Initial production estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that national 2006/07 cereal production was 2.17 million MT, an increase of 2.4 percent over last year and 14.4 percent greater than the five-year average. The national figure masks severe regional disparities, as harvests in the northern and central regions were above average, while production in the south was 27 percent lower than last year and 18.8 percent below the five-year average as a result of significant seasonal rainfall deficits.

The poor production in the south, combined with the impacts of floods and cyclones in early 2007, is increasing food insecurity in the southern region and in the semi-arid and remote areas of the central region. Resettlement continues in most flood-affected areas, although potable water supply remains limited and households are relying on unprotected water sources. In southern and semi-arid central areas, households tend to rely on their own production for most of their food, and the below-average production is limiting their food access. Maize prices have not decreased seasonably and are likely to increase in the coming months, further restricting access for households that do purchase some of their food. Increased food insecurity may continue in these areas until the next main harvest in early 2008, unless the second-season harvest in July and August is sufficient to increase availability and improve household food access.

Elsewhere, households are generally food secure. Households in surplus-production areas in the central and northern regions are likely to have food available until the next main harvest in April 2008, with localized exceptions in the coastal areas of Nampula and Cabo Delgado where production was poor. However, prices are below average and favorable for household access. The demand for Mozambican cereal exports may increase in the coming marketing year as countries in the region that produced in deficit this season increase their demand for maize imports.

Seasonal timeline and critical events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

2006/07 production estimates

The recently released production estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that 2006/07 cereal production (including maize, sorghum, millet and rice) was about 2.17 million MT, an increase of 2.4 percent from last year and 14.4 percent above the five-year average (Figure 1). The northern region (Niassa, Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces) produced 846,945 MT, slightly more than last year and about 18 percent above the five-year average. The central region (Zambézia, Tete, Manica and Sofala provinces) produced about 1.2 million MT, an increase of 9 percent from last year and 17 percent above the average. The southern region (Inhambane, Gaza and Maputo provinces) produced 129,818 MT, which corresponds to a decrease of 27 percent from last year’s production and also a decrease of 18.8 percent compared to the average.

Figure 1. 2006/07 cereal, pulse and cassava production estimates compared to the five-year average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2007

The production of pulses at the national level is estimated to be 366,000 MT, virtually the same as last year but close to 16 percent above average. In the northern and central provinces, the production of pulses was above last year’s level and the five-year average. In the south, pulse production was estimated at 59,000 MT, a decrease of 12 percent from last year but an increase of 1.7 percent from the average.

The national production of cassava was 8.2 million MT, an increase of 8 percent over the previous season and 30.5 percent from the average. Cassava production was recorded as particularly above average in the south, which will offset the below-average production of cereals in terms of local food availability.

The production of maize – the most important staple crop for Mozambican households – was also greater than last year and more than the five-year average in the northern and central provinces (see Figure 2 below). Production was also above average in Gaza Province in the south, although less than during the 2005/06 season. However, maize production this season is below average in Inhambane and Maputo provinces – as low as one third of 2005/06 production and half of the average in Maputo.

The production estimates need to be integrated with other food balance inputs to show to what extent food needs for the 2007/08 consumption year will be met by this harvest. The food balance sheet is currently being processed by the Department of Commerce of the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, and is expected to be released in early July.

Figure 2. Maize crop production (in MT) in the 2006/07 agriculture season, compared with the previous season and the five-year average (2001/02-2005/06)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2007

Food security overview

In 39 districts severely affected by drought, floods and cyclones in the past rainy season, vulnerability assessment teams have completed field work to assess levels of household food insecurity. The group is currently analyzing how the households are coping, and will project upcoming food security conditions until the next major harvest that will begin in early 2008. Results are expected in early July. While the analyses are underway, qualitative field information indicates that food security is deteriorating as a result of the combined effects of poor food availability and access. Key causes of current increasing food insecurity include very low production this year, due to drought and floods; below-normal availability of income-generating opportunities in the 39 districts; maize prices that are not decreasing seasonably and may very soon increase; and below-average availability and quality of water for human consumption.   

The food security situation is not yet critical. There have been no reports to date of increasing or above-normal rates of school drop-outs, nor employment of other extreme coping mechanisms. However, concerns are increasing about the potential impacts of food deficits in the near future in the southern and in the semi-arid and remote areas of central provinces. The impact of the recent shocks combined with structural problems (including limited road access, high malnutrition, poorly integrated markets and HIV/AIDS) is now decreasing food access, especially for the worst-off households (see section below on livelihoods in the south). These households have limited dietary diversity and have already reduced their number of meals to one or two per day. The poorest households, such as those headed by widows and elders living with orphans, are already food insecure as they are the least productive households and have limited access to income-generating opportunities. These households are already being assisted by social security programs.

In flood-affected areas along the Zambezi basin, the resettlement process is underway, under the direction of the provincial governments. Interventions in water, food and infrastructure are ongoing, although there are reports of food shortages in some places. The World Food Program (WFP) provided general food distribution in May and plans to continue doing so until the end of June. Food-for-asset activities related to resettlement will start once the VAC results are compiled. According to WFP, although emergency needs for the immediate initial response were covered, there is currently a shortfall in resources for the regular Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation, at a time when operations should be scaled up to respond to the impacts of the drought in certain parts of the country.

