The price of maize continues to increase, but has not yet had a direct impact on food and nutrition security. In the short term, the households most vulnerable to this price increase still have food reserves or income that provides them with sufficient access to food.

The annual hunger season will start in May or June and it is expected to last until August or September. This period is normally difficult for poor households, even when there is no abnormal increase in the price of basic foods. The number of people facing food insecurity is not expected to increase during this period, but the level of food insecurity will increase, especially in poor households that depend on the market to purchase their food. Another threat to food and nutrition security is the possible delay of the rainy season, especially in the dry corridor, which would extend the hunger season and cause losses in the primera harvest.

Seasonal calendar

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Food and nutrition security

Food and nutrition security is stable. The groups most vulnerable to food and nutrition insecurity still have reserves from the postrera and apante crops and income from the sale of their labor in cutting coffee and harvesting sugar cane. The hunger season will start in May, and food insecurity will increase for the 1.8 million people that face chronic food insecurity. The price of maize remains high, intensifying food scarcity.

The price of maize per quintal (45 kg) is more than 130 quetzals in the eastern and highland markets, which is 30 percent higher than the normal price at this time of the year. This trend is a result of the high demand for maize in the international market for ethanol fuel production in the United States. The impacts of the boom of biofuel production are intensified by the increase in the price of oil, which has had a steady upward trend since the beginning of 2002. There is a worldwide concern regarding the threat to food security posed by the use of crops for biofuel production, which is replacing the production of corn for human consumption. Given the food economy of poor Guatemalan households, this trend is also a concern nationally, as maize is the staple food in Guatemala with few possibilities for substitution.

Figure 1. Livelihood zones   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MFEWS 2005:

Nevertheless, the price of maize has not yet caused problems to food and nutrition security, due to several factors. Subsistence producers did not sell their postrera and apante crops, and will have reserves until May or June. Additionally, there was good demand for labor in the sugar cane harvesting (especially in livelihood zone 12; see Figure 1) and coffee cutting season (zone 11) at the end of 2006 and beginning of 2007. In the highland area, there is demand for labor in the vegetable farms, which were not affected by the cold fronts experienced in February and March.

The hunger season is expected to start in May when food reserves are depleted and the seasonal employment ends. The season will last until August or September, when the primera harvest and the demand for labor begin. This year's hunger season will be mainly affected by the high price of maize, and potentially by an extended dry season. The number of food insecure people will not increase if the rains for the primera start on time in May, but food insecurity will increase for the 1.8 million people that currently face food insecurity and are highly dependent on the purchase of food, especially in livelihood zones 5 and 8.

The price of maize in Guatemala’s central market is above average for this time of the year (Figure 2). Rice, which is also an important staple cereal in the Guatemalan diet, shows the same trend, which makes it necessary to monitor the impact of this increase together with that of maize. The increase is likely caused by the international price of rice. The price of beans remains within normal ranges.

Figure 2. Nominal staple cereal consumer prices, March 12, 2007, La Terminal market, Guatemala City, in quetzals per pound
Maize	Beans	Rice
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Blue: 2002 to 2006 average. Source: Prepared by MFEWS with data from MAGA, UOR and UPIE/Area of Information. Exchange rate: US$ 1 = Q7.68, March 12, 2007

Weather

During this time of the year, rainfall is limited to the northern zone and Caribbean areas of the country, where rains have been below normal compared to the historic average. This situation does not present a problem yet, but could be an indicator of the irregular start of the rainy season that is still a threat for the agriculture and cattle sectors and to food security. This is particularly of concern in the dry corridor (red zone in Figure 3), where subsistence farmers only have one harvest of maize and beans per year, and where water is normally scarce and is further aggravated by the climatic changes and population growth.

Figure 3. Threat of drought in Guatemala FULL-SIZE IMAGE Green: low threat of drought; yellow: medium; red: high threat. Source MAGA 2003:

An irregular and late start of the rainy season will have the following implications:

• Low yields and/or crop losses;
• Increase in production costs;
• Extension of the hunger season, which normally ends by August-September;
• Reduction in the demand for unskilled labor in agriculture; and
• Scarcity and contamination of water for human consumption.

The combination of these factors will influence the food security of this zone’s population, which is among the poorest and most vulnerable in the country. To mitigate this situation in the short and long term, it is advisable to strengthen and support initiatives of surface water catchments and to drill artisan wells in a coordinated and integrated manner, together with national strategies addressing rural development and food and nutrition security.