Food security conditions in March for most of the population were encouraging, with harvests of off-season berbéré (flood-irrigated sorghum) crops bolstering market supplies. On-farm grain availability is also being bolstered by imports, particularly from the humanitarian pipeline supplying aid to refugees and IDP areas. However, some problems exist.

Two consecutive years of surplus grain production have helped ensure regular market supplies. With recent harvests of fresh berbéré crops, prices have been trending downwards on major grain markets around the country during this post-harvest period for rainfed grain and fresh berbéré crops. This downward trend in market prices, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year, is attributable to the combined effects of two surplus crop years and the start-up of harvests of berbéré crops. Lower prices and good availability have helped the National Food Security Agency (ONASA) rebuild the national food security reserve under an on-going procurement program launched in December 2006 in the country’s Sudanian zone.

Herders selling sheep have improved grain access due to the atypical drop in prices for grain crops, despite their weakened purchasing power caused by the normal down swing in sheep prices after the December holiday season,.

Seasonal calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Food availability

Final estimates by Chad’s Agricultural Statistics Division put country-wide gross grain production for the 2006/07 growing season at 1,991,122 metric tons (MT), 8 percent above the figure for 2005/06, which was also a good year, and 29 percent above the five-year average (Figure 1).

The national food security reserve currently holds 14,250 MT of corn, millet and sorghum. The Chadian government’s target for this year of 35,000 MT of grain should be attainable due to low grain prices and the budget surplus generated by the country’s oil revenues.

The food aid pipeline for refugees and IDPs operated by the humanitarian agencies has delivered close to 15,841 MT of food supplies for the next three months (March through May) and is expecting additional shipments of 14,000 MT through Libya and 1,320 MT through Douala. The pre-positioning of food stores should prevent any interruption in the provisioning of camps and settlement sites due to the closing of roads with the onset of the rainy season between April and June. Under normal circumstances, this pipeline should meet the needs of current target groups of refugees and IDPs through October of this year.

Despite generally good grain availability in the month of March, certain population groups have been categorized as relatively vulnerable to food insecurity problems, making it necessary to monitor their food situation.

Current food security conditions

Production deficit areas

On-farm food reserves are low in the prefectures of Guera, Kanem, Batha, Tandjilé, West Logone, East Logone and Moyen Chari where localized rainfall deficits were experienced during the last agricultural season. Residents of these areas are coping in different ways, some harsher than others, according to the level of their on-farm food reserves. At this time of year when market supplies are relatively good, such strategies are designed to develop a source of income with which to purchase enough grain on local markets to meet their daily consumption requirements and, in some cases, to build up their on-farm reserves in preparation for the lean period. These households engage in small-scale trade, grow of off-season cash crops, make crafts and obtain salaried employment to earn enough to purchase adequate food.

Refugee camps

Despite mounting security problems in the areas receiving refugees, the food situation in the country’s 12 Sudanese refugee camps is stable due to timely distributions of food rations with an energy value of approximately 2000 Kcal per person per day. Over 3,700 MT of food supplies were distributed to a target group of approximately 224,700 refugees for the month of March without any major incidents. Looking ahead, current food aid stocks should cover three months worth of food needs. Expected shipments through Libya and Cameroon should meet needs through October 2008.

However, persistent shortages of drinking water are becoming more serious due to increased needs during the hot season when water levels are at their lowest points. Daily rations of drinking water at the Amnabak, Iridimi and Touloum camps amount to approximately 11, 8 and 6 liters per person, respectively. According to local humanitarian organizations, the norm is 15 liters per person per day.

The deterioration in security conditions in Dar Tama department is threatening food access at certain camps in the Northeast, despite the availability of pre-positioned food supplies. The relocation of relief workers by local humanitarian agencies due to security concerns has limited their capacity to provide essential services in these camp sites.

