pre-finance the purchase of inputs, as poor rural households have almost no access to financing.

Figure 2.  Income sources in landless households that depend on day labor for income FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Weather outlook*

The onset of the rainy season is forecast for the last dekad of May in the Pacific and Atlantic regions, and for the beginning of June in the northern and northwest areas of the central region. However, rains have begun in some locations in April, and moderate isolated rains are forecast for the first dekad of May.

The XXI Central America Climate Forum forecast that rainfall from May to July will likely be normal to below-normal in most of the country (Figure 3). In the western parts of Chinandega, Managua and Carazo in the Pacific region and in the area between Prinzapolka and San Juan de Nicaragua in the Atlantic region, normal to above normal rains are likely. In May and June, it is likely that rains will be irregular and deficient. However, in July, accumulated rainfall is expected to be normal, and the canícula dry spell in July/August is likely to be relatively weak.

An irregular or late start of the rainy season could cause crop losses and low production yields, thereby extending the hunger season beyond August when the primera crop is normally harvested. Likewise, an irregular start of the rainy season will reduce the demand for agricultural labor in May and June, which will increase food insecurity due to the lack of sources of income.

Figure 3. Weather forecast, May to July, 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE ‘A’ indicates likelihood of above-normal rainfall; ‘N’ indicates likelihood of normal rainfall; ‘B’ indicates likelihood of below-normal rainfall. Source: XXI Central America Climate Forum, 2007

* This section is prepared by INETER, the Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (Nicaraguan Institute for Land Studies).