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Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Uganda and the drought affected population in Karamoja remain food insecure and mainly reliant on the feeding program implemented by the World Food Programme (WFP). Civil stability and increasing access to land and agricultural inputs in northern Uganda over the next twelve months are crucial to the self sufficiency and food security of the IDPs. As rains begin in Karamoja, a normal season is imperative to avert a prolonged need for assistance in the region. The WFP is seeking additional funding to bridge an over 66,000 MT deficit in food supplies, between May and December 2007, to its pipeline catering for needs of IDPs, drought affected and other target populations. Any increased needs assessed in June will place more demands on already stretched pipeline. Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), a viral disease affecting sheep and goats, remains rampant in Karamoja with no known controls established; the disease has reduced the size of household’s small ruminant herds, increasing their susceptibility to food insecurity.

After a delayed start to the season, followed by poor distribution of rainfall in April, the rains were established but remained patchy in many locations. These recent rains have helped farmers in bimodal areas tend crops, benefiting cereals and pulses in critical growth stages and raising harvest prospects. Most of the cereals are tasselling or forming cobs/heads and require rains through June to enable normal harvests that should begin in late June.

Seasonal Timeline

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Northern Uganda: Peace negotiation resume, increased hope for IDP resettlement

Civil insecurity in northern Uganda remains unpredictable but stable, with only a few isolated incidents reported over the past several weeks. Peace negotiations between the Government of Uganda and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) resumed in April with significant progress and achievements already attained, enhancing the northern population’s hope for a return to normalcy in the region. Many people remain internally displaced in camps where humanitarian conditions are still poor and they suffer moderate to high food insecurity; these internally displaced persons (IDPs) depend on humanitarian organizations for the bulk of their food and non food needs. District officials and non government organizations working with IDPs report increased access to land by the IDPs, who are cultivating crops and benefiting from recently established rains in the region that augur well for improved prospects for the harvest, due to start in late June or early July. Nonetheless, to normalize food production, ensure self sufficiency and stable food security, normal conditions for civil security, good land access and agricultural inputs as well as good weather conditions must be sustained over the next three to four seasons (at least until end of 2008).

The World Food Programme (WFP) is the major provider of food assistance, requiring approximately 22,700 MT per month for its PRRO to meet the food needs of about 1.4 million IDPs and other targeted populations in northern Uganda (including 165,000 refugees, about 500,000 drought affected people in Karamoja) and other vulnerable people elsewhere in the country. Currently, the pipeline faces a shortfall of 66,271 MT from now to December 2007, with shortages of cereals, corn soy blend (CSB) and vegetable oil being the most critical, especially in the last quarter of 2007. While some funds have been received to alleviate gaps forecast up to May, the agency is seeking additional funding to maintain normal supplies to the pipeline and avert breaks that may increase the level of food insecurity for the needy population.

Karamoja: Rains starting, farmers begin cultivating; no control of livestock disease

District officials and NGOs working in the region report that the onset of the rains has allowed farmers to begin cultivating crops. The region requires good rainfall to ensure households produce and regain food supplies to mitigate the effects of a poor season last year. Despite some isolated incidences of violence, reportedly in response to disarmament, civil security has improved leading to increased household mobility and access land. The highly contagious disease affecting sheep and goats, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR), is still rampant and spreading, and may have crossed into neighboring districts, possibly via commercial sale and the movement of small ruminants, mainly goats and sheep. The disease has reduced the size of herds, directly affecting households’ food security by reducing their sources of income and food. Livestock tissue samples were collected by district officials, with UN FAO assistance, and submitted to the central laboratory in Entebbe, but no feedback on results has been provided, nor has the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries officially declared a disease in the region. Consequently, the government has yet to institute controls in the region or mobilize resources for vaccination programs. However, Kenyan authorities are implementing controls of the livestock disease on their side of border. As the availability of pasture and water improves in the region, livestock have reportedly begun returning to homesteads from their dry season grazing areas, increasing household access to milk and livestock products. Households with livestock can sell animals and use the proceeds to access food from markets. Livestock/cereal terms of trade remain stable, affording these households adequate food.

The feeding program to about 500,000 drought-affected persons in the Karamoja region continues through June 2007 – the start of minor harvests of vegetables and pulses – when it will be reviewed on the basis of an assessment (led either by the government and NGOs or by WFP) of crop and food security conditions. The assessment will determine whether the number of beneficiaries should increase or decrease.

Rainy season is established, but rains are still patchy in some locations

Relatively dry conditions that have characterized the first half of the rainy season since its late start in bimodal areas persisted through most of April, marking a slow onset and establishment of the season in most of the country. To date, cumulative recorded rainfall has been below normal in many bimodal areas, where sporadic rains have persisted for most of May, with many areas of central and eastern Uganda still reporting patchy, poorly distributed rains. Overall, this may negatively affected cereals, mainly maize and millet, in central, eastern and western Uganda, where a major proportion of the crop is tasseling and forming cobs/heads and grain filling; low moisture may reduce cob and grain size, limiting overall production. Cereals in these critical stages require rainfall through June to ensure adequate productivity and harvests. The main harvest is expected to begin in late June to early July. A few areas received some rainfall early in the season. Farmers were able to cultivate, and crop conditions remain normal despite lower than normal rains during March and April. The bulk of the pulse crops – beans, cow peas and some pigeon peas – are podding, and the recent rains provided favorable conditions to enable large pod and seed formations.

Figure 1. Rainfall estimates vs long term average, March to May 2007

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FEWS NET/Uganda, May 2007; Source of data: USGS/EDC

Meteosat rainfall imagery provides a reasonable estimate of the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall during a given period. Figure 1 illustrates rainfall from March to May 2007, comparing each period with the long term average. The images confirm much below normal rains in parts of central, southern and western Uganda during March and April, giving way to wetter than normal conditions in eastern Uganda and the Lake Victoria Basin areas.

Pastures in the “cattle corridor”, which stretches diagonally from southwestern to northeastern Uganda, have recovered from the dry season and are currently meeting livestock needs. Water for livestock is also readily available. In Karamoja, cattle are slowly moving back closer to kraals following the onset of the rains in the area. However, many livestock still remain in dry season grazing areas in the wet agriculture belt to the west of the region, where pasture and water are still adequate. Except in Karamoja, where the highly contagious PPR continues to impact food security and incomes of households, major livestock diseases remain manageable in other pastoral areas of Uganda with minimal concerns for food security.

Maize stocks offloaded, declining prices favor household access

Figure 2. Comparative wholesale maize prices for Kampala and Masindi: 2006/07 vs. 2001-02/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Market Information Service; Graphics: FEWS NET/Uganda, May 2007

Maize prices have been largely stable, but above the five-year average (especially in major consumer markets such as Kampala), and have, with some exceptions, generally been following normal seasonal trends since the end of the 2006 second season harvest in February. Prices in key production areas, such as Masindi, averaged nearly 13 percent above the five-year average up to February 2007. Since then, price variations have not been significant and were up to 14 below the five-year average in April. Furthermore, in Kampala and other consumption centers, a slight decline in prices has been observed since early in the year, in contrast to expected increase during the off-season. Declining prices augur well for market dependent households, who are able to access the cereals even at slightly higher than average prices. Traders attribute the decline in prices to increased off loading of stocks in anticipation of new supplies from the current season (although the dry commodity is not expected until late June) and diminished local demand as major exporters have reduced purchases due to high prices that are not competitive in the region, outside South Sudan. In addition to household purchases, demand is also being sustained by educational institutions beginning a new term that opened in May and exports to South Sudan where the need for cereals is pulling stocks from Uganda.