Figure 1. Livelihoods zones in southern Sudan FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Figure 2. Current estimated food security conditions, November 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

• Completed harvests of early-maturing crops of sorghum, maize, groundnuts, sesame and legumes in most unimodal areas are likely to sustain households normally, until February 2008, with the exception of flooded areas of the Nile-Sobat and Eastern Flood Plains zones (Figure 1), However, while flood-related food shortages started in October in parts of these zones, they are expected to ease in January and February, when floods recede and access to recessional crops, fish, water plants and milk significantly improves, due to abundant water and pastures. The exception to this is in Bieh country, where a combination of crop losses due to floods, insufficient access to markets and other infrastructure and persistent cattle rustling and inter-clan tensions is causing high levels of food insecurity to persist (Figure 2). While recessional agriculture is possible in flood-affected areas of this county, recessional harvests are unlikely to compensate for the reduced main-season production. In addition, the negative impacts of floods in West and East Aweil, Gogrial, Twic and Bor counties is likely to become evident in January, when harvest stocks begin to run out.

• The overall impact of floods in various zones remains localized. Tentative estimates indicate that between 450,000 and 550,000 households live in flood-affected areas, though it is not anticipated that all of these households lost their harvests. The WFP-led Annual Livelihoods Needs Assessment and FAO-led Crop and Food Supply Assessment (CFSAM), completed in October and November respectively, will help establish the magnitude of the floods and their impact.

• The potential spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) from northern to southern Sudan requires close monitoring.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Cropping seasons in southern Sudan FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

Seasonal progress

Most unimodal cropping areas (grey and light green areas in Figure 3) experienced a start of season that began one or two months early. This early start was followed by consistently above-normal rains, which caused flooding between July and September in some areas. Despite this, harvesting of the short-cycle (June to September) sorghum crops was completed in October in many of these areas. Meanwhile, long-cycle sorghum (June to November) in unimodal growing areas, mostly located in the Ironstone Plateau and southern parts of the Western Flood Plains (Figure 1), will be harvested from late December to January. Second season crops in bimodal areas (dark green areas in Figure 3) located in the Greenbelt livelihood zone (Figure 1) will also be harvested in December.

As of October, livestock in flooded areas of the Nile-Sobat and Eastern Flood Plains zones could not access sufficient pasture, though this has improved as water in some areas begins to dry up. Conditions will further improve as remaining flood waters recede between December and February. However, even with improved access to pasture in the months ahead, livestock face the potential spread of RVF, a fever causing viral disease that affects humans and livestock and thrives in extremely wet conditions, to South Sudan. RVF was first suspected in northern Sudan in mid-October, and had killed more than 80 people in White Nile, Sinnar and Gazeera by early November. Extensive flooding throughout the country this year present the perfect conditions for an RVF outbreak in central and southeastern parts of Sudan. RVF is commonly spread through mosquitoes bites or contact with blood or other fluids from infected animals. In humans, RVF can cause serious eye infection, inflammation of the brain, severe bleeding and death. An outbreak of RVF has the potential to cause serious economic losses for livestock owners should large numbers of livestock die or if the outbreak results in decreased trade. FAO is currently working closely with the Government of Sudan (GoS) to control the spread of the virus.

As harvests continue and flood waters recede, critical factors to monitor from now through March 2008 include:

• Harvest performances in bimodal and unimodal cropping areas
• The evolving impact of the 2007 floods on food access
• Flood recession and the emergence of post-flood opportunities, including increased fishing and recessional agriculture
• Livestock, fish and grain market activities
• Dry season livestock and population movements
• Civil-insecurity and livestock-related conflicts
• The status of the north-south population returns and their impact and the influence of the February 2008 census on them

Analysis by livelihoods zone

Western Flood Plains Zone

Rains in most of this zone started one-to-two months early, triggering early planting of short- and long-cycle crops. Crop harvests were completed in October in northern parts of the zone (northern Bahr El Gazal) while the main sorghum harvest is expected between December and January in the southern (Lakes) areas. Highland areas in the zone experienced a normal harvest, while below-normal harvests occurred in lowlands, due, in part, to crop losses that resulted from flooding

Figure 4a. Livelihood zones and states in southern Sudan FULL-SIZE IMAGE Figure 4b. Livelihood zones and counties in southern Sudan FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source for 4a, 4b: FEWS NET

in these areas. Despite this flood, an average harvest with localized surpluses is expected in the zone, and total harvest stocks are anticipated to last until early 2008.

In the Aweil Counties of Northern Bahr El Gazal State (Figures 4a and 4b), planting of short-cycle maize, sorghum and groundnut crops in April and May was followed by a dry spell in July and flooding in lowland areas in July and September. Though crop performance in lowlands was below average due to floods, performance in highland areas was average and may compensate for some lowland production shortfalls for those households with farms in lowland and highland areas.

