Figure 1. Percentage of population needing humanitarian assistance in 2007 (Emergency + PSNP)     FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Data source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB). Graphics by FEWS NET, May 2007

• Current restrictions on trade and movement in Somali Region could lead to a humanitarian crisis among pastoral and agropastoral populations in Warder Zone, Korahe Zone and parts of Fik and Gode Zones if they are not lifted.

• Severe water and pasture shortages in parts of Afar Region due to failed sugum (March to May) rains has caused unusual movement of livestock and people. Unless the karma (July to September) rains perform well, the situation could quickly deteriorate into a humanitarian emergency.

• Early floods have occurred in southern parts of the country. More severe flooding is expected between July and September throughout the country according to the National Metrological Agency (NMA). Major floods could result in increased destitution, reduced livelihood options and increased chronic food insecurity in affected areas unless adequate preparations are made to mitigate the impact of flooding.

Critical events and seasonal timeline

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2007 belg assessment update

A multi-agency belg (March to May) season assessment commenced on June 25, 2007, covering Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya, Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ (SNNP), Somali and Afar regions. The assessment is being conducted using the Household Economy Approach (HEA) in Tigray, SNNP and Somali regions where baseline data is available. In the other regions, the traditional method of assessment is being used. Teams are expected to report back in mid-July. The assessments are on schedule, except in parts of Somali Region where assessments have been delayed in Warder, Korahe, Gode and Fik zones as a result of security restrictions.   

The results of the belg assessment will be used as a contingency figure for resource mobilization, according to the government’s new policy, and actual provision of relief food aid will be based on additional verification assessments to be conducted on a case-by-case basis.

Verification assessments were conducted in April in Oromiya, Gambella, SNNP, and Somali regions, following the 2006 meher (main)-season assessment and contingency appeal. Emergency food aid needs were verified in all areas assessed, except for Somali Region where only chronic needs were identified. However, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) has not started in Somali Region, and there is no mechanism this year to addresses the needs of the chronically food insecure. At the same time, a worrying situation is developing in Somali Region (see below).

Somali Region update

The security situation in some areas of the Somali Region has resulted in restricted movement of government and non-governmental humanitarian agencies and commercial traders in Korahe, Warder, parts of Fik, parts of Degehabur and parts of Gode zones. This has reduced the availability of commodities in markets since the second week of June. The movement of livestock in and out of these areas has also been restricted, both because of the security situation and Rift Valley Fever control measures.

Most of the populations in these five zones are either pastoral or agropastoral with a very high reliance on the market to sell livestock and buy grains and other imported food items such as sugar, rice and pasta. Restricted movement within these areas has resulted in price increases for staple foods and severely reduced livestock demand. Food prices have more than doubled. For example, the price of 50 kg of rice in Warder and Korahe zones was 220 birr in May 2007, but had risen to 500 birr by June 2007. Recent field reports indicate that cereals are not available in these markets. At the same time, because the normal market for livestock in these areas is outside the areas where movement is restricted, herders are unable to access the markets and sell their livestock.

Somali Region has not received food aid since December 2006, because of the government’s new policy of verifying needs on a case-by-case basis before providing relief food assistance. The region requested food assistance in April 2007. Verification teams that were sent to the region found chronic food insecurity and recommended food interventions. However, because the team found only chronic food insecurity, the critera for emergency food aid was not met. At the same time, the 1.1 million chronically food insecure people identified by the government are not receiving assistance because the PSNP has not started in the region yet due to limited capacity in the region. However, the government is planning to dispatch emergency food aid in July to some secure areas in the region, and discussions are underway to address needs in the areas where secuirity is a concern.

In addition to the chronic food insecurity, people in the region have faced severe drought in 2005/06, severe flooding in riverine areas in 2006, conflict, various human and livestock diseases, record-high cereal prices (even before the current restrictions) and a livestock trade ban. The effect of these shocks has been to severely limit people’s resilience and increase their vulnerability to food insecurity. Even small shocks can quickly result in extreme food insecurity.

The combination of the current restrictions on trade and movement, the high risk of flooding between July and September reported by the National Metrological Agency and the progression of the dry season mean that there is a high risk that the food security situation could deteriorate into a severe humanitarian crisis in the second half of 2007.

