FEWS NET Monthly Report for Ethiopia covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update November 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

 

Summary and implications

Very good meher production prospects, recent good rains in pastoral areas and ongoing humanitarian assistance are improving the food security and nutrition situation in Ethiopia.  More than 7.3 million chronically food insecure people have benefited in 2006 from participation in the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), receiving predictable food or cash transfers during the hungry season.  About 3 million others are currently receiving assistance to recover from the effects of prolonged drought in pastoral areas and the effects of recent floods in other areas, exacerbated by very high cereal prices.

The impacts of consecutive rain failure and the recent floods will continue through the next few months, and the 3 million current recipients will continue to require emergency assistance through the end of 2006.  The recent rains in Somali Region have been encouraging but will not lead to an immediate reduction in beneficiary figures, as a significant recovery will take several months.  A large food insecure population will remain through the first quarter of 2007, and a lack of sufficient carryover resources at the beginning of the year could result in widespread food shortages.

Fewer people are expected to require emergency assistance in 2007 than the 3 million food aid recipients of 2006, and could be limited to the northeastern and southeastern lowlands and the few crop-dependent areas affected by the July to August 2006 floods.  Humanitarian needs are likely to be much lower than last year in crop-dependent areas, which will benefit most from this season's good production and where the PSNP will address the needs of chronically food insecure households.  The Government and donors should ensure that sufficient funds are available to cover the reduced humanitarian needs of Ethiopia at least for the first half of next year.

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Humanitarian needs

 Figure 1: Percentage of population needing humanitarian assistance in 2006 (Emergency + PSNP)

Data source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB).  Graphics: FEWS NET, September 2006.

Current hazard summary

• Complete or partial 2005 deyr (October ? December) and 2006 gu (March ? May) season failures in southern and southeastern Ethiopia negatively affected the livelihoods of millions of pastoralists, who still require significant recovery time.
• Floods and hailstorms killed more than 600 people, with many more unaccounted for, and caused serious damage to crops and household assets during the meher rainy season (June to September 2006) and current deyr season.
• Cereal prices remain at record-high levels; terms-of-trade continue to be unfavorable for pastoralists. 
• Population influx from neighboring Somalia due to security reasons is creating extra pressure on depleted resources.
• Tribal and resource-based conflicts occurred between August and October in southern Oromiya and Somali regions.
• Formal and informal commercial cross-border trade with Somalia is restricted due to insecurity and official border closure.

Somali Region Update

Food security prospects in Somali Region in the coming months are mixed.  Intensive, widespread and heavy deyr season rains (October to December) are causing flash floods and river overflows and continue to threaten the food security of pastoralist households in the southern zones.  The rains will still be beneficial in many areas, but will not directly lead to a full recovery from the shocks of previous seasons and years.  Somali Region's food security situation is still classified as poor, and more than 1.5 million people ? about 40 percent of the rural population ? currently rely on humanitarian assistance.

The areas in the region that suffered severe dry conditions over the last two seasons (deyr 2005 and gu 2006) were labeled as hot-spots, and their slow recovery has been jeopardized by the recent floods.  Heightened concerns prevail in Mustahil, Kelafo, Ferfer, West and East Imy and West Gode woredas for this reason. While the rains subsided in the first dekad of November in these and other southern zones of the region, significant challenges in responding to the crisis remain, including a continuing risk of increases in waterborne human and livestock diseases.  The Regional DPPB reports that food aid has been distributed throughout the region in recent months, sustaining people's lives and livelihoods through the last year's crisis. These southern zones will continue to require emergency assistance at least until the current rains begin to provide respite and recovery.

The repatriation and population influx from Somalia (about 2,500 people) due to security reasons is putting extra pressure on the already scarce resources in eastern zones of the region, especially in Warder and Afder zones.

The food security in most areas not affected by floods that experienced normal to above-normal rains is expected to improve, especially areas outside of the major river basins.  In these areas, hand-dug reservoirs (berkads) and natural water ponds were filled, movement of people in search of water and pasture has slowed down and water tankering operations appear to be halted.  Degehabour, Fiq and some parts of Liban and Warder Zones have seen moderate improvements, but a full recovery will depend on subsequent good seasons.  Agro-pastoral Jijiga and Shinile zones received normal karan (July to September) rains and expect near-normal harvests in November.

Rains are expected to continue to be good in November and December, but the final months of 2006 and first quarter of 2007 will be critical in terms of continuing humanitarian needs.  Lack of sufficient carryover resources at the beginning of the year could result in widespread food shortages.  Urgent and continued comprehensive humanitarian assistance is needed in the short-term to respond to the ongoing crisis, and sustained efforts to mitigate the chronic extreme food insecurity prevalent in many parts of the region must remain a priority.

The current improvements should still be closely monitored, particularly in flood-affected areas.  The progress of this short season (deyr) and the full impact of recent floods will be assessed during the late November/December multi-agency assessment period, which will evaluate the response to the current crisis and also determine if the availability of pasture and water is sufficient until the next rainy season (gu) in March/April 2007.

Meher Season Harvest Update

Following the seasonal rainfall, meher harvesting has begun in the north during the start of the dry period in October and will peak in November and proceed across the country to the south and southwest.  Seasonal patterns are expected to continue this year with minor interruptions in October.

The performance of the 2006 belg season rains (mid-February to May) was normal with the exception of few woredas. These belg rains were critical for the planting of long-cycle crops (maize and sorghum) to be harvested during the meher season.  The onset, amount and distribution of kiremt rains (June to September) were also generally favorable in the typical meher producing areas, though there were reports of heavy rainfalls and floods in some crop-dependent areas.

