Summary

Market supplies of locally grown grain crops and national grain reserves declined in January as grain prices inched upwards due also in part to the beginning of the groundnut marketing season and the year-end holiday season (Tabaski and New Years), curtailing grain availability and disrupting grain transfers in many parts of the country.

Conditions in certain localized areas showing production shortfalls after a rainy season with below-normal rainfall, particularly in forest grazing areas, will require relief measures to protect the food security of area residents. There is also a heightened risk of brush fires at this time of year in these same areas which, unless contained, could destroy pasturelands, reducing food available for livestock.

Seasonal calendar

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Food security conditions

Four months after the end of the growing season, the food and economic situation of poor and middle-income households is more than adequate. However, adverse seasonal conditions characteristic of this time of year could complicate the food situation for certain communities and their livestock, particularly in the Matam, Kaolack and Diourbel regions. These risk factors include brush fires, the steady depletion of family food reserves, the drying up of seasonal lakes and ponds and the deterioration of pasture resources used to feed livestock.

There was a slight improvement in rural household income this past month, particularly in the case of pastoralists, with cash inflows from sales of animals in the weeks leading up to the celebration of Tabaski (the Muslim Feast of the Sheep). The gathering of wild plant foods (gum arabic, baobab fruit) and truck farming activities are bolstering limited household resources.  Households in coastal and high out-migration areas are still showing adequate income from remittances and fishing activities.

Markets

There has been sizeable drop in the level of market supplies and trader inventories since last month on all domestic markets, including both rural and urban markets. Inventory levels for locally grown grain crops on markets tracked by the Food Security Commission fell sharply between December and January, particularly in the case of souna millet inventories, which dropped from 883 to 410 MT (by 50 percent). This tightening in supply is a result of the start-up of the groundnut marketing season and the Tabaski holiday season when the threshing of grain crops in general and millet in particular is suspended and the focus is on the marketing of groundnut crops and the sale of small animals, slowing grain transfers to urban and northern markets.

Figure 1. Trends in the average retail price of millet in regional capitals (as of January 18, 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of data: CSA/SIM; Graphic by FEWS NET

Figure 2. Trends in the average retail price of millet on rural markets (as of January 18, 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: CSA/SIM; Graphic by FEWS NET

These dwindling inventories and the slowdown in grain transfers drove prices up across-the-board on all grain markets, except in the Saint-Louis region, where prices inched downwards.

Price movements on urban markets in regional capitals between December and January were extremely mixed, despite the general slowdown in grain transfers to these markets. Thus, prices are 5 to 9 percent lower in Thiès and Ziguinchor, higher in Dakar, Fatick, Kaolack and Tambacounda and relatively stable in Diourbel, Louga and Saint-Louis (Figure 1).

January prices for this year are higher than at the same time last year on all markets with the exception of Diourbel, Louga and Ziguinchor. Prices in Fatick are more than 45 percent higher than last year. Prices on these same urban markets are also running above the average for 2001-05.

On the whole, grain prices are also climbing on rural markets, except in Mpal and Ourossogui (in the Matam region), where they are lower than at the same time last year. Like urban prices, rural market prices are running above the average for 2001-05 (Figure 2).

Plant production for 2006: Condition of natural rangeland

Primary natural rangeland production in Senegal for the year 2006 is satisfactory, with generally high levels of biomass production in all forest grazing areas with the exception of a few localized areas in the Louga and Matam regions affected by last August’s drought. Pasture quality is good, with a well-balanced distribution of grasses and pulses. Proper pasture management could limit the extent of current seasonal migration.

Figure 3. Vegetative cover for 2006

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Source: Environmental Monitoring Center (CSE)