In Warrap State’s Gogrial County, early planting of maize, sorghum, sesame and groundnuts resulted to harvests starting as early as July and continuing into September. Flooding occurred in Twic County, but this may prove beneficial for recessional agriculture in select areas between November and January.

In Warrap State’s Tonj County, significant sorghum surpluses are expected again when the harvest begins in December and January. These crop surpluses, which have been recorded in the county in recent years, are, in part, the result of increased numbers of farmers using ox-ploughs for crop cultivation.

Lakes State’s Cuibet County experienced a typical June to July dry spell in some areas and flooding from July to September in others. Crops planted in this county include maize, long- and short-cycle sorghum, groundnuts, millet and vegetables such as pumpkin and okra. Maize, short-cycle sorghum and vegetables were harvested and consumed in August and September. Average groundnut harvests occurred between October and November, and long-cycle sorghum is due for harvest in December and January.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone

Flooding during July and August significantly affected crop performance in this zone - especially in lowland areas in Unity State - resulting in food shortages between October and December. These shortages will dramatically decrease in January and February, when flood waters recede and access to fish and water plants increase enough to compensate for most flood-related crop losses. In addition, households in central and some northern parts of Unity State that took advantage of the early onset of the season by planting the main maize crop in April were able to harvest it before floods occurred. Grain stocks for these households should last until the end of the year, especially in counties such as Rubkona, Koch and Guit.

In Ruweng and Abiemnom counties, which are situated further north, the main crop is long-cycle sorghum, and harvests are not expected until December. In these areas, crop conditions are reportedly mixed due to flooding, but a significant number of farmers expect an average harvest. In addition, in these same areas, the Government of South Sudan’s (GoSS) Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry’s (MoAF) started rain-fed mechanized farming of maize and sorghum last year. This year, the MoAF cultivated an estimated 7,500 fedan (slightly over 3,100 ha) through this mechanized farming, and rough estimates reveal that 50 percent of the area cultivated is expected to yield favorably in December and January. It is not clear how much of the mechanized farming yields will be available to the local population, since that which was harvested last year was used to feed security forces, but the mechanized approach presents a potential source of large amounts of grain for local populations in the future, especially if the MoAF succeeds in cultivating a planned 30,000 fedan (12,500 ha) next year.

Further south in this zone, where floods were more devastating, little main-season sorghum was harvested in September and October. However, a near-normal harvest is likely in select highland areas, where floods had less effect on crops. While the proportion of farms affected by floods remains unclear, rough estimates indicate that 40 to 60 percent of farms in southern parts of the state (including in parts of Leer, Koch, Mayiendit and Payinjiar counties) may have been affected.

In terms of food security prospects, areas that were not as affected by floods in this zone are likely to access food normally, while flood-affected areas are likely to experience a below-average harvest. It is possible, however, that recessional (ratoon) sorghum crops in areas of Nyal, Haat, Nyandin, Old Fangak and Jiech/Ayod and increased fish and milk access as flood waters recede could compensate for harvest losses associated with the floods in these areas.

Opportunities to purchase grain from the North remain high, but prices depend significantly on this year’s production in Kordofan State. Improved trade between northern and southern Sudan since the January 2005 peace treaty and increasing livestock and fish prices have improved household grain access. In addition, increased availability of water as a result of the floods is likely to allow for an average to above-average tobacco harvest in December and January, This, as well as sales of livestock, grass, charcoal and milk will supplement the incomes of producer households.

Eastern Flood Plains

Significant reductions in crop yield occurred in many parts of this zone due to earlier-than-normal flooding. The impact of these reductions will be more evident in areas with less access to markets and cash income opportunities, such as Bieh and Latjor. Main-season yield reductions will be less evident in areas where flood recessional agriculture is expected. Similar to the Western Flood Plains, rains in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone started a month early, facilitating early planting of maize and sorghum, which was harvested before floods peaked in August.

In Shilluk County, CFSAM visits to the Mohamed El Jak rain-fed mechanized farms near Malakal Town revealed that long-cycle sorghum crops (commonly known as Agono) that were planted in June and July are maturing and will be harvested in December or January. However, the proportion of households cultivating long-cycle sorghum crops in this area remains unclear. In addition, this year’s production on the Mohamed El Jak mechanized farms is estimated to total 5120 fedan (2100 ha), and will likely yield approximately 1,400 MT. These yields will certainly be sold to local populations, who will earn income for their purchase through the sale of charcoal, shoats, firewood, fish, vegetables and labor. Additional grain can also be sourced further north by traders from bigger, rain-fed Renk. It is likely that grain from Renk will remain available into the next year, as stocks from last year’s excellent harvest, which stabilized prices throughout 2007, are still available. This year, the average price of 90 kgs of sorghum was 65 pounds, compared to 135 pounds in 2006. This decrease in prices is due to the increased availability of grain resulting from an excellent harvest in Renk’s rain-fed mechanized farms.

