FEWS NET Watch Alert for S. Sudan, published Dec 4 2006

SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Watch

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) issues periodic Watches when there are indications of a possible food security crisis. Decision makers should pay increasing attention to the situation highlighted in this Watch, and prioritize preparedness and contingency planning measures to address the situation.

Issued: December 4, 2006

Increasing civil insecurity tempers post-harvest gains

The harvest in the June to September cropping areas has been completed (see Figure 1), sustaining improved food security for the second month in areas of concern including Aweil East, West, North and South Counties in Northern Bahr El Gazal State, parts of Warrap State (Gogrial County), and Wuror, Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties (see Figure 2).  However, these gains are only likely to be sustained until March 2007, when structural food deficits will begin to affect poor households and returnees.  

However, increased civil insecurity is exacerbating food insecurity and tempering recent improvements.  Ethnic conflict in Gogrial County limited access to land this season.  The disarmament process conducted by the Government of South Sudan earlier this year in Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties has left households more vulnerable to cattle raiding by their armed neighbors in Pibor County.  The civil security situation has deteriorated in Zeraf Island.  In addition, fighting between two security forces in Malakal in Shilluk County erupted toward the end of November and tensions running high.

Increasing civil insecurity caused by organized armed groups in Juba County is also a concern. Although the situation has not reached critical levels, attacks and killings continue especially in villages and along roads heading to Juba town.  Civil insecurity is severely limiting movement and the trade of goods and may have affected agricultural activities during the September to December cropping period in this area. 

Meanwhile, the risk of civil insecurity has increased in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountain zones since the suspension of the Ugandan peace process by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) on November 30.  The LRA had been active in the Hills and Mountains Zone has since the early 1990's.  When the LRA was forced out of northern Uganda and Southern Sudan in November 2005, they crossed through the Greenbelt Zone and attacked and looted the local population.  If the current peace process fails, the situation is expected to deteriorate significantly. 

Large scale population returns encouraged for political reasons related to the population census scheduled to take place in November 2007, could further compound the food security situation.  This will be the first population census since 1993 and is significant because up to four million Southern Sudanese are still estimated to be in northern Sudan.  So far this year, only about 350,000 people have returned to southern Sudan.  Large scale returns will overload the limited capacities that exist to accommodated returnees and increase competition for scarce labor opportunities and wild foods. 

Food Security Early Warning Timeline

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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