Figure 1. Estimated current food security status (Emergency + PSNP) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Data source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB). Graphics by FEWS NET, February 2007.

Due largely to favorable weather conditions, the 2006/07 meher season’s harvest is estimated by FAO/WFP and MoARD to have been 50 percent higher than the recent five-year average. This season follows three consecutive good major seasons. The favorable weather during the meher and deyr seasons also improved the availability of forage and water in the dominantly pastoral areas of Afar and Somali regions. Most parts of Afar and Somali regions are also expected to maintain normal to good forage conditions for the coming 60 days, according to Livestock Information Network and Knowledge System (LINKS). These improvements have helped to reduce the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance in 2007.

In spite of a large apparent increase in food availability and improvement in overall food security, escalating cereal prices, intermittent conflicts, floods, poor and failed rains earlier in the year have had serious implications for Oromiya (the lowlands of West Hararghe and Borena) and Somali regions. About 8.6 million rural Ethiopians will continue to need humanitarian assistance in 2007. Furthermore, approximately US$ 129 million is required to address non-food needs, including flood rehabilitation and recovery programs. According to the information from the Food Security Bureau, as many as 7.3 million chronically food insecure people will need cash or food assistance through the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) in 2007, and emergency needs assessments show that another 1.3 million people will require emergency food assistance (with a total food cost of about US $ 116 million) during the peak hunger season (July/August). More than 85 percent of the current emergency beneficiaries are concentrated in pastoral areas of the south and southeast of Somali and Oromiya regions, while the PSNP beneficiaries are all in the eastern half of the country.

Seasonal Calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: FEWS NET

Areas for critical monitoring

Given the current food security situation and the 2007 gu/belg outlook, and provided that the current escalating prices are contained, and resources are transferred to the needy on time, there is unlikely to be a significant upward revision of needs. However, given the new approach[i] to determining acute needs and the limited recovery to date of the currently high levels of food insecure and vulnerable pastoral populations, continued vigilance and improved targeted monitoring and assessments are becoming crucial. The following areas require critical monitoring:

Timely delivery of emergency assistance: Ensuring adequate and timely delivery of food and non-food relief assistance (health and nutrition, water and sanitation, etc.) while improving targeting practices is necessary in order to sustain a positive impact on the nutritional status of those affected by various hazards (escalating prices, poor performances of rains, conflict, livestock import ban, health related problems, etc). While food is the immediate priority, non-food interventions, especially in pastoral areas, covering human and animal health and water interventions and sanitation also need urgent funding and implementation. Failure to maintain assistance programs at this time of year can lead quickly to starvation and depletion of productive assets, as households struggle to meet their basic needs. Combined with current monitoring data to project future needs, nutritional surveys and surveillance and targeted responses to those most in need are especially important at this point.

Escalating cereal prices: Staple food prices are currently heading beyond the reach of poor households in both agricultural and pastoral areas. The inability of local markets to address local needs will increase the level of imported food requirements. As the belg/gu rainy season progresses, there is a need to closely monitor changes in market supplies and prices that signal impending surpluses or scarcities.

Spread of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD): Despite reports of decline, AWD continues to be found in new areas. It is of major concern in Somali and pockets of SNNP and Oromiya regions, and is currently spreading in Afar. From June 2006 through February 2007, there were about 700 reported deaths with more than 60,000 caseload reports. In addition to causing human death, AWD is also food security concern. While AWD limits and individual’s food utilization, households spend a lot of money that would otherwise be used for food on its treatment, and by affecting young and able-bodied people, household productivity and income earning potential decline. Children and mothers are the most affected. Rains are expected to be above normal and may renew conditions favorable to the spread of AWD, with a possibility of AWD spreading to other parts of the country, where water and hygienic services are poor, levels of immunization low, and there is a shortage of trained personnel. Provision of clean water and promotion of sanitary services could contain the spread.

Spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF): This is normally associated with heavy rainfall and flooding, as in 1997/98 and 2000/01 and now, in parts of the GHA in 2006/07. So far contained within Kenya, Somalia, and Tanzania, an estimated 200 people and many livestock have died. Livestock reproduction rates have declined, and markets and borders have been closed, which will have serious medium and long term implications for pastoral livelihoods. In Ethiopia, necessary measures are ongoing, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) may lift its import ban on Ethiopian livestock, which was put in January 2007. As heavy rains and renewed flooding could contribute to a resurgence of RVF in the coming season, detailed and timely information is required to support appropriate response planning.

Possible flooding in pastoral areas: Given normal/above normal outlook for the 2007 belg/gu season, there is a possibility of intermittent floods, especially in pastoral areas. Flooding can facilitate the spread of disease, including AWD and RVF.

Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) resource transfers: It is crucial to ensure a set of basic standards for the timely resourcing and implementation of the PSNP in order to protect the lives and livelihoods of the beneficiary group. Delays in PSNP transfer in 2005 along with the late arrival and underestimation of emergency assistance in some areas increased the level of food insecurity in a number of chronically food insecure areas, increasing the number of emergency beneficiaries.

Localized conflicts: Recent reports from Borena zone of Oromiya region, Degehabur and Liben zones of Somali region and, intermittently, from Afar region, indicate a situation that warrants careful monitoring. The consequences of conflicts include the deliberate destruction of agricultural and livestock production capacity, markets, and health and water infrastructure, as well as direct attacks on humans, increasing the level of risk inherent in agricultural activities.

Market analysis

Figure 2. Addis Ababa wholesale prices for selected staple cereals   FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2002-2006 monthly average   FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: Data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal. (2) One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr ≈ 12 US Cents.

