FEWS NET Monthly Report for Mali covering the period Aug 2006 to Sep 2006.

MALI Monthly Food Security Update SEPTEMBER 2006

ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY

Good outlook for the 2006/07 agricultural season

Summary and implications

In general, grain prices on retail markets in regional capitals around the country are still holding steady.  Price levels are down from last year and running below the five-year average for the same time of year.  However, preparations for the upcoming month-long celebration of Ramadan have caused the price of millet, which is consumed in large quantities during this period, to inch upwards. 

There is cause for optimism after the troubled start-of-season.  Climatic conditions have normalized and the harvest outcome hinges on the timing of the end of the rainy season.  On the whole, planting rates as of the end of August were up from the same time last year and fields and crops are generally looking good.

Conditions in stock-raising areas (pasture resources and watering holes) are positive in the wake of recent rainfall.  Satellite imagery of the condition of vegetation as of September 10th of this year shows increasingly thick vegetation into the southern part of the country's northern regions.  For the most part, the vegetation front has crossed the Mauritanian border into the northwestern reaches of the country. 

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Hazards summary

• Harvest prospects for the current growing season are good, despite small lags in the start-of-season due to erratic rainfall early in the season (in June).
• The length of the rainy season will be a major determining factor in the outcome of the growing season. 

Food security outlook for 2005/06

The nationwide household food security situation is still satisfactory.  Even in the midst of the lean period, markets have ample grain supplies.  Grain prices are holding relatively steady and, on the whole, are running below the five-year average.  Moreover, the availability of recently harvested crops in general and maize crops in particular is further strengthening the food situation in farming areas. 

The levels of this year's household and community grain reserves are more than adequate.  The government, its development partners and/or communities themselves have built up large village-level reserves through the establishment and reinforcement of grain banks around the country.

The availability of milk production in predominately pastoral livelihood zones is bolstering the food situation of area households.

Millet prices inch upwards in anticipation of the month-long celebration of Ramadan

Grain markets are still reporting adequate supplies.  There are also numerous village-level grain reserves being drawn on by communities around the country, which is reducing pressure on local markets. 

However, the month of September has been marked by preparations for the month-long celebration of Ramadan (a Muslim fasting period), which falls in October this year.  This period is characterized by stepped-up grain consumption resulting in heavy demand for grain in general and millet in particular. 

Consumer price levels for millet inched upwards between August and September on markets around the country, except in S?gou and Timbuktu where prices came down slightly.  On the whole, prices are down from last year and are running below the five-year average for the same time of year (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Trends in average millet prices on markets in regional capitals (2005, 2006 and average for 2001-2005)
 
Graphic by FEWS NET Mali; Source of data: OMA (Agricultural Market Observatory)

Moreover, since the month of June, farm-gate prices for locally grown rice from private mills ("riz DP") have been running behind last year's figures, although prices are above average for the last five years.

In line with trends in farm-gate prices, consumer prices for rice from private mills were also running below last year's figures between May and September.  In contrast, they have been well above the five-year average since the beginning of the year.

September prices for rice on the S?gou market, in one of the country's major rice-growing areas, were down 21% from last year but 6% above the five-year average for the same time of year (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Trends in average consumer prices for rice on the S?gou market (2005, 2006 and average for 2001-2005)

Graphic by FEWS NET Mali; Source of data: OMA (Agricultural Market Observatory)

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

A look at the current state of pasture production shows adequate new vegetative growth in all major agropastoral areas of the country in the wake of recent rainfall.

There is more and more new grass growth in "bourgou" grassland areas on floodplain pasturelands in the Mopti, Timbuktu and Gao regions. 

An examination of satellite imagery of the condition of vegetation (as measured by the NDVI or Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in the first dekad of September of this year shows increasingly thick vegetation into the southern reaches of the country's northern Gao and Timbuktu regions.  For the most part, the vegetation front has crossed the Mauritanian border into the Kayes and Koulikoro regions in the northwestern reaches of the country (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Condition of vegetation (NDVI) as of September 10, 2006

FEWS NET Mali; Source of data: NASA, USGS

The levels of surface water resources are satisfactory and animal watering conditions are good.

