FEWS NET Monthly Report for S. Sudan covering the period Dec 2006 to Jan 2007.

SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Update
January 2007

Food security is expected to remain stable for most households during this year's dry season from January to April, following harvests which started in October 2006 and continued in some areas until January 2007 and due to better environmental conditions for pasture, vegetation and water following above-normal October to December 2006 rains.  However, food security conditions are expected to deteriorate between May and August, the typical hunger season in southern Sudan.

Civil insecurity and population returns both represent threats to food security.  Civil insecurity persists in parts of Eastern Equatoria located in the Hills and Mountains Zone, parts of Unity in the Nile Sobat River Zone, and parts of Jonglei in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone.  In addition, the potential arrival of large numbers of returnees from northern Sudan for various reasons, including participation in the 2007 population census scheduled for November, could strain already stretched local capacities, sources of food and labor opportunities.

Critical events timeline

Current hazard summary

• Large-scale spontaneous returns of refugees and the internally displaced are likely from January to June 2007, in advance of the November 2007 population census.
• Food security gains made in the Western Flood Plains are likely to be reversed if large-scale population returns occur.  These will be compounded by the chronic vulnerability of some households and the impact of structural food deficits, as well as targeting problems between returnees and their hosts.
• The Eastern Flood Plains remains a concern given recurrent local conflict and cattle raiding by armed groups from Pibor County, compounded by longer-term structural food insecurity and lack of vibrant local markets.
• Deteriorating civil insecurity in the Hills and Mountains Zone continues to constrain population movements, inhibit trade flows and limit household access to food and labor markets.

Critical factors to monitor from January to June 2007

• Population and  livestock movements, and  pasture/water conditions
• Organized and informal north-south population returns
• Access to early dry season off-farm food sources, such as wild foods and fish
• Insecurity and dry season interethnic conflicts
• Trade and market activities
• Land preparation, planting and the onset of March to April rains in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains Zones and part of the Arid Zone
• Land preparation, planting and the onset of June rains in the Eastern, Western, Nile-Sobat River and Ironstone Zones and part of the Arid Zone

Food security summary

The variety of foods being consumed has increased with the onset of the dry season to include wild fruits, berries and nuts and cassava.  In the Western Flood Plains Livelihood Zone, households are consuming sorghum supplemented by groundnuts, sesame, fish and wild foods.  Milk is being consumed less as cattle are moved to grazing areas away from homesteads.  In the Eastern Flood Plains Zone, the main foods are sorghum, wild foods, fish and milk.  In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, fish and wild foods are now dominating the diet, supplemented by milk and sorghum carried over from last month's harvest.  Food varieties have also increased in the Hills and Mountains and Greenbelt zones where the second-season harvest has just been concluded.  These include sorghum, maize, sweet potatoes, cowpeas, groundnuts and, to a lesser extent, cassava.  Milk, meat and ghee supplemented by small amounts of sorghum and maize continue to dominate the food basket in the Pastoral/Arid Zone.  However, access to milk by some of the household members will reduce following the dry season onset when livestock move to distant grazing areas.

Vegetation and pasture conditions

Current vegetation and pasture conditions range between near normal and above normal.  Areas with above-normal pasture conditions include the eastern half of southern Sudan, where above-average rainfall occurred between June and December 2006.  As a result, there are adequate pastures, browse and water to sustain livestock.  However, this is not very relevant to the Ironstone Plateau and Greenbelt Livelihood zones (see Figure 1) because livestock are not a significant source of food.  However, Bor County in Nile-Sobat Zone is a potential area of concern because livestock numbers have significantly increased following the return of people previously residing in the Greenbelt's Western Equatoria State.  The increase in the livestock population could result in competition over grazing, leading to conflict.  The increased livestock population is also a target for cattle raiders.  Already there have been reports of cattle raiding by the neighboring Murle tribe of Pibor County.

Figure 1: Current concerns across various zones and states

Source: FEWS NET

Food security updates by livelihood zone

Western Flood Plains Zone
In the north of the zone, the main harvest of sorghum, groundnuts and sesame, concluded in October and November, continues to sustain households as the dry season from January to April enters its second month.  Above-normal October to December rains have sustained improved fish access, livestock, pasture and vegetation and water conditions.

In the south of the zone, the main harvest was completed in December and ranged from fair to good.  As in the northern parts of this zone, off-farm dry season food sources such as fish and wild foods are expected to perform well.  Nonetheless, structural food deficits that typically occur during the May to August hunger season are expected.
 
