Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS

Food access is limited for poor Nicaraguan families, especially agricultural day laborers, a normal condition during the annual hunger season from April to August. However, food insecurity this year is more severe than normal for 23,000 poor rural households that were affected by harvest losses in early 2007 and by the currently high staple cereals prices, especially of maize (primarily located in orange areas in Figure 1).

With the beginning of the 2007/08 agricultural cycle, one of the most important activities in terms of food security, the demand for unskilled labor is expected to increase in June, which will allow poor households to increase their income and have better access to food. As good production is expected as a result of favorable rainfall forecasts, a decrease in food prices is expected after the primera harvest in August, improving household access to food.

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Severe hunger season

Currently, poor rural households throughout the country face a lack of staple cereals reserves, limited opportunities to generate income and increases in food prices, as is normal during the annual April to August hunger season. In response to this situation, the poorest families, especially landless rural households, have reduced the number of meals and the quantity of food consumed, or have otherwise altered their food consumption patterns. Families with adequate financial means have migrated to cities or to other countries such as El Salvador and Costa Rica in search of jobs.

This year, the hunger season has been more severe than normal due to harvest losses in early 2007 that have reduced food reserves more than normal, reported below normal demand for unskilled labor and an above-average increase in the prices of staple cereals, especially of maize, which is the basis of Nicaraguan diet. As a result, 23,000 poor households are highly food insecure.

Figure 2. Total staple cereal production per capita FULL-SIZE IMAGE Scale indicates the production of basic grains in quintales per capita Source: WFP VAM

With the beginning of the rainy season (see Agro-climatology section below), agricultural activities have begun. These activities provide jobs for two million people, or 38 percent of the economically active population, and are one of the most important activities in the country in terms of food security. Most poor households will earn some income from the sale of unskilled labor in the agricultural and dairy sectors, enabling them to at least cover their basic food needs, even though food is currently scarce.

More than 200,000 producers will grow staple cereal crops in the 2007/08 primera production cycle, in an area of 800,000 hectares (similar to previous years), and thus will need to hire unskilled labor. Figure 2 shows the zones with high per-capita production (lighter colors), and thus with more intensive production and a higher demand for labor. Families in these zones who are presently food insecure will have a means to obtain some income to purchase food. More than half of the municipalities in the Autonomous Regions and the Vieja Frontera Agricola, and the San Francisco Libre, Santo Tomas del Norte, Terrabona, San Nicolás, Cinco Pinos and Las Sabanas municipalities in the dry zone, have such high productivity.

In the rest of the country (darker shades in Figure 2), most production is subsistence based, which does not generate much demand for unskilled labor, and an improvement in food security in these areas is not expected until the August harvest. The country’s northwestern areas are the zones with current high levels of food insecurity (Figure 1).

The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry (MAGFOR) began distributing seeds and food at the end of April as food-for-training and food-for-work in these low productivity and highly food insecure zones. The assistance is enabling poor households in these areas to begin staple cereal production to support a harvest in August, and is also supporting their current food needs.

The abnormal prices and price trends of staple cereals are also impacting food security. Prices of maize, beans and rice are above normal (Figure 3) and increasing. This is especially true for maize due to the high international market prices and the shortages caused by the losses in the last harvest. These high prices will continue to impact food security, especially of day-laborer households that depend highly on the purchase of food, as such prices will limit their food access despite the income generated by their sale of labor in agricultural activities.

Figure 3. Staple cereal consumer prices, June 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Prepared by MFEWS with data from the Prices and Markets Information System, MAGFOR

Agro-climatology

Rains started in most of the country during May (see blue and green shades in Figure 4), which means that most regions are in the initial planting stage.

According to the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER) forecast, June rains will likely be irregular in terms of spatial and temporal distribution, with values slightly below the historical norm (Figure 5). However, the NOAA Atlantic storms forecast indicates that, according to the number of storms that could occur this year, there is a 75 percent chance of good rain conditions in the coming months. However, this depends on how strong the La Niña phenomenon will be, and that Atlantic Ocean surface temperature remains warmer than normal.

According to preliminary reports submitted by MAGFOR departmental delegations, rainfall levels have provided adequate humidity conditions for agricultural activities, and will intensify during the first dekad of June.

Figure 4: Start of rains for the first harvest season, third dekad, May 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS/USGS

Figure 5. Rainfall averages and forecasts for June 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS, with data from INETER