Humanitarian situation worsens in the south; poor deyr rains may exacerbate food insecurity

Figure 1. Post-gu 2007 projected food security conditions through December 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FSAU

The humanitarian situation in southern Somalia, especially in the Shebelle Valley, Hiran and Mogadishu regions where households are already extremely food insecure, continues to deteriorate. The worst gu season in thirteen years, disruptions in trade, displacement, high inflation and continued civil insecurity are drastically reducing household food access, and will result in increased humanitarian needs in southern Somalia through at least December 2007. Poor October to December deyr rains could cause pasture shortages and a second failed crop season, potentially leading to pre-famine conditions in early 2008.

The prices of imported commodities and staple foods continue to increase in the south due to the failure of the August gu harvest and conflict-related disruptions of import activities. The prices of maize in Merka, Beletweyne and Jowhar have increased by 95, 91 and 56 percent respectively in the last eight months, and are 32 to 63 percent greater than last year and 27 to 53 percent higher than the five-year average at this time of year. In Beletweyne, the prices of rice, sugar and petrol increased by 77, 13 and 61 percent respectively since January, and similar increases have occurred in other markets in the south. There has not been a proportional increase in wages, causing terms of trade between daily labor wages and maize in Shabelle Valley to drop by an average of 61 percent since early 2007 (from 13kg in January to 5kg in August).

As a result, internally displaced communities, the urban poor and part of the drought-affected rural communities, including pastoral communities in central regions, face reduced food access and are extremely food insecure. Poor food diversity due to the lack of income have driven malnutrition rates in the Middle and Lower Shebelle regions above emergency thresholds for wasting, at 17 percent global acute malnutrition and 4 percent severe acute malnutrition. Health conditions are further deteriorating following the recent outbreak of acute watery diarrhea.

The crisis will only be ameliorated by improved civil security and a normal deyr (October to December) rainy season, which may improve crop production and rangeland conditions. However, drier-than-normal conditions are expected in the coming months in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with a likelihood of normal to below-normal deyr rains in October and November in much of Somalia. If the forecast hold true, southern and central Somalia may experience a second season of crop failure and pasture and water shortages. As the region has not recovered significantly from the effects of flooding, drought and civil insecurity over the past several years, a poor deyr season could push the region into an even more severe crisis with possible pre-famine conditions emerging, especially in areas already facing a humanitarian emergency (Figure 1). In a worst-case scenario, more than two million people could require humanitarian assistance by early 2008, and a strategy needs to be put in place to prevent pre-famine conditions. Given the severity of the humanitarian situation in Somalia at this time, it is imperative that the recent multi-agency Consolidated Appeal Process (CAP) appeal be funded quickly.