Meanwhile, a meningitis outbreak has recently erupted in Warrap State and left about 17 people dead.  The outbreak seriously threatens on-going dry season population and animal movements.  A similar outbreak occurred last year, but mostly affected the Aweil counties situated further north.  The disease commonly occurs during the dry season.  Currently, joint efforts by United Nations World Health Organization and Government of Southern Sudan's Health Ministry in Warrap are under way to vaccinate up to 50,000 people.  Drugs for the treatment of already-infected persons are available.

Eastern Flood Plains Zone
As in the Western Flood Plains, the dry season has set in, triggering households to move to dry-season grazing and water areas.  This year's movement was slightly delayed because of flooding, but this was ultimately conducive to pasture growth and water availability.  Typically, people in this zone start moving to dry-season grazing and water areas as early as December.  Meanwhile, access to off-farm food sources such as fish and wild foods has improved and is better than at same time last year.  As in the Western Flood Plains, structural food deficits are expected.

Currently, the biggest threat to food security in this zone is persistent inter-tribal cattle raiding and conflict.  The potential for conflict is higher following the disarmament of some civilians but not others.  It is essential to monitor the impacts of last year's disarmament activities, as they have increased the vulnerability of disarmed communities to attack.  The communities most vulnerable to potential cattle raiding are in Diror, Wiror, Nyriol and Akobo counties, by Murle pastoralists in the neighboring Pibor County.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone
Food security conditions remain stable in most parts of this zone.  However, civil insecurity persists in localized areas and has impacted dry-season movements, especially in Bor County where unseasonal livestock movements occurred at the end of 2006 despite good pasture and water conditions following cattle raiding by the neighboring Murle tribe of Pibor County.  These attacks displaced about 3,500 people.  The Murle are predominantly pastoral and are known for cattle raiding.  The attack is not surprising because people with large herds of cattle returned from Western Equatoria State in Greenbelt Zone in 2006.  In addition to attacks by the Murle, concern is now increasing over potential lack of pasture towards the end of the dry season, attributed to a significant increase in the livestock population.  In these circumstances, pasture shortages could quickly lead to increased resource-based conflict.

Meanwhile, households continue to rely on last year's harvest, fish and wild plants, whose performance is normal.  These food sources will likely be sufficient to compensate for crop shortfalls caused by floods in some areas last year. 

In contrast, fighting between Sudan People's Liberation Army and Sudan Armed Forces from November 28 to December 1 in Malakal town continues to impact food security.  This has been more evident with the arrival of an unknown number of households in Ayod County fleeing affected areas of Malakal.  The fighting is reported to have left 150 people dead and up to 500 people injured.  The impact of the fighting and resulting tensions on dry-season activities such as labor migration and fish trade and access to markets has not been fully established. 

Continuing civil insecurity in Khorfulus County and persistent tensions in the neighboring Zeraf Island remain a serious concern.  Both intermittent and continuous conflict have persisted, negatively impacting trade and access to markets.  Some households rely heavily on markets to access food in this zone. 

Hills and Mountains Zone
The second-season harvest has concluded in some areas in the Hills and Mountains Zone.  Crops harvested include sorghum, sesame, cowpeas and groundnuts.  As a result, most households are expected to be food secure until May or July 2007.
 
However, food security is threatened by increased civil insecurity caused by unknown armed groups and Uganda's Lords Resistant Army (LRA).  The result has been tight screening of movement across the Uganda-Sudan border.  More than ten attacks have been reported since January 2, and an unconfirmed number of people (tentative figures indicate a total of 35) have been killed.  The increase in attacks at the same time that peace talks have stalled has revived fears expressed in November 2006 that a breakdown of the peace talks between the LRA and the Ugandan Government could result in significant conflict in this zone.  Already, increased conflict has limited trade and movement in the area encompassed by Juba, Yei and Torit towns, as well as the neighboring Greenbelt Zone.  Attacks are not only targeting people, but also vehicles, including 23 attacks on large trucks since August 2006.  The latest truck attack occurred on January 19.  The truck was ambushed then burnt while ferrying people and supplies to southern Sudan.

Ironstone Plateau Zone
Households continue to rely on the main harvest of sorghum, groundnuts, millet, sesame and green grains that were harvested in November in the Ironstone Plateau Livelihood Zone.  Though crop performance was mixed, most areas had a fair harvest. 

