FEWS NET Monthly Report for Nicaragua covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

Summary

As a result of the rainfall deficit, poor families may experience a scarcity of staple cereals in the coming year.  Eleven percent of the sowed area has been lost for the postrera harvest at the national level.  Poor households, which are dependent on the production of these foods throughout the country, could experience some food deficit as they grow crops in poor lands with low technical levels and are totally dependent on the rainy season to produce their harvests.  The greatest impact of these losses and the decrease in production is expected to be on the food security of the poorest families from February to May, which coincides with the lack of a harvest and with a decrease in the demand for labor in the coffee and sugar cane plantations where most of the population is employed.  Madriz, Nueva Segovia and Matagalpa are the departments that would be affected the most.

Seasonal Calendar

Impact of the postrera harvest's losses on food security

The food security situation may worsen if the postrera harvest does not result as expected.  To date, 11 per cent of the sowed area has been lost at the national level.  This is a clear indication that for the next quarter ? the harvest period? at a household level, families will depend on the purchase of food.  In the next quarter, resources generated from the sale of labor in the coffee and sugar cane sectors will ensure at least some income to buy food.  But, as of February, the situation could worsen due to the coincidence of the months of low labor demand and decrease or shortage of production reserves from the existing harvest.  The situation is aggravated due to the bad harvest.

The impact of harvest losses on food security will probably have a repercussion from December 2006 to May 2007.  Most poor producers have already sold most of their bean production harvested during the primera season, anticipating an excellent postrera harvest, which is usually the best harvest (even though 70 percent of all poor producers are self-sufficient in food production, but less than 40 percent of bean producers are).  In the following months they will have to buy these products again, usually at higher prices than their selling price, demonstrated by the price increases seen in staple cereals have shown since August, especially beans.

Poor families in zones that are likely to be affected are mainly day laborers that rent land from their employers (1 or 2 manzanas) to grow maize and beans to provide for their own needs.  Therefore, the rainfall deficit not only puts their own consumption at risk, but also generates a debt with landlords that may force some households to sell some assets to meet their obligations and prepare for the next crop.  In addition to the limited access to land, families will require that more of its members go to work, including children older than 10 years of age, to improve their income, which may also result in an increase in school absenteeism for the next year.

Agro-climatic conditions and current hazards

Light rains are expected with the passing of cold fronts in November in the western Pacific zone, improving productive conditions for farmers who sowed late.  Moderate precipitation and a slight decrease of average air temperature are also expected in the Atlantic Autonomous Regions, which could prevent crop withering.

The departments of Nueva Segovia, Madriz, Esteli, Boaco, Chontales and Rivas report below-normal conditions according to the index of actual soil water (see light shades of purple and brown in map 1) and, according to the level of accumulated water for the same date of the previous year (orange shades in map 2), this situation may be affecting the postrera crop's development.

The main hazard continues to be the reduction of rain due to the influence of the El Ni?o phenomenon and its impact on agriculture production.

Map 1: Index of soil-water for the period November 11-20

Source: MFEWS

Map 2: Anomaly of the hydrological balance index compared to the previous year for November 11-20

Source: MFEWS

Staple cereal prices

The price of rice remains stable since October (see table 1).  The marketing of the primera harvest is influencing the stability of the maize price which is the same as the price in September due to its availability in local markets; therefore it is probable that its price will remain stable at through the end of the year.  Last month's increase in the price of beans continues, due to the loss of crops and the low supply in national markets, as a result of a decreased supply of grain in the markets.  Beans are an important food for many households, and the price increase may force some to substitute it and/or increase their rice or maize consumption.

The losses in the postrera harvest could result in an eventual scarcity of staple cereals ?beans and maize?during the coming months. This can produce a significant increase in the prices for staple cereals, especially for beans as mentioned above.

Table 1: Retail staple cereal prices ? national average

Source: SIPMA MAGFOR

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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