Despite unseasonably wet weather, including excessive rains and hail storms during the month of October, harvesting was not seriously affected over much of the northwestern and western parts of the country.  The extent of these effects was limited and their overall impact is considered to be negligible to the national production performance.  Any impacts on crop production resulting from late rains will be assessed by the needs assessment starting November 16, 2006.

The overall production prospects for the 2006/07 meher season crop production suggest a marked increase over the previous year, which was higher than the average of the previous five years.  Reasons for good prospects include:

• Good performance of rains during the belg (March to May) and the kiremt (June to September) seasons; 
• Expected increase in area planted (the current-year area planted, which was the highest of the past several years, is expected to be either maintained or increased for 2006/07); 
• Above-average cereal and cash crop prices throughout the course of 2005 and 2006 marketing season, helping better-off farmers in the west to purchase and utilize more inputs (improved seed and fertilizer);
• Late rains during September and October that improved crop production prospects in some areas where there had been reports of late onset and erratic rainfall distribution.  This is also expected to boost pulses production as it increases residual moisture during September and October;
• Low likelihood of frost in frost-prone areas of the country in addition to favorable dry conditions during the dry season, according to forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA); and
• No reports of serious incidents of pests.

The 2006/07 meher harvest season crop production estimate and its impact on the national food security situation of 2007 will be assessed by the DPPA-led multi-agency assessment team, the MoARD/FAO/WFP CFSAM and the Central Statistical Authority (CSA) during mid-November to December, and the final results are expected in early January.

Weather Update

Most meher crop-dependent areas have received sufficient rainfall for crop development during their major rainy season (June to September).  These areas are expected to be seasonably dry from November to January. 

In October the weather was unseasonably wet over much of the northern, northwestern and western parts of the country.  Rainfall in the southern rangelands was above-normal but seasonably wet.  Rains appear to have subsided since (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Satellite estimated rainfall compared to long-term average (first dekad of October through second dekad of November 2006)

Source: NOAA Rainfall Image, produced By: USGS-EROS Data Center. The outlook is based on NMA forecast, September 2006.  Graphics by FEWS NET.

While the rainfall withdrawal after the end of October in most meher crop-dependent areas followed its normal pattern, unseasonable widespread rains had the potential to damage cereal grains that have not yet been harvested in the north (excessive rain can knock fragile teff grains off the stalk and damage other cereals, making them unfit for human consumption).  However, the recent MoARD field-level information from northern Ethiopia indicates that damage inflicted by the current rains was insignificant in most parts.

In the crop-dependent southern areas, including Wolaita and the special woredas of Konso, Derashe and Burji of the SNNPR, the rains in October were seasonable and have fostered the development of short-cycle cereals, pulses and potatoes.  Continued seasonal rain is needed in November 2006 to allow the crops to reach maturity and produce normal yields.

In the southern pastoral areas, abundant and evenly distributed rains have fallen over the second and third dekads of October, with unusually heavy rains occurring in some locations of Somali Region.  The towns of Gode, Fik and Afder received about 70 mm of rainfall each during the last dekad of October 2006, nearly half the amount of normal precipitation the area receives during the entire short rainy season (October to December).  The rains in these pastoral areas began on time but weakened during the end of October 2006 through the second dekad of November.  The continuation of these rains through mid-December is extremely important to recharge water sources and replenishes pastures; if they fail, pasture and water conditions may not be sufficient to meet livestock and human needs until the next rainy season in March/April 2007.

According to NMA, the rain-producing systems are likely to yield rainfall for the month of November and beginning of December over pastoral areas, and dry weather conditions are anticipated for the other areas, which is favorable for the smooth flow of harvesting activity.

Market Analysis

Major cereal prices, which have been increasing during the entire year, have began to show signs of modest decline in October 2006 in most retail markets and stabilized in others around their August peak levels.  This is mainly due to the start of a meher harvest with favorable prospects, which is increasing the flow of grain into the market.  Current cereal prices, however, continue to exceed their 2001 to 2005 average levels in the Addis Ababa market and are higher than prices during the same period last year, which were also unusually high (see figures 3 and 4).

Cereal prices are expected to decline or remain stable through the ongoing harvest (October to January) but are anticipated to remain much above average levels.  These high prices at harvest time will continue to have a positive impact on farmers' incomes but will negatively affect poor farmers and pastoralists who continue to be highly dependent on the market for cereal purchases.  It should be recognized that poor consumers will be seriously affected with extended periods of high-level prices while prices of all other consumable items continue to rise in the country.  Even if the current price declines are favorable, the price level needs to be monitored closely to see if the decline continues.

Continued decreases in cereal prices over the coming months would facilitate the recently started recovery process in pastoral areas and also improve the extreme food insecurity in many chronically food insecure areas.  Such decreases in cereal prices, if further strengthened by increases in livestock prices, would also favor pastoralists through improved terms of trade.  Following improvements in animal body conditions and increases in livestock demand in pastoral areas, livestock prices are expected to increase during the coming months. The current price rise observed for camels is exceptionally high (as high as 6,000 birr per head in some markets). The decrease in maize prices is particularly reassuring as maize is a major staple food for poor households with limited access to food in the market during most of the year. 

Figure 3: Addis Ababa wholesale prices for selected staple cereals

Figure 4: Real retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2001-2005 monthly average

  
Source: Data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE).  Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia.
Notes:  (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal.   (2) One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr ? 12 US Cents.   

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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