Delayed short rains, locusts and floods threaten localized food security

The food security of eastern and southern pastoralists and southeastern marginal agricultural households is at risk due to a late start to the short-rains (October to December) season in the southeast, locusts in the northeast and floods in the eastern flood plains (Figure 1). If seasonal rains do not continue into January, or if sufficient action is not taken to mitigate the impact of the locust and flood shocks, food access could decrease more than normal for these households during the upcoming January to March dry season.

The 2007 short rains started nearly three weeks late in the short rains-dependent southeastern marginal agricultural lowlands, threatening the harvest that normally occurs in March. Seventy percent of annual crop production in the lowlands is derived from the short-rains season. As livelihood options for many of these farm households are limited to growing crops, rearing indigenous livestock and participating in migratory labor, the short-rains harvest is a key source of household food access. Although rains are now fairly widespread, the current season usually ends in December, but a successful harvest will require an uncharacteristic continuation of rains into January. Households in these areas also experienced a poor 2007 long-rains (April to June) season, and if the short rains do to continue into January, farm households in the southeast could be highly food insecure from the second quarter of 2008, when food stocks run out, until the third quarter of the same year.

Locusts have been sighted in the northeastern pastoral districts of Mandera and Moyale. They are swarming in localized areas in Mandera, and have spread from Mandera Central to Wargadud, Shimbir, Fatuma, El Wak and Kalaliyo divisions. To control the spread, the Government of Kenya’s (GoK’s) Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has pre-positioned aircraft, pesticides, jet fuel vehicle-mounted and hand-held sprayers and protective gear in both districts. The MoA has also trained key personnel and intensified publicity information campaigns on locust control measures. Some limited damage to irrigated crops and pastures has already occurred along the River Daua, although the spread was forestalled by spraying. The MoA indicates that control measures have been highly successful so far, largely due to early detection and spraying of newly hatched hoppers that are not yet fully mobile. The locusts are migrating southward toward neighboring Wajir District, and could lay more eggs if current control measures are not sustained. Such a scenario would put the short-rains crop in southeastern marginal agricultural areas at risk, exacerbating the impacts of delayed rains. If locust control efforts are insufficient, pastoralists’ access to pasture and browse through the January to March dry season in these areas would also be insufficient, decreasing increasing this group’s food security more than normal in the coming months.

Floods in Tana River District displaced farmers situated along the banks of the river, damaging crops and constraining livelihood options for an estimated 570 households from mid-November through the end of December. The floods resulted from heavy rainfall in adjacent highland cropping areas, and have decreased the food security of affected households. The Red Cross has provided non-food items for affected households along the river basin in Madogo, Bura and Galole Divisions, while the GoK is distributing food to the displaced.

The locust invasion and the floods are increasing the risk of food insecurity at a critical time for both pastoralists and lowland farmers. Pastoral recovery in northeastern and eastern districts was expected to continue, as the short rains began earlier-than-normal in these areas and have been good so far. However, consolidation of the recovery process for pastoralists will be compromised by the locust invasion if current control measures by the GoK and partners do not continue. Farmers in the southeastern lowlands are already moderately food insecure following the poor 2007 long-rains season, and if the short-rains harvest fails, interventions would be necessary to respond to the resultant high levels of food insecurity after the first quarter of 2008.

Figure 1. Rainfall anomalies, September 1 to December 10, and key areas of concern FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS/FEWS NET