Cereal prices remained much above average throughout 2006, and despite a significant increase in production (10 - 15 percent higher than last year and more than 50 percent above the recent average), prices remain at high levels or have increased even further in January and February 2007 in all selected major markets of the country (figures 2 and 3). February wholesale mixed teff, white wheat, and white maize prices in the terminal market of Addis Ababa were 87, 63 and 37 higher than their five year average levels, respectively, implying that prices for most of cereals are the highest since 1994.

Price reports from Somali Region, a typical pastoral area, indicate pastoralists’ terms of trade have been declining. Cereal prices have been steadily rising in recent months, while livestock prices have fallen, following the decline in demand since the stricter trade restrictions have been imposed, including an import ban from the United Arab Emirates.

Increases in cereal prices are normal in January and February, as the flow of recently harvested grains slows down. Given the very high level of prices currently prevailing, future increases are worrisome, and during the typical hungry season (June-August) an increasing number of rural households will have depleted their stocks and will have to resort to market purchases.

Steady increases in cereal prices alongside a significant increase in cereal production indicate that the growth in supply has failed to meet the growth in demand, which has been steadily rising, particularly in urban areas. Cereal consumption by rural producers has also increased. With an increase in population and modest increase in economic growth, demand is likely to continue surpassing supply, unless there is more investment in household and commercial agriculture as well as small scale food processing.

Very high grain prices may appear good for producers, but they erode the purchasing power of many consumers in Ethiopia. Rising prices will continue to have a deleterious impact on already food insecure households with limited income options in both urban and rural areas. These households invariably rely on the market to meet their food needs for major parts of the year. Significant increases in cereal prices will put staple foods out of the reach of poor households in both agricultural and pastoral areas, leading to increasing food aid requirements, and a failure of local markets to address local needs.

Weather update

In Ethiopia, the amount and spatial and temporal distributions of the belg/gu season (March-May) rainfall are extremely important and have wider implications for food security. Belg/gu rains are crucial for crop production in the northeastern and southern highlands; for replenishing pasture and water sources in the pastoral and agro-pastoral southeastern lowlands; for meher (main) season land preparation and the planting of long cycle meher crops (maize and sorghum); for maintaining the required water levels in hydroelectric dams; and for reducing the threat of wild forest and bush fires in forest and semi-arid areas.

Figure 4. Satellite estimated rainfall compared to long-term average (1st dekad of December ‘06 – 2nd dekad of March ‘07)
December 1 -10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	December 11 - 20 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	December 21 -31 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
January 1 -10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	January 11 - 20 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	January 21 -31 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
February 1 -10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	February 11 - 20 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	February 21 - 28 FULL-SIZE IMAGE
March 1 - 10 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	March 11 - 20 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Difference from Average   FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: NOAA Rainfall Image, produced By: USGS-EROS Data Center. Graphics by FEWS NET.

This year, the belg rains started early during the first dekad of December, covering most of the belg crop producing areas by the end of the month. Belg rains are normally intermittent, beginning in the second half of February over the northern highlands and southwestern parts of the country. March is the time when the belg or secondary rains continue to increase in amount and distribution over much of the country, in particular the northern highlands, central and southwestern regions. By mid April, the rains spread to almost all parts of the country and approach their peak.

The southwestern and southeastern parts of the country remained unseasonably cloudy and rainy in January and the beginning of February. The rains were generally light, with moderately heavy showers observed only in some places (see figure 4). While the rains started early in December and January, they were poorly distributed from the end of February to the beginning of March. National Meteorological Agency (NMA) forecasts predict that the rainfall regime will strengthen through March and continue through April. Belg dependent areas are currently receiving adequate rainfall amounts, and the recent dry spells are not expected to have any negative impact. Good rainfall is expected during the month of access, according to NMA forecast. May is also is expected to be wet over most parts of belg and meher growing areas as well.

The unseasonable rains in December and January, coupled with good belg rainfall totals as of mid February, with dry intervals in between, were sufficient for land preparation and planting of crops in belg-dependent areas, particularly in the high altitude areas. In high altitude areas (more than 2,000 meters above sea level) of North Wello, South Wello and North Shewa zones, farmers may have started land preparation for planting long cycle crops and short-cycle belg season crops, taking advantage of the situation.

In addition, the unseasonable rains have improved the availability of pasture and water in southern and southeastern pastoral areas. The early onset of rains in the pastoral areas of the south and east bodes well for pastoralists recovering from drought and livestock loss. The other benefit of these unexpected rains is the reduction of forest and bush fires that are normally prevalent during the dry season.

Overall, the effect of the current belg conditions on the future food security situation and projected humanitarian needs cannot yet be quantified. An official assessment will be made in late may or early June, when the duration and quality of the rains will be known.

Belg/Gu/Ganna Season Climate Outlook

Figure 5. 2007 Belg/Gu/Ganna season (March – May) climate outlook FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: NMA Climate Outlook forum, Feb 2007 Graphics by FEWS NET

The National Meteorological Agency (NMA) released its belg/gu 2007 climate forecast on February 1, 2007. Through an analysis of global climate indicators, the NMA forecasts a normal to above normal season in the main belg producing and south and southeastern pastoral areas (Figure 5). According to the forecast, only areas of the extreme north and northwest may receive normal rainfall. It is also predicted that in general, belg/gu 2007 rains are expected to start and stop at the normal time.

Northeast, Central and Eastern highlands: These areas are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season. The mainly belg-dependent northeastern highlands are expecting a possibility of having another normal belg harvest.