Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE     Source: FEWS NET Tanzania

• Food security conditions are generally satisfactory, following good harvests throughout the country. Households in localized areas face food shortages caused by the impacts of adverse rainfall earlier in 2007 (see yellow areas in Figure 1), and the number of food insecure households will be established by a rapid vulnerability assessment being started in mid-August.

• Pasture and water availability are currently good, and livestock prices are increasing, leading to good food access for pastoral households. The availability of pasture and water will likely deteriorate as dry season progresses, although conditions are expected to remain sufficient for livestock until the next rainy season begins in October in bimodal areas and November in unimodal areas.

• Food is widely available in markets. Prices are seasonably increasing moderately in many markets, which indicates a normal movement of food from surplus to deficit areas. The relatively stable prices enable good accessibility to food for market-dependent households. Throughout the marketing season, if cereal exports increase drastically in response to the high demand from other countries in the region, food availability could become limited and domestic prices could begin to increase more than normal.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Food security summary

Food security is currently stable, and most households are generally food secure. Food is widely available, following the recent completion of the msimu harvest in unimodal areas and masika harvest in bimodal areas, and households are generally able to access sufficient food from their own stocks or through market purchases. However, localized areas of moderate food insecurity exist where food shortages resulted from floods or the poor performance of the msimu or masika rains. The number of households facing food insecurity will be established by the rapid vulnerability assessment (RVA) planned to be conducted by the multi-agency Food Security Information Team (FSIT) starting in mid-August.

In pastoral areas, pasture and forage is generally available and in normal to very good condition. According to the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) forage forecast, forage conditions will continue to be stable in the next two months in most parts of northwestern and central Tanzania. However, forage conditions in Engare Naibor in Monduli District, West Kilimanjaro in Moshi District and parts of Ngorongoro District are declining, and are expected to deteriorate further into pockets off scarce pasture and browse until the rains begin in October.

Given the stable forage conditions in most of the country, animal body conditions are expected to remain good. The supply of cattle to Dar es Salaam, the main cattle market, has increased, and the prices of all grades of cattle are also increasing. The rise in the price of livestock can be largely attributed to the increased demand for beef as a result of consumers and traders gaining more confidence in trade and consumption relative to previous months in the wake of the Rift Valley Fever disease. For example, the prices of grade-2 mature animals increased 46 percent, and grade-3 mature animals increased 56 percent, after local income increased from cotton sales in cotton-growing agropastoralist areas (mainly Tabora, Shinyanga and Mwanza regions). The increased prices indicate improved terms of trade for pastoralists, which is facilitating strong purchasing power and ensuring pastoralist and agropastoralist food security. This increase in cattle prices is seasonal, and the prices are expected to drop soon as the income accrued from cotton sales is depleted.

In previous years, there has been a tendency for Newcastle disease in poultry to break out around September. The disease kills up to 90 percent of infected chickens, thus reducing an important source of household income. Measures to prevent a potential outbreak this year could include the government facilitating the availability of vaccines and conducting farmer awareness campaigns to increase understanding of the disease.

Seasonal progress

Currently, the growing cycles for annual crops have finished. The next main seasons will begin in October with the vuli rains in bimodal areas and in November with the msimu rains in unimodal parts of the country. Perennial crops are progressing well throughout the country; bananas in bimodal areas are at peak harvest time, and cassava in both bimodal and unimodal areas is at different growth stages and progressing well.

Markets, trade and food access

Figure 2: Maize prices in reference markets in 2006/07, in TZS/100kgs FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MITM

Food security conditions in Tanzania remained favorable during July, as the seasonal dry weather conditions facilitated the harvesting and storage of major food crops and their distribution to market centers. This has stabilized wholesale prices for the majority of food crops on most rural and urban markets, thereby providing consumers with satisfactory access to food.

Wholesale maize prices increased moderately between June and July on some markets (Figure 2). This increase is seasonal, and reflects normal flows of grain from surplus to deficit areas. Maize wholesale prices in Dar es Salaam, the major consumption and processing center for maize, remained stable between June and July, as maize supplies from various parts of the country flowed to the city.

A significant increase of 52 percent occurred in Mtwara in the Southern Coast. This price increase in the Southern Coast market is normal, as farmers often sell most of their produce soon after harvesting due to a lack of storage facilities and immediate cash needs. The high price of maize in these areas limits access to maize for market-dependant households. However, the price increase is beneficial for producer and trader households, as they are able to earn more income from the sale of their stocks. One probable cause of the trend is the move of traders to build up stocks in anticipation of high demand from other countries in southern Africa, and also for distribution in local markets.

The wholesale price of rice in Dar es Salaam and other markets has decreased, improving access to the food for consumers.

Although Tanzania is currently generally food secure, substantial cereal exports through formal and informal cross-border trade could lead to significant price increases and reduce the accessibility of food. Given the significant production deficits in other countries in southern Africa in the 2007 harvest, substantial exports of cereals are possible this year. Close monitoring of the amount of cereals exported is needed, and farmers should be advised to stock enough grains for their households.