In contrast to the situation of the Sudanese refugee population in eastern Chad, the Central African refugees in the country’s four southern camps appear to be better adapting to their circumstances because of better climatic conditions in the Sudanian zone and larger availability of natural resources compared with the East. A joint FEWS NET/CILSS/FAO/Ministry of Agriculture mission early this month confirmed the well-being of this population group and the urban atmosphere of these camps, which are equipped with basic services such as drinking water, electricity, audiovisual services, etc.

The deterioration in security conditions in the northern reaches of the Central African Republic and growing problems with road thieves created yet another wave of Central African refugees crossing into southern Chad early this month. These refugees settled in Goré sub-prefecture. The recent joint FEWS NET/CILSS/FAO/Ministry of Agriculture mission witnessed several families, mainly Fulani, consisting mostly of women and children, arriving at the Chadian military post on the border between the two countries at the beginning of the month. It is essential for these new refugees to be registered and admitted to operational camps before the first rains of the season, which normally begin sometime in April in this area. Moreover, there is an urgent need to build storage depots to protect the humanitarian aid pre-positioned in the refugee camps.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)

There is still very little specific data available on IDPs due to the relative mobility of this population group, as well as to the deterioration in security conditions in the southern part of the country, which has limited access to some camps. The last coordination and consultation meeting on the situation of the country’s internally displaced population in mid-March tentatively estimated its size at 130,194 individuals, not including the Adé area.

While generally stable, the food security of IDPs in certain camp sites is still troubling and warrants close monitoring. Nutritional screening activities for February at the Gouroukoun, Habilé, Koubigou, Aradib and Koloma camps and the three host villages for the first three camp sites put the global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate for the camps and villages in question at 7.4 percent, compared with 7.7 percent for the month of January. Possible explanations for the improvement in the GAM rate include distributions of food supplies, the nutritional treatment of IDPs at the aforesaid sites at health facilities and, in particular, efforts to improve their water supply. However, GAM rates at the Habilé and Koloma camps for the month of March were at 9.9 and 11 percent, respectively, up from rates of 6.8 and 9.6 percent, respectively, in the month of January. Thus, the nutritional situation at both these sites will require especially close monitoring.

Food distributions, which started up in the first half of February, were completed early in March in Dogdoré, where 24,400 recipients received one month worth of food rations.

Host communities in refugee-receiving areas

Host communities continue to enjoy certain benefits tied to the presence of refugee camps or IDP settlement sites (passive food distributions, public works such as the installation of boreholes, health care services, small-scale trade, etc.) However, the ongoing suspension of Food for Work programs in certain areas facing high-level security threats is curtailing food access. The food outlook for this population group is basically contingent on progress in addressing current security problems and the implementation of ongoing relief programs designed to increasingly address the specific needs of this group. The continued disruption of supply channels due to security problems could mean higher prices, weakening the purchasing power of the native population.

Figure 2. Average monthly trends in millet prices on Chad’s four largest markets (March 2006 to March 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIM/FEWS NET; Analysis by FEWS NET

Analysis of grain prices

In general, a comparison of price trends for the month of March against the five-year average shows a steeper than average downswing in millet prices on all urban markets monitored by FEWS NET (N’Djamena, Moundou, Sarh and Abéché). The Moundou (14 percent) and Sarh (15 percent) markets show the steepest downturns in average millet prices, with N’Djamena (1 percent) and Abéché (3 percent) reporting somewhat smaller drops in prices as higher level security threats in this area continue to disrupt road travel.

Price fluctuations compared with last year on the four markets tracked by FEWS NET vary from one location to another (Figure 2). Of the four markets subject to monitoring, prices on two are down due to production surpluses, prices on one market are stable and prices on the fourth market are higher due, more or less, to security problems. However, in general, prices for the first quarter of the year are trending downwards.

Figure 3. Terms of trade for sheep/millet on the N'Djamena market (March 06 to March 07) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIM/FEWS NET; Analysis by FEWS NET

Terms of trade

The average price of a sheep in the month of March was 20,000 CFAF/head, dropping slightly (by