There are still problems with the supply of potable water in the resettlement process. Various resettlement centers are experiencing delays in opening new water sources, and households are relying on unprotected sources of water. This has resulted in the occurrence of diseases such as dysentery, dermatitis, conjunctivitis and wound, ear, noise, throat and skin infections in camps and villages.

Elsewhere in the central and northern regions, most households still have carry-over stocks, and food availability is expected to be good until the next harvest in April 2008 (see markets section below). In some areas, particularly in the central region, food prices are below average at this time, which is facilitating food access through market purchases. However, pockets of localized food insecurity may emerge in parts of Niassa Province and coastal areas of Nampula and Cabo Delgado provinces once the lean season begins. In Niassa and coastal Cabo Delgado, excessive rains reduced yields, as the crops were submerged for an extended period of time. In coastal Nampula, where cassava is a staple food, the poorly distributed rainfall this season, persistent cassava brown streak disease and poor soils increase the local risk of food insecurity. However, households in this area have access to other sources of food and income, including fishing, which will likely provide sufficient resources for households to meet their minimum food and non-food needs.

The second production season continues and is progressing well where conditions permit, primarily in lowland areas with adequate residual moisture and low temperatures. Although its contribution is limited both in quantity and spatial coverage, second-season production can mitigate the impacts of the poor production of the first season. As the season progresses toward the harvest time in July and August, attention should be given to the start of the main agricultural season in September, as the harvest of the second-season crops may overlap with and impact land preparation for the main season. Input trade fairs and seed quality verification programs should be expanded to enable food-insecure households to start the next major season, in particular in areas where the main 2006/07 season performed poorly.

Livelihoods in southern Mozambique and impact of production losses

Rural households in southern Mozambique are particularly vulnerable to production losses given their livelihoods. Rural areas in the south are generally remote and isolated from markets and roads, which limits household ability to earn cash income, especially from activities other than selling crops or agricultural labor. In some areas, such as along the Limpopo River in northwest Gaza Province, the economy is almost completely subsistence-based, with own-production being the main or sole source of household food access. In the semi-arid interior zone away from the Limpopo River, poor households are able to earn some income from working in agricultural activities or engaging in petty trade, but still rely on the market for less than a quarter of their food. Near the main markets of Maputo, Chókwe, Xai-Xai and Maxixe, households have more income-earning opportunities, including receiving remittances from relatives working in the cities and in neighboring countries, and are generally less dependent on crop production. Most households in the south do not have such a diversified livelihood base, however.

As a result of the reliance on own-production for food access for poor households, the production losses in the recent harvest will decrease household access in the coming months. Maize is the main cereal crop, and comprises between 25 and 65 percent of household food consumption throughout the south. Households that lost significant amounts of their maize crop will have to reduce the amount of maize consumed, either by reducing the number of meals or substituting another crop for maize. Cassava is an important substitute crop for many households, and production of the crop was good this season, especially along the coast in the south. This will partially offset the impact of the maize losses, although cassava has less nutritional value than maize and normally comprises a much smaller proportion of consumed food than maize.

The increasing price trend of maize will also limit access for households that are able to earn some income. Prices in May were close to normal levels, but were staying constant or increasing at a time when prices normally decrease as the harvest becomes available on the market (see section on maize prices below). If the price increase continues, household food access will be limited by both restricted access in the markets and the losses in their own production. The full impact of the below-average availability is being established by the vulnerability assessment teams, but many households in the south are likely to be food insecure at least until second-season crops become available in July or August, and possibly through early 2008 if the second-season production is insufficient to cover main-season production deficits.

Maize prices higher than average in southern markets

Maize prices are not declining seasonably in markets in the south. Normally, maize prices reach their lowest around May or June, begin to rise again around August and September and reach their peak around January and February. As a result of the low supply of maize this year, however, maize prices have remained steady and above average in April and May (figure 3), when prices usually decrease with the onset of the harvest. In Chókwe, an important market that households and wholesalers depend on in northern and interior Gaza Province, maize prices have been increasing since January, although they were below average until May. For poor and middle-income households that depend on market purchases to meet food needs, the rising prices will undermine their ability to access sufficient food.

Figure 3. Real maize retail prices in selected markets, in meticais per kg   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMA

Currently, much of the available maize in southern markets is from surplus-producing areas of central and northern regions, according to the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA). In northern and central markets, freshly harvested maize and stocks from last year’s harvest have fully replenished markets and caused prices to decline (see Nampula and Beira markets in figure 3). In most markets in these areas, prices have fallen nearly 50 percent since March. Maize prices reached as low as one metical in Morrumbala and Milange in Zambézia Province, which is well below average as a result of the availability of old stocks, recent 2006/07 season production and imported maize from Malawi. As the harvest progresses, the expected continued drop in producer and retail prices will benefit consumer households who purchase their food.

On the other hand, unless additional market outlets are found for the northern surpluses, the very low farm-gate prices could hurt farmers and lead to a reduction in planting next season, especially for poor farming households that have limited storage capacity and must sell their grain shortly after harvest. The steadily decreasing prices will facilitate food access, but will limit some producer households from meeting other discretionary needs, such as clothing, school supplies and medicines.

Normally, surplus production in central and northern areas is exported to the normally deficit southern Malawi region, but Malawi has produced a bumper harvest in the 2006/07 season. The demand for Mozambican surplus production will depend on trade flows throughout the southern African region, as countries in the south of the region such as Zimbabwe that produced in deficit this past season look to import maize.