In December, there was concern in Mvolo County over renewed threats by the neighboring Dinka tribe to invade the area, where conflict had already occurred earlier in the year that displaced about 4,000 people and severely disrupted last year's cultivation.  Though the current status of these threats is not clear, if conflict reoccurs this year it will limit agricultural production.  

Greenbelt Zone
In the Greenbelt Zone, food security has improved since the onset of the second-season harvest that is now being concluded.  This surplus crop-producing area has the potential to supply agricultural markets in neighboring Western Flood Plains Zone and parts of the Hills and Mountains and Ironstone Plateau zones.

Meanwhile, refugees from this zone are now beginning to return from the neighboring Central African Republic (CAR).  Some are being officially repatriated by United Nations High Commission for Refugees, while others are returning by foot.   Though these households will have to start new settlements in their original homes, they are only expected to be food insecure until July 2007 when the first season harvest is due.  However, this will only be the case if they are able to cultivate during the March to July season.  In the meantime, these households are looking forward to temporarily receiving support from relatives and possibly selling labor to secure food until the July harvest is ready.  Though host communities in this zone are capable of supporting returning households in terms of food access, it is critical for food security and other related agencies to help ensure that returning households can participate in the upcoming season that begins in March.

As in the Hills and Mountains Zone, fear of potentially increased LRA attacks persist.  LRA attacks seriously affected this zone in 2005 and were accompanied by looting, destruction of assets and the abduction, torture and killing of people.  As a result, the 2005 second agricultural season (September to December) was affected as crop harvests were taken by LRA (mostly sweet potatoes, groundnuts and maize).  LRA also looted livestock and poultry. 

Special Focus: New currency for southern Sudan, and increased trade with Uganda and Kenya

A new currency was introduced in Sudan on January 9, 2007.  The new currency, called the pound, was established as a result of the north-south peace agreement signed in January 2005 and replaces the dinar, which was introduced in 1992.  The new currency will be used in both northern and southern Sudan.  The dinar was not commonly accepted in the south until the year 2005.  Instead, an old version of the pound that originally existed before the dinar was being used alongside other currencies such as the US dollar, Kenyan and Ugandan shillings, and Ethiopian birr.  The dinar will remain in circulation, along with the pound, for an interim period of six months and then will be withdrawn by June 30, 2007.

Table 1: Official conversion rates to new Sudanese Pound

A high-ranking delegation from Sudan's central bank is currently touring all ten states of southern Sudan to introduce the new Sudanese currency.  Stations are being established where people can exchange their old currency for new currency in each state.  So far, Cueibet, Yirol and Akot Counties have been appointed as exchange stations in the Lakes State. 
 
The establishment of a new and common currency is expected to have a positive impact on the collection of market data and monitoring of markets, especially in southern Sudan, which has been problematic in the past due to the use of different currencies in different markets and states.  This applies to all market data that was collected starting 1995 to 2006.

Meanwhile, Uganda's trade with southern Sudan is expected to double this year when the country opens a trade center in Juba.  The Uganda trade centre will promote Ugandan exports in the Sudanese market and spur investment.  The move comes as informal business between the two countries is experiencing a boom, but with no proper channels or sites from which to operate.  Over 20 hectares of land have been acquired for the construction of the center in Juba, which will then be let out to business people.  All Ugandan exports to Sudan will be found at the center.  The two countries have signed a co-operation agreement and hope the trade center will help organize trade and double the volume.

The establishment of the Uganda Trade Center is a critical step for increasing trade.  The Sudan-Uganda trade started re-establishing in 1997 after the main transit town of Yei came under the control of Sudan People's Liberation Army, making it safe for traders.  Trade rapidly increased after the January 2005 peace agreement.  Currently, an estimated 100 trucks travel from Uganda to southern Sudan daily carrying food, construction materials, groceries and beverages from Uganda and Kenya, yet no formal monitoring or documentation of these trade flows is being carried out.

Uganda's exports to Sudan include coffee, tea, fish, beverages, human resource and agricultural produce, while Kenya's basic export to Sudan is tea.  Both Kenya and Uganda have opened consulates in Juba.  Uganda and Sudan revived their trade relations last year and signed a joint trade agreement.  Previously, relations between the two countries had deteriorated with accusations that each was supporting rebels in the other's country.

Customs checks at border points will soon be strengthened to collate correct figures of the volume of trade.  This is particularly significant for monitoring and understanding cross-border trade and market linkages between the countries.

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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