The main harvest continues in Mozambique. Production is expected to be average to above average in the north and central, but below average in south as a result of significant seasonal rainfall deficits. As a result, households in the south face a high risk of food insecurity in the coming months. Food prices are likely to increase due to low and decreasing food stocks. Food security has not yet become critical, though; most households still have access to food traded from surplus-producing areas in central and northern Mozambique, and there are no indications that households are employing unusual coping strategies.

The second production season is progressing well in southern and central regions. Above-average rains in late March and early April created good conditions for crop growth, and maize, beans and vegetables are developing well, especially in the lowlands where moisture content is adequate. A good second-season harvest in July and August would provide an important source of food and income for households at risk of food insecurity in the south. If rainfall is insufficient for continued crop growth in June, however, a below-average second-season harvest could exacerbate the production losses in the main season and cause household food security to deteriorate even further starting in July.

Seasonal timeline and critical events

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Food security overview

As the main harvest nears completion, food availability has increased in central and northern Mozambique, and maize prices are decreasing seasonably. Households are able to access sufficient amounts of food to meet their requirements. Throughout the 2007/08 marketing year until the next harvest in April 2008, the majority of households in these areas will remain generally food secure, as average to above-average harvests will ensure adequate availability and prices will likely remain affordable.

Conversely, poor households in drought-affected areas of southern Mozambique will likely face food shortages in the next two to three months. The main maize harvest this year is below average in these areas, although cassava production will provide an alternate source of food to temporarily offset the maize production deficits. Prices of maize and other foods are high and tending to increase, although it is too early in the marketing season to tell whether this represents a short-term increase in prices or the beginning of a sustained price increase that could continue until supply increases significantly. The above-normal prices will limit household food access, especially as income-generating opportunities in these areas are generally limited to the sale of surplus crop production, which is below average this season. However, food is being imported from the surplus-producing central and northern regions, and households are still able to access sufficient food without resorting to unusual coping strategies.

Second-season production in the south may improve household food access starting in July, if rainfall in June is sufficient to support the final stages of crop growth. If conditions are drier than normal, the second-season harvest yields could be below average as well, extending the risk of food insecurity and possibly causing an early start to the hunger season that normally begins in October.

In 39 districts severely affected by drought, floods and cyclones in the past rainy season, vulnerability assessment teams have completed field work to assess levels of household food insecurity. The group is currently analyzing how the households are coping, and will project upcoming food security conditions. Results are expected by the end of June.

Second-season rains and production prospects

The second production season is progressing well. The main rainy season extended late into late March and early April, providing sufficient moisture for good second-season maize, bean and vegetable growth. Second-season production only contributes between 15 and 30 percent of annual national production, but it can make a substantial contribution to food production and household income in lowland areas of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, Sofala, Tete and Manica provinces.

In much of the southern and central areas where a second agricultural season is possible, rainfall levels have been progressively declining but near average. In early April, normal to above-normal rains fell over much of the south and parts of central Mozambique (Figure 1), followed by normal rainfall in subsequent dekads. The actual rainfall levels have been declining since mid-April, consistent with this period known as the dry-cold season or winter that normally runs from April to September. This season is normally characterized by little to no rainfall and low temperatures and evaporation rates, but the above-normal rains that occurred in early April have created favorable conditions for second-season planting.

Given the poor main-season crop production in southern Mozambique, a good second-season harvest in July and August could provide an important source of food to improve household food security. Income from second-season vegetable sales may also provide an important boost to household food security. If the second season is poor as well, though, it could exacerbate the already high food prices and cause household food security to deteriorate further. Thus far the season is progressing satisfactorily due to the sufficient dewfall and relatively low temperatures, but the most water-dependant stage of crop development is coming in June, as rainfall levels continue to decrease. Seed availability is also a crucial factor that can impact second-season production, but the input trade fairs organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and its partners have prevented seed availability from being a significant limiting factor.

Figure 1. Rainfall estimates as compared to normal, based on satellite imagery
1-10 April	11-20 April	21-30 April	1-10 May	11-20 May
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Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Maize prices decreasing in north and center; unseasonably stable in south

In northern and central regions, the prices of food commodities, including maize, groundnuts, beans and sweet potatoes, are decreasing seasonably. In Nampula and Beira, reference markets for the northern and central regions respectively, weekly maize prices have been decreasing since late March in anticipation of the above-average production in the recent harvest (Figure 2). Markets in central and northern areas are primarily supplied by local production.

Figure 2. Weekly retail maize prices in reference markets, in meticais per kg

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Data source: SIMA

In the south, however, maize prices are not declining seasonably. In Maputo and Chókwe (an important market that households and wholesalers depend on in northern and interior Gaza Province), prices have remained steady in April and May, when prices usually decrease with the onset of the harvest. The non-decreasing maize prices in the south reflect a higher than normal demand for maize, which results from the below-average local maize production following long dry spells during much of the 2006/07 agriculture season.

Currently, much of the available maize in southern markets is from surplus-producing areas of central and northern regions, and the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA) indicates that maize flows from surplus zones to all but the most isolated and remote markets in the south have remained strong since the onset of the harvest. The level of maize flows from the productive areas into the southern markets will determine the variability of maize prices throughout this marketing year until the next main harvest in April 2008. Based on the expected poor 2006/07 harvest, prices in the south are expected to decrease less than average this season and to start increasing earlier than normal. Prices usually begin to rise again in September, but this year they may begin to rise as early as July.