Four months after the 2006/07 bumper agricultural season, markets in northern Nigeria remain well supplied with cereal and cash crops. Demand for these crops from Nigerian traders and neighbouring countries is low due to excess cereal production in Nigeria and across most Sahelian countries. Slight upward trends in cereal prices have been noted since December 2006, due mainly to high fuel prices, normal seasonal consumption patterns, government purchase of excess crops and the resumption of cross-border trade with Niger, Chad and Mali due to decreased availability of cereals in deficit production areas of these countries as household reserves are exhausted.

Livestock prices remain high due to high transportation costs and increased demand from end-of-the-year celebrations. Strong demand from Nigeria is expected to continue to boost livestock trade between Nigeria, Niger and Chad.

Food security and market risks

Though beginning to increase, prices for cereals such as millet and maize are relatively low in the major markets of northern Nigeria, owing to an above average supply and low demand from Nigerian traders and surrounding countries. Persistent low prices will reduce profit margins for farmers and could shift future production trends from these cereals to other crops, causing potential market instability within the country and hampering the flow of cereal from Nigeria to Sahelian countries.

In addition, low availability of and high prices for fuel are limiting the flow of cereals and goods both within the country and across borders for trade with neighbouring countries. Such transport constraints could reduce the quantity of food exported to Sahelian countries during this year’s lean period, decreasing the availability of and increasing prices for these goods in other countries such as Niger.

Market and trade conditions

Nigerian markets are slowly adjusting to a higher-than-normal influx of cereals and cash crops triggered by consecutive good harvests in the country. Prices for cow pea since the harvest have been historically low, following two consecutive years of good production, decreasing demand within the country. Good cow pea harvests in surrounding countries have also reduced demand from Nigerian sources. Historically low prices were also reported for beans.

Millet and maize availability has also increased in Nigeria due to consecutive bumper harvests, an increase in cultivated land for the crops – including a 13 percent increase in land for millet production in 2006 and a nine percent increase in land for maize production – and targeted governmental policies, especially presidential initiatives, aimed at providing subsidized agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds) to farmers to increase production. However, demand for millet and maize from Sahelian countries, many of which also experienced excess production this year, remains low.

The demise of poultry and poultry processing companies following outbreaks of avian influenza in Nigeria has also adversely affected the demand for maize across Nigeria, and recovery remains slow. Traders in Dawanu market in Kano, northern Nigeria, reported remnant stocks for many cereals from the 2005/06 production season as cereals from this production season began to arrive, with the exception of sorghum, for which the increased demand by breweries and other drink manufacturers in southern Nigeria and high demand for consumption by poor populations cleared it from local markets more quickly than other commodities (Figure 1, 2). Nigeria devoted about 7,308,000 hectares of land to sorghum production in 2006, a three percent increase over the area cultivated in 2005.

Figure 1. Price trend of sorghum by month, 2004-2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 2. Price trend of sorghum, pre- and post-harvest 2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 3. Price trend of beef by month, 2004-2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Figure 4. Price trend of fish by month, 2004-2006 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source, Figures 1-4: NAMIS

Despite significant availability, prices for some cereal and cash crops, such as maize and millet, have begun increasing slightly due to the combined effects of current high fuel prices and small decreases in supply due to normal grain consumption patterns. The upcoming lean period in Sahelian countries might also translate into increased cereal exports to localized zones of Niger, Mali and Chad, further boosting demand and triggering higher prices. Ongoing Government of Nigeria (GoN) Ministry of Agriculture programs to purchase crop surpluses from markets are also contributing to an important upward trend in prices.

Traders with high storage capacities are also buying more of the cereal and bean surplus this year, anticipating a fall in production next year due to a possible shift away from the production of commodities for which prices remain low to the production of other, higher income-generating crops.

A recent GoN presidential initiative to increase production of cassava – grown mainly in southern Nigeria – has made this crop another of Nigeria’s export commodities. The GoN exports cassava to other African and Asian countries. This initiative follows from a recent GoN decision that all flour mills must use cassava flour in bread. The initiative, which shifts production from other crops to cassava, led to a 73 percent increase in cassava production between 2005 and 2006. The situation translated into a surplus of cassava production which decreased demand and caused significant financial losses for cassava producers.

Livestock markets

Supply of and demand for livestock are highly dependent on imports from neighboring countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. Most households in Nigeria consume meat regularly, and beef prices were comparatively high throughout 2006 (Figure 3). Recent increases in fuel prices and related transportation costs, as well as increased seasonal demand for livestock in Niger and Burkina Faso, have also contributed to increased animal prices.

Fish production and trade

The GoN’s Fisheries and Aquaculture Initiative is working to boost domestic fish production in coastal states and northern areas near lakes and rivers by two million metric tons at the end of 2007. Current production is estimated to be 500,000 tons. Fish harvesting is seasonal and usually occurs during the dry season. In 2006, the price of dried fish fluctuated through September according to availability, but prices increased in October through December (Figure 4) due to limited favorable production conditions, including limited sun drying and conservation problems and increased fuel prices.

Nutrition situation

Concerns remain regarding high infant, child and maternal mortality rates in Nigeria, despite the initiation of vitamin and mineral deficiency control measures in 1996. Despite overall efforts to reduce child mortality, Nigeria is not yet on track to attain the Millennium Development Goal of reducing, child mortality by two-thirds by 2015.

The annual National Nutrition Networking (NNN) meeting, held in November 2006, paid considerable attention to vitamin A deficiency in the country, and there are indications that the large scale vitamin A supplementation (VAS) that was integrated into Nigeria’s National Immunization Days (NID) in 2000 had achieved over 75 percent coverage for children aged 6-59 months by the end of 2006, compared to 27 percent coverage through routine immunization. Considering the success of the NIDs, the GoN added a second round in 2006. The present challenge is how to sustain VASs and achieve higher coverage goals without the expenses associated with NIDs. Other concerns include: effective coordination and implementation mechanisms, sustainability strategies, logistics – particularly to reach poor households in remote areas, supplies, monitoring and supervision. Though the GoN is involved in vitamin A distributions, current supplies are donor provided, and the private sector is not integrated into the supply and delivery system. In addition, little has been done to address vitamin and mineral deficiencies through sustainable dietary diversification

Nigeria has attained nearly 100 percent fortification of wheat flour, 60 percent fortification of retail/packaged vegetable oil and 100 percent fortification of sugar. However, locally processed maize flour and groundnut oil, consumed by the majority of northern populations, are not fortified with vitamin A. Nigeria has also attained over 90 percent salt iodization and efforts to doubly fortify salts with iodine and iron are ongoing.

Programs and policies

The Food and Agricultural Organization and the GoN have been developing a market information system (MIS) to increase the efficiency of marketing systems in the country and promote improved price information to enable farmers to better plan production in line with market demand, schedule harvests at the most profitable times, decide to which markets they should send their products and better negotiate with traders. An efficient market information system will also help traders make storage decisions and move their produce profitably from surplus to deficit production areas. While there can be little dispute of the need for this information, current MIS planning and operations are highly dependent on donors and are therefore unsustainable. A re-evaluation of the current MIS structure is recommended.