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Figure 1. Food insecurity risk   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET, WFP, province and district officials, National Institute of Statistics

Households are currently food secure, as food availability is good throughout Rwanda due to the above-average season 2007A harvests that ended in January.

However, localized food insecurity remains (Figure 1). In Bugesera, many households are food insecure as a result of poor 2007A bean production. In the Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau food economy zones, high population densities and poor soil fertility make the region chronically food insecure. Heavy rainfall at the end of January caused floods that destroyed homes, crops and infrastructure, particularly in southern and eastern regions. Additionally, foot and mouth disease in Nyagatare and Gatsibo districts is threatening pastoralist livelihoods, and a cholera outbreak in Nyagatare has already killed 12 and infected about 400 people.

Food prices continue to be above average, restricting household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income.

Seasonal calendar

* Season B Sorghum is sown from December

Figure 2. Cumulative seasonal rainfall across Rwanda, in mm   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 3. Rainfall in January 2007, by sector   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Figure 4. Rainfall in January 2007 as percentage of long-term average, by sector   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Agricultural activities and climate outlook

Due to the delay in season 2007A harvests from a late start to the rains, fields have not been ready for 2007B planting as usual. In particular, sowing of sorghum, the main cereal of the season, has been delayed, as the crop is normally sown beginning in December. Forecasts from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center indicate that the February, March and April season will be similar to the long-term average, with normal to slightly above-normal levels of rainfall. In this situation, Season B planting activities could increase sufficiently for the harvest to begin on time in May, especially for beans. Households would then have access to own-produced food and would avoid a significant hunger period between seasons. However, if the rainfall prediction does not prove valid and the dry season occurs prematurely before the end of May, crops, especially sorghum, will not mature and production could fail. This would extend the hunger season, decrease food availability and income from food sales and increase food insecurity into the second half of the year.

Localized heavy rains threaten food security

Cumulative season 2007A rainfall totals are near long-term averages (see Figure 2). From January 1 through 31, average rainfall across the country was 87 percent of the long-term average (Figures 3 and 4), which was sufficient to enable late-planted crops to mature.

However, localized heavy rains, hailstorms and flooding from January 19 to early February caused at least eight deaths and significant property damage (Figure 5). The affected areas include the chronically food-insecure Eastern and Southern provinces, where crop losses and flooded infrastructure are exacerbating the existing food insecurity and threaten the current season’s harvest. The impacts are particularly severe in Nyaruguru District, where the rains caused land degradation in a flood-prone valley, rendering it unusable for agriculture for at least one or two seasons. WFP has quickly responded with food for work projects in Nyaruguru to help rebuild damaged community assets, and the government has distributed food to the affected population.

Disease outbreaks affect local food security

Disease outbreaks are also impacting localized food security. Foot and mouth disease (FMD) has been reported in Rwimbogo in Gatsibo District and Karangazi in Nyagatare District, both in the Eastern Province. The disease poses a significant threat to household income and livelihoods, given that the region is pastoral. To contain the highly contagious disease, the two sectors have been placed under quarantine, and will be unable to sell any animal products. These disease control measures restrict household income and food access, as the sale of livestock is an important source of cash to purchase grains and other essentials.

An outbreak of cholera in Nyagatare District in Eastern Province has so far claimed 12 lives, and about 400 people are suspected to be infected. Urgent attention is required to prevent the spread of the disease and to save people that are already affected, particularly with the provision of safe water. If the disease is not rapidly controlled, a decrease in available labor may affect planting activities and threaten the harvest that should begin in May. The most-affected areas include the sectors of Rukomo, Tabagwe and Karama, and the Nyagatare main prison.

Food markets, prices and trade

Figure 6. Key food prices index, Kigali, Mar 2005 – Jan 31, 2007 (March 1, 2005 = 100)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

This month, prices for most food commodities remained high. The elementary net food price index calculated for beans, sorghum, maize, rice, cassava flour, Irish and sweet potato and bananas in 4 markets of Kigali City increased by 3 percent from December 06 to January 07, an unseasonable increase given that prices usually decrease at this time of year as the Season A harvest is available on the market (see Figure 6). The prices of all these commodities increased, except for beans

which decreased by 4 percent. Compared to the same period last year, prices in Kigali markets (Figure 7) are on average 31 percent higher, including substantial increases for sweet potato (87 percent), Irish potato (75 percent), cassava flour (68 percent) and sorghum (33 percent). The increase in prices of sweet potato, cassava and Irish potato, mainly due to reduced production levels over the past several years, is worrying as they constitute a reserve food for the lean period in April to May. The increase in sorghum prices is due to low production during the current season, but sorghum is not a significant crop during season A harvests. The increase in prices of these staple foods restricts household food access, particularly for poor agro-laborers whose income from labor comprises 60 percent of household income.

In January 2006, Rwanda imported 3,601 MT of maize through the Gatuna border post with Uganda, consisting of 2,413 MT of grain and 1,189 MT of flour (Figure 8). This level of imports is comparable to the average level of the last two years and shows that domestic maize production is insufficient to satisfy national demand, especially as maize export levels are not significant.

Figure 7. Change in food prices in Kigali City markets, Jan 2007 vs. same period in 2006   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

Figure 8. Trade across the Gatuna border (Jan 2007) in MT     FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: RATES/FEWS NET

WFP PRRO pipeline

For February to July 2007, food requirements to meet needs are estimated at 13,045 MT for all commodities (Figure 9). For the period, the WFP pipeline has a surplus of 6,883 MT, which will allow WFP to implement its assistance program in full.