FEWS NET Monthly Report for Angola covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

ANGOLA Food Security Update November 200

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

 

Summary and implications

Food security remains stable in most of the country including areas affected by a dry spell in early 2006 (see figure 1), where poor households have only limited food reserves following a poor harvest.  Most households have exhausted their food reserves and are selling livestock, labor and forest products to generate income to buy food in local markets.  Food security is expected to deteriorate in localized areas of central Angola (see figure 1) especially for returning refugees that have not been able to plant a crop this season.  In these areas, the food security situation is expected to worsen in January when staple cereal prices normally increase following the end of harvest in nacas (lowlands) and irrigated fields.  The food security situation is also precarious in Namibe among the pastoral Mucubais people and the Mukuisse people due to poor livestock conditions and a resulting lack of labor opportunities.

Figure 1: Areas affected by dry spell and with increased vulnerability

While a poor 2006/07 agricultural season could further aggravate the food security situation in these areas, the current outlook is positive.  Good precipitation has been received over most of the country and normal to above-normal rains are forecast.  In addition, there has been an increase in the amount of land under cultivation.  However, poor seed availability and access continue to limit the production potential.  Moreover, there is an elevated risk of dryer conditions in southeastern Angola up to February 2007 due to the prevailing moderate El Ni?o.  Dryer conditions during this time would negatively impact crop production and thus food security.

Significant events timeline

Food security and nutrition

Although household cereal reserves are at their lowest at this time of year, harvests from nacas and irrigated fields have stabilized the food security situation in central and southern Angola while the cassava crop is guaranteeing food availability in the north.  The sweet potato harvest in Caluquembe, Nacoma and Cacule in Huila province is also helping some households to maintain their food security.

However, in areas affected by the dry spell last season including Ukuma and Tchindjendje, in Huambo, as well as Ganda and Cubal, in Benguela, food security is expected to deteriorate in the coming months as poor households run out of their own food stocks and exhaust their other coping strategies.

In Namibe, reports indicate that shortages in cereal and milk production due to a lack of water are responsible for the food insecurity observed among the pastoral Mucubais population. The Mukuisse populations in Namibe, who earn their living by providing labor to better-off livestock owning households, have particularly become vulnerable to food insecurity as poor livestock conditions have reduced the demand for labor.

The late return of about 278 Angolan refugees from Namibia and Zambia into central Angola has meant that these families were unable to establish a crop this year, prolonging how long they will be food insecure.  While the free return of internally displaced people is done in consideration to the agricultural season, the lack of assistance and assets puts returning IDPs at risk of food insecurity if their harvests are poor this year.

Income from the sale of agricultural products and honey to purchase food has contributed to maintaining food security in central and southern districts.  The sale of milk, meat and livestock has also provided some income used to buy food in Cunene and Namibe, especially for the the Mucabais people in Namibe province.  However, the ban on the sale of meat, fish and vegetables in local markets to prevent the spread of cholera has affected negatively the purchasing power of households in Cunene.

The MINARS (Ministry of Assistance and Social Reinsertion), the World Food Programme (WFP) and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have supported some food insecure households with food aid programs.  However, reduced food aid in schools, hospitals and nutritional centers due to the closure of WFP operations expected next January will add an additional strain on food insecure communities if other institutions do not step in.

In spite of the relatively stable food security situation, a mild hunger period is expected between December and February with localized areas facing more difficult conditions.  Depending on the degree of vulnerability, affected households will run out of their own production, and will turn to the markets to purchase most of their foods products during this time.

This year maize prices are not that much different from those of the last year or from the five year average.  Although, harvests failed in some regions these were off-set with surpluses from other regions. However, in the most vulnerable districts to food insecurity in the central provinces increased maize grain prices have been registered (from AKZ35 to AKZ50) between September and November.  This has constrained household food access in these areas where increased prices are attributed to increased demand for maize seed and a decrease in maize supply.  The supply of maize is being affected by decreased household maize reserves and poor road and rail access which have constricted the flow of goods from productive areas.

Access to food in local markets is also being affected by lack of funds.  Food insecure households are using various coping strategies to generate income, including the provision of labor and sale of forest products.  The provision of labor (Tchiongo) to better-off households at a daily rate of US$1.85 has become an important source of income in central Angola.  This source of income is likely to continue to be important during the December to January period as smallholders enter the labor intensive period of weeding.  However, wage rates are likely to decrease with the increase in the offer of labor as more households turn to the market after exhausting their own reserves.  In addition, sale of labor during the productive period perpetuate the cycle of food insecurity because vulnerable people invest less of their available household labor in their own fields.

An increasing number of food insecure households are also engaging in the sale of forest products such as firewood, charcoal, grasses and construction materials to generate income for food purchase.  However, the available natural resources are limited and demand will decrease in the coming months as the season become wetter.  In the long term, current practices are unsustainable and environmentally damaging.

Malnutrition has worsened in recent months but is still within the normal range for this time of year and increases in admissions rates to nutrition centers has remained stable.  A global acute malnutrition of about eight percent in Tchindjenji was surveyed in October 2006.