Market analysis

Cereal prices have started to increase following normal seasonal trends, except for white wheat, which showed a slight decline in May (see figures 2 and 3). Although these trends represent the normal seasonal pattern, prices of cereals remain high compared to their 2002 to 2006 average. The prices of mixed teff, white wheat and white maize increased by 70, 62 and 35 percent respectively compared to their five-year average.

As the hunger season for most crop-producing parts of the country starts in June, food stocks from own-production decline and many farmers become more dependent on markets. High cereal prices have a significant negative effect on the food security of those farmers who rely on the market during the June to September hunger period, but who have very limited income during this period.

The government’s effort to provide 25 kg of wheat to the urban poor for a subsidized price of 45 birr did not bring about the intended objective of stabilizing prices. Other forms of market intervention are required to stabilize high prices to limit their impact on the households most vulnerable to food insecurity in both the urban and rural areas of the country.

Figure 2. Wholesale prices for select staple cereals in Addis Ababa   FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 3. Retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2002-2006 monthly average   FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 12 US cents.

Seasonal progress

The March to May (belg/gu) season is the main rainy season for the south and southeastern pastoral areas as well as most crop-producing areas of the SNNP Region. The March to May rains are also important for coffee flowering in the coffee-growing areas of the west and the south, as well as for land preparation and planting of meher long-cycle crops.

The performance of the belg/gu rains was below normal in the belg crop-producing parts of Southern Tigray, the lowlands of eastern Amhara Region, the lowlands of East and West Hararghe zones of Oromiya Region as well as along the Rift Valley. Most of SNNP Region, the highland and midland areas of eastern Amhara Region and the highlands and midlands of East and West Hararghe zones received normal to above-normal rainfall.

Belg crops contribute about 5 to 10 percent of annual crop production of the country. Although the crop’s overall contribution is not high, there are localized areas in the northeastern highlands and in SNNPR that are highly dependent on belg production. While the performance of the belg crops is reported to be normal in most of SNNPR, in Southern Tigray Zone, the lowlands of eastern Amhara and the lowlands of East and West Hararghe, the performance of the season is reported to be below normal. More information will become available as the belg assessment teams report back.

The performance of the sugum (minor) rains between March and May in the pastoral region of Afar was very poor, except in Zone 3. Severe shortages of water and pasture have been reported in Chifra, Dewe, Telalak, Ewa and Awra woredas. Unusual movements of people with their livestock from these woredas to the neighboring Chefa Valley in Amhara Region in search of water and pasture have been reported. The availability of water and pasture is expected to improve with the start of the main rainy season (karma), which is expected in mid-July. If the rains do not start on time or the performance of the rains is below normal, a significant deterioration in the food security situation would quickly occur.

Shinile, Jijiga, Degehabur, Fik and Liben zones of Somali Region received well-distributed rain during the gu season. As a result, water and pasture availability in these zones is reported to be normal, except in a few small areas. Gode, Afder, Korahe and Warder zones received below-normal rains during the season. In these zones, the availability of pasture is expected to be normal as a result of excellent rains during the previous season, but water scarcity could become a problem as the dry season progresses.

This year’s kiremt (main) rains started early in many areas of the country with no interruption from the belg rains, whereas normally there is a month gap between the two seasons. The amount and distribution to date has been normal to above normal in most areas of the country (see RFE imagery in figure 4) except in southern parts of Afar Region, Harari Region, Dire Dawa Region and the lowlands of East and West Hararghe zones of Oromiya Region. The kiremt rains are the major rains in most of the country and are important for the main-season meher production which contributes about 90 to 95 percent of the country’s production as well as for pasture and water regeneration in the northeastern pastoral region.

The planting of long-cycle meher crops was done on time in most meher crop-producing parts of the country except in the lowlands of East and West Hararghe zones of Oromiya Region, where planting has been delayed due to moisture stress.

Figure 4. Satellite-estimated rainfall compared to the long-term average (third dekad of May 2007 through third dekad of June 2007)
May 20 to 31	June 1 to 10	June 10 to 20
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June 20 to 30		Difference from average
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Source: NOAA rainfall imagery, produced by USGS-EROS Data Center. Graphics by FEWS NET.

High flood risk during kiremt 2007<