Post-harvest gains in food security threatened by increasing civil insecurity and the potential for large-scale population
returns
Source: FEWS NET
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FEWS NET Watch Alert for S. Sudan, published Dec 28 2006
Post-harvest gains in food security threatened by increasing civil insecurity and the potential for large-scale population
returnsIn northern parts of southern Sudan, food security has improved since the harvests began three months ago. This region includes areas where civil insecurity and
population resettlement threaten the recent gains in food security: Aweil East, West, North and South counties in Northern Bahr El Gazal State, parts of Warrap State (Gogrial County), and Wuror,
Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties in Jonglei State (see Figure 1). Across this area, structural food deficits will begin to affect poor and recently resettled households beginning in April
2007.Figure 1: Major areas of concern
Source: FEWS NETIn Gorgial County, food security improvements are unlikely to last beyond February due to reduced cultivation caused by inter ethnic conflict which limited access to land during the June-September season. The disarmament process conducted by the Government of South Sudan earlier this year in Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties has left households more vulnerable to cattle raiding by their armed neighbors in Pibor County. The civil security situation has deteriorated in Zeraf Island. Tension persists in Malakal Town in Shilluk County where fighting between two security forces erupted towards the end of November. In Juba County, civil insecurity caused by organized armed groups continues to limit movement of people and the trade of goods. The risk of civil insecurity has decreased in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountain zones, following the resumption of the Ugandan peace talks in Mid December. The Lord's Resistance Armey (LRA) had been active in the Hills and Mountains Zone since the early 1990's. When the LRA was forced out of northern Uganda and Southern Sudan in November 2005, it crossed through the Greenbelt Zone and attacked and looted the local population. Large scale population returns have been encouraged for political reasons related to the population census scheduled to take place in November 2007, and could have a negative affect on food security in destination areas. This upcoming population census will be the first one since 1993. Up to four million southern Sudanese are estimated to still be in northern Sudan, and an estimated 500,000 of them could return south in 2007. In 2006, about 350,000 people returned to southern Sudan. The increase in the scale of population returns in 2007 will overload the already limited capacities that exist to accommodate returnees, and competition for scarce labor opportunities and off farm food sources such as fish and wild foods will increase. The impact of returnees will be felt most in the densely populated areas of Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states (Gogrial and Twic counties), where according to WFP, 545,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007. There are 250,000 Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda, and if a significant proportion return to Central Equatoria (Juba, Magwi, Torit and Kajokeji), where up to 150,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007. WFP estimates that about 72,000 MT of food aid is needed to address food deficits in 2007 and an additional 36,000 MT is needed as a contingency reserve for the expected 500,000 returnees.
Southern Sudan Food Security Watch |
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) issues periodic Watches when there are indications of a possible food security crisis. Decision makers should pay increasing attention to the situation highlighted in this Watch, and prioritize preparedness and contingency planning measures to address the situation. |
Issued: December 28, 2006 |
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Source: FEWS NETIn Gorgial County, food security improvements are unlikely to last beyond February due to reduced cultivation caused by inter ethnic conflict which limited access to land during the June-September season. The disarmament process conducted by the Government of South Sudan earlier this year in Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties has left households more vulnerable to cattle raiding by their armed neighbors in Pibor County. The civil security situation has deteriorated in Zeraf Island. Tension persists in Malakal Town in Shilluk County where fighting between two security forces erupted towards the end of November. In Juba County, civil insecurity caused by organized armed groups continues to limit movement of people and the trade of goods. The risk of civil insecurity has decreased in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountain zones, following the resumption of the Ugandan peace talks in Mid December. The Lord's Resistance Armey (LRA) had been active in the Hills and Mountains Zone since the early 1990's. When the LRA was forced out of northern Uganda and Southern Sudan in November 2005, it crossed through the Greenbelt Zone and attacked and looted the local population. Large scale population returns have been encouraged for political reasons related to the population census scheduled to take place in November 2007, and could have a negative affect on food security in destination areas. This upcoming population census will be the first one since 1993. Up to four million southern Sudanese are estimated to still be in northern Sudan, and an estimated 500,000 of them could return south in 2007. In 2006, about 350,000 people returned to southern Sudan. The increase in the scale of population returns in 2007 will overload the already limited capacities that exist to accommodate returnees, and competition for scarce labor opportunities and off farm food sources such as fish and wild foods will increase. The impact of returnees will be felt most in the densely populated areas of Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states (Gogrial and Twic counties), where according to WFP, 545,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007. There are 250,000 Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda, and if a significant proportion return to Central Equatoria (Juba, Magwi, Torit and Kajokeji), where up to 150,000 people are already expected to be food insecure in 2007. WFP estimates that about 72,000 MT of food aid is needed to address food deficits in 2007 and an additional 36,000 MT is needed as a contingency reserve for the expected 500,000 returnees.
Food Security Early Warning Timeline
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For more information go to the FEWS NET southern Sudan web
page at www.fews.net/Sudan
USAID/Famine Early Warning System Network
Southern Sudan P. O. Box 66613
00800 Nairobi
Tel 254 ?20-3861475/6/9, 350523/4/5
Fax 3861480, Email: emuchomba@fews.net