Flooding also started earlier than normal in Akobo County, but households were able to harvest some crops between August and October, depending on planting time.

Hills-Mountains Zone

Average crop performance is expected in western parts of the Hills and Mountains Zone, while below-average crop yields are anticipated in some eastern areas. However, the potential for conflict between Mundari pastoralists and the agricultural community in Juba County remains, due to animal grazing on crops. In recent years, cattle belonging to the Mundari pastoral tribe have invaded and destroyed crops in neighboring agricultural communities, forcing some agricultural households to cultivate only groundnuts this year. Such grazing has already reduced crop yields from what could have been an average or above-average production year, as more farmers living near Juba town used tractors to cultivate maize, groundnuts and sorghum this year. Also, given the high demand for timber in Juba town, a number of farmers have engaged in growing trees, such as teak and eucalyptus, for commercial purposes.

Further east in this zone, in Torit County, a timely start of season allowed for the planting of long-cycle (millet and sorghum) and short-cycle (maize, groundnuts and sesame) in April and May. Short-cycle crops were harvested in July, and the rest will be harvested December and January. Improved civil security due to reduced attacks by Uganda’s Lords Resistance Army (LRA) also resulted in the cultivation of previously abandoned farms in the mountainous Imatong area, though the amount of land cultivated in and crop performance of these areas remains unclear. However, above-average rains in some areas, such as Bur Payam, caused water logging and necessitated replanting. In other areas, a June dry spell also necessitated replanting. These events point to the likelihood of average or slightly-below average crop performance this year.

Pastoral Zone

Above-average vegetation and pasture conditions, and a good cropping year for those households that cultivate will allow for stable food security conditions in the Pastoral Zone. Pasture and water conditions in this zone (Kapoeta and Pibor counties) remain above average, following favorable rainfall in 2006 and 2007. An estimated 35 to 45 percent of households (generally those with less livestock) have increased cultivation activities during recent years, though reliance on cultivation, especially in Kapoeta County, remains fragile due to the erratic nature of rainfall in this area. Overall, prospects for future livestock performance, supplemented by increased farming and favorable rainfall conditions this year points to a reasonably good year ahead, though this will ultimately be determined by the ability of households in this area to access grain and livestock markets, as most households still need to sell some of their livestock to purchase grain.

Ironstone Plateau Zone

Normal crop harvests are expected starting November in the Ironstone Plateau Zone, implying stable food security conditions in the coming year. As in other zones, rains in the Ironstone Plateau started as early as April, especially in Wau County. These rains were followed by a typical dry spell. Early-planted crops, including maize, sorghum and groundnuts, were harvested in August. These crops are now being consumed as households wait to harvest the main, long-cycle sorghum crop between December and January. A similar cultivation pattern occurred in neighboring Raga County. CFSAM visits to both Raja and Wau in October suggest increased production levels in these areas, due to increased area planted and above average rainfall during 2007.

Further south in Terekeka, good crop production is anticipated again this year. Harvests of the main sorghum crop are ongoing, and households continue to utilize early crops such as groundnuts, harvested around August, to maintain their food security. Continued peace in this area has allowed market activities to improve significantly in this area compared to last year, but they are still constrained by poor road conditions.

Greenbelt

Crop surpluses are anticipated again this year in the Greenbelt Zone, though difficulties storing these surpluses, high post harvest losses (as much as 30 percent) and extremely bad road conditions that severely inhibit links to food markets remain priorities to address.

Rainfall in this predominantly bimodal zone started normally in most areas in April, though rains were slightly delayed in some areas in Yei, Tambura and Yambio counties, and they were followed by a dry spell in June. Nonetheless, the first cropping season (April to July) performed normally, and short cycle crops of maize, sesame, sorghum and groundnut crops harvested in July will be carried over into the second season harvest, due in January. The second season started in August and September, and is comprised of sesame, sorghum, groundnuts, cassava and rice. Updates from CFSAM visits to several locations in this zone during October indicated increased income earning opportunities, such as charcoal and brick making, timber logging and construction work. While these opportunities provide important sources of income, they are likely to divert labor from agricultural activities. However, given the difficulty households in this zone face accessing markets to sell crop surpluses due to poor road conditions and the above-normal post harvest cereal losses that result, some households are moving away from second-season cropping activities.