The large proportion of the reported cases of malnutrition are being attributed to poor sanitation, disease, poor health services coverage, poor weaning practices and lack of nutritional education rather than to the poor food intake.  However, an unusually high prevalence of cholera during this period is a concern.

Season forecast and performance

Rains have fallen regularly since their early start in September over most of Angola and currently exceeded last year's precipitation averages.

The good rains have raised expectation of a good season in terms of food security due to early planting, rapid germination and good crop development (figure 2).  However, excess rains are causing leaching of nutrients and hail in Humpata has damaged fruits and nacas crops.  Intensive rains have also destroyed infrastructure such as roads in the northeast.

Figure 2:  Water Requirements Satisfaction Index, maize growing conditions (30 November 2006)

While the overall progress of the season is good, there are reports of poor rains in southern part of Namibe and Cunene provinces.

The forecast for November to January suggests good rains will continue (see figure 3).  If this forecast holds, a good crop can be expected which will improve food security conditions.  However, the southwestern part of Namibe and southeastern part of Kuando Kubango have a greater chance of receiving below normal to normal rainfall.  While dry conditions are less likely to affect crop growth in southwestern Namibe where irrigation and cropping near river banks mitigates rainfall deficits, the food security situation in southeastern Kuando Kubango is more vulnerable to rainfall deficits.

Figure 3: Rainfall forecast for period between November and January.

Source: SADC Drought Monitoring Center

The current good production outlook and subsequent projection of improved food security situation due to good rains during the first half of the season can be quickly reversed if SARCOF10 (SADC Regional Climate Outlook Forecast) forecast of below-normal to normal rainfall during the second half of the season occurs.  Recent forecast updates reinforce this possibility, indicating that the prevailing moderate El Ni?o may lead to drier than normal conditions in early 2007 in south-eastern Angola.  Furthermore, above normal rain pattern in Southern Africa during the month of October are usually associated with the dryness conditions in the second half of the season.  Contingency planning for this eventuality should therefore be prioritized by the Government and partners.

Production outlook

Increased production is forecast in most provinces primarily due to an increase in cultivated land.  Early and favorable planting conditions have reinforced the outlook for those households that had adequate seeds by the second dekad of October.  However, planting has continued through November and is expected to continue through December as households have accessed more seeds.  Smallholders in some areas of southern Namibe and Cunene have not yet planted their fields as the rains have not started in these areas. However, crops can be adversely affected by an extended ?small dry spell? (pequeno cacimbo) during January and February 2007.

On the other hand, there is no concern over food insecurity in cassava cropping regions of northern Angola as there is good availability and access to cassava planting materials and because of the wide interval of months that cassava can be successfully planted.

Unlike Cunene and Namibe where seeds were delivered in anticipation to the provincial IDAs (Institutos de Desenvolvimento Agr?cola), other provinces had not received in full the seeds planned for distribution to smallholders.  Thus, in spite of good planting conditions and land preparation, poor production may be expected due to the scarcity of seeds in places such as Huila provinces.  Late procurement of seed by the government and NGOs for distribution may not solve this problem because planting this late is likely to result in reduced production.  Households with poor seed stocks due to poor harvest during the 2005/06 seasons are likely to become the most food insecure over the next year.  FEWS NET assessments confirm that about 40 and 58 percent of farmers in Tchindjenje and Ukuma, respectively, lacked seeds to plant the land they had prepared during the last season.

Access to quality seeds on timely basis is a key to the good production and to improving food security.  Locally produced seeds are known to perform better than the imported hybrid seeds for smallholders cropping conditions.  However, a limited seed production capacity and a poor marketing system are limiting access to quality seed.  Productive districts such as Caluquembe in Huila and commercial farmers are the main source of seeds that have been distributed during this season in central Angola.

Smallholders are relying on available household labor for cultivation and planting activities.  IDA?s distribution of implements has improved the prospects for good production given that it has removed some of the constraints to the implementation of agricultural operations using manual labor.

Animal traction is used only in some southern provinces where there are a significant number of cattle.  Early rains in Huila have increased the chance for greater utilization of traction animals as a way of increasing the area of land under cultivation.  However, low availability of plowing equipments continues to limit the use of traction animals.

Effort by Mecanagro EP/IDA and provincial governments to ensure agricultural mechanization services has helped some associated smallholders to increase the cultivated fields.  But this effort will only aid a limited number of households.

Poor availability and access to fertilizer and other inputs by smallholders will also constrain production.  However, IDA distributions of fertilizer in central and coastal provinces will help.  However, supply of deteriorated fertilizers due to poor conservation condition in the port may limit the provision of fertilizers to smallholders in some districts of Huila provinces.

Recent efforts by the government and NGOs to develop small-scale irrigation schemes will also positively contribute to an improved food security situation.  This irrigation support is particularly important when promoted during the dry season in favor of smallholders.

Livestock

An early onset of rains in Huila during October and through the November has provided water in some chimpacas (ponds), improving water availability for livestock.  However, Namibe and Cunene continue to register shortages of water and pasture.  These problems have forced farmers to take their livestock into transhumance zones.  Continued dry conditions in these provinces could compromise the food security situation of livestock farming communities.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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