Migratory animal herds are ensconced in rainy season grazing areas and salt cure areas.  Sedentary herds are being put out to graze in the vicinity of farming villages and hamlets, in the charge of shepherds and herders.

Progress of the 2006/07 growing season

The 2006/07 growing season got off to a difficult start due to the inadequacy and poor spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall in June and July, which affected all agro-ecological areas to varying degrees.  However, the progress of the growing season to date is cause for optimism. 

Cumulative rainfall totals for the first dekad of September were normal to above-normal in all parts of the country with the exception of the Gao and Kidal regions.  Total rainfall amounts for this period were greater than or equal to last year's figures, except in the Gao and Kidal regions and the central Koulikoro region, where they were down from last year.

Farmers stepped up their crop planting and transplanting efforts to take advantage of the July rains, with these planting and transplanting activities continuing into the month of August.

The Department of Agriculture advised farmers to plant short-cycle varieties of crops and implement potential water-saving farming methods.

On the whole, as of August 31st, planting rates for grain crops (millet, sorghum, maize and rice) were up from last year, with 2,974,443 hectares planted in crops in 2006 versus 2,811,210 hectares in 2005 (Figure 4). 

Figure 4: Area planted as of August 31 of 2005 and 2006
 
Graphic by FEWS NET Mali; Source of data: Department of Agriculture

The focus has been on millet, sorghum and cowpea crops as these are the main staple foods for households around the country.

However, planting rates for cotton are running approximately 8% behind figures for the same time last year.  Note that, in the face of the pattern of rainfall, certain cotton-growing areas in the Koulikoro region have been converted to grain fields.

On the whole, the appearance of fields and the progress of plant growth and development are good.  Reports on the stage of development of crops around the country show:

• millet/sorghum crops in the tillering-height growth stage;
• maize crops in the heading-maturation stage; 
• rainfed and lowland rice crops in the height growth stage;
• cotton crops in the flowering-capsule formation stage;
• groundnut, earthpea and cowpea crops in the branching-flowering and pod and fruit formation stage;
• fonio crops in the flowering-heading-early maturation stage; and
• transplanted rice crops in the recovery-tillering-height growth stage.

The later than usual onset of the rains in Office Riz S?gou and Office Riz Mopti service areas is expected to restrict the development of lowland areas which account for roughly 1/3 of the area planted in rice.

In contrast, an additional 1,000 hectares have been planted in crops in the Office du Niger area in the S?gou region, including 704 hectares with USAID funding and another 352 hectares with national budget funds.  Elsewhere, farming activities for the 2006/07 ?winter? growing season have been progressing routinely.  The main farming activities underway at the beginning of September were weeding, the application of mineral fertilizer and supplemental irrigation.  Most crops are in the tillering and height growth stages of development.

As of September 10th of this year, farmers had transplanted 65,095 hectares of crops, compared with 64,685 hectares at the same time last year.

Plant health conditions

The desert locust situation is still calm.

There are reports of flocks of grain-eating birds (Quelea quelea) which are also laying eggs in the Mopti, Timbuktu and Gao regions.  The last details are being worked out for an aerial treatment program scheduled to be implemented beginning in the last dekad of September. 

There are also reports of plant lice infestations in the Sikasso (Koutiala, Kolondi?ba), S?gou (San) and Koulikoro (Nara) regions which are causing the inner leaves of sorghum plants to wither and disrupting the photosynthesis process.  Crops in these areas have already been treated.

Right now, the growing season is looking promising in all farming areas of the country, with crops making good progress in terms of their growth and development.  However, the prolongation of useful rainfall until mid-October is crucial to a good outcome for the current growing season, assuming, moreover, that plant health conditions can be kept under control.  Soon, grain prices should be coming down even further with the imminent arrival of fresh produce on markets around the country. 

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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