Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Most-likely scenario: estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Worst-case scenario: estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Current food and nutrition security conditions are normal as a result of the marketing of the primera harvest in the southern coast and in the east, which will stabilize the price of maize and improve food availability throughout the country, and due to the income generated from agricultural labor at the beginning of 2007. Rainfall is normal or above normal in most of the country. However, 1,837,000 people face chronic food insecurity.

• In the most-likely scenario for the fourth quarter of 2007, above-normal rainfall is expected through October. As a result of these rains, the postrera planting will start in October, and the demand for unskilled labor for the coffee and sugarcane harvests will be within the normal range. Localized food security problems are expected due to the normal impacts of rainfall during the season, although though household food access will be good in most of the country. The number of food insecure people will remain the same in this scenario.

• The worst-case scenario from October to December will result from excessive rainfall, the impact of a tropical storm or hurricane and frosts in the highlands, which will cause crop losses and reduced the demand for unskilled labor. In addition, maize prices could increase further due to high demand from neighboring countries. Household food access will decrease, especially in the west and the highlands, and the number of people that will face food insecurity will increase to 1,900,000.

Current food security conditions, July to September 2007

Food and nutrition security is currently stable, despite the fact that households in various parts of the country are at the end of the annual hunger season. Staple cereal reserves from the last harvest, the harvest of potatoes in the highlands and the income generated during the coffee and sugarcane harvests at the beginning of 2007 have enabled the poorest households to sustain themselves through the hunger season and cope with the high price of maize in the country. However, nearly 1,837,000 people are moderately or highly food insecure, primarily because of structural poverty and insufficient access to food.

The rainiest season of the year begins in August/September, and heavy rains are likely during these months. However, the primera production is doing well, and the primera harvest has started in June and July in the southern coast and in mid-August in the rest of the country (except in the highlands, where the main harvest starts in October/November). The primera rainy season has been favorable for production, and the harvest is expected to be good. This will allow for an increase in the availability of staple cereals in August and September that will stabilize the price of maize, which has increased in the last several months as a result of a high demand on the international market for maize as an input for the ethanol production and due to price speculation on the national market. The primera harvest will not come until October/November in the highlands, and the hunger season will extend until then in that part of the country.

Most-likely food security scenario, October to December, 2007

Food and nutrition security is expected to be normal between October and December. In the most-likely scenario, rains will be above normal in the second rainy period (from August to November), according to forecasts provided by the Climate Forum. Floods and landslides are expected throughout the country as a result, which are normal occurrences during this time. With the rains, the postrera planting will begin in October. In the agro-export sector, coffee and sugarcane harvests will also start in October. Heavy rains could significantly damage production in localized areas, but will also benefit farming in most of the country.

Food availability will continue to improve due to the primera harvest that began in June/July. Additionally, the main harvest will begin in October/November in the highlands and the postrera harvest will begin in mid-December in the rest of the country, which will further increase food availability in markets as well as in household stocks.

The demand for unskilled labor for the coffee and sugarcane harvests is expected to be within the normal range. These activities enable poor households to generate income to purchase food and save for next year’s hunger season. The price of maize is expected to remain stable due to the good primera harvests and the postrera harvests, combined with border controls to prevent a massive export of domestic maize caused by high demand from neighboring countries.

Local food insecurity could increase during this quarter in areas where rains, floods and landslides are particularly strong. However, the good food availability and sufficient income from labor in agricultural activities will mitigate food insecurity in most of the country. The total number of food insecure people will remain the same as in the present situation.

Worst-case food security scenario, October to December 2007

In the worst case-scenario, food and nutrition security will be negatively impacted by a combination of climatic and market factors during from October to December. Rains could be very strong and may include a tropical storm or hurricane. In the highlands, frosts could harm susceptible crops such as vegetables. Furthermore, a high demand for maize in neighboring countries could lead to substantial exports of Guatemalan maize, thereby decreasing national availability and increasing the market price of maize.

An excessively rainy season would have the following impacts:

• In the lowlands of the country, overflows from rivers could destroy the postrera harvest that comes in December and normally yields about 40 percent of annual national maize production.
• In the highlands, the excess of water and landslides would cause crop losses, particularly of maize that will be ready to be harvested in October and November. Additionally, excessive rainfall would damage vegetables, the harvest of which is an important source of demand for unskilled labor.
• Damages to road infrastructure, which will hinder the population’s access to markets and to health services.

These impacts would be particularly severe in the west, where the poorest households that were affected by tropical storm Stan in October 2005 are located. These households have not yet recovered from the impacts of Stan, and are particularly vulnerable to further storms.

The population’s health will also be affected by the low temperatures and floods. An increased number of respiratory infections and diarrhea outbreaks caused by water pollution would occur. These have a direct impact on nutrition, and force poor households to spend more income on health expenditures, at the expense of resources that would be otherwise dedicated to food.

Access to food for the poorest households will decline as a result of the increase in food prices. The demand for unskilled labor in agro-industry (including the production and harvest of sugarcane, banana, coffee, African Palm and cardamom) will decrease, thereby reducing the income of the poorest population that depends upon the sale of their labor in these activities. This will deteriorate these households’ ability to cope during next year’s hunger season from April to August/September. Furthermore, landslides and floods may isolate some communities from markets and health services.

The export of maize from Guatemala, due to its high demand in neighboring countries, will increase its price. The current maize crop in Honduras and El Salvador is in jeopardy, which will generate a greater demand for the staple cereal in those countries. This, added to the demand from Mexico, could reduce the availability of maize in Guatemala and cause another surge of price increases. This could have a strong negative impact on the national availability of maize, although the likelihood of this is minimal, even in the worst-case scenario.

In the short term, the combination of these impacts will result in an increase in rates of morbidity and malnutrition among the poor population, and will cause food and nutrition insecurity to increase, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly and pregnant and lactating women. In the mid and long term, the poor population’s livelihoods will be harmed due to the strategies employed by households to cope with the situation, such as sale of their assets and migration to urban areas. The number of people facing food insecurity will increase to 1,900,000 in this scenario, and the food insecurity level of these households will also deteriorate from their current state.