Current food security conditions

Figure 1. Current food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET   Figure 2. Most likely food security scenario through July 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET   Figure 3. Worst-case food security scenario through July 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NE

The preliminary season-wide crop production figures published by CILSS put the grain harvest for the 2006/07 growing season in Burkina Faso at 3,858,224 metric tons. This figure is 18 percent above the five-year production average for the country, and 3 percent above 2005/06 production. On the whole, market supplies and commodity prices suggest an average to above-average food security situation through July 2007 in most parts of the country (Figure 1), with farm families in most livelihood zones benefiting from above-average grain availability from recent surplus harvests. Grain availability is, however, limited in localized areas of the Eastern, North-Central, Northern and Sahelian regions, where flooding and crop damage from insects and other parasites reduced crop yields.

Terms of trade continue to favor of herders, with livestock prices increasing thanks to good animal health and continued demand, while grain prices remain low as a result of surplus production and low demand.

Most likely food security scenario

With good crop supplies on markets and prices running below last season as well as the five-year average, it is highly likely that food security will remain above-average until the beginning of the rainy season in most parts of the country (Figure 1). However, localized areas of certain livelihood zones affected by climatic anomalies (floods, droughts and pest infestations) will experience increased food insecurity and a potential earlier-than-normal start to the hunger season.

The most likely food security outlook for Burkina Faso, therefore, falls within one of two scenarios:

Scenario 1 (general food security): Areas in scenario one will likely experience a good food security outlook through July of this year, and can expect mixed start-of-season conditions. These areas are traditionally surplus production areas in the farming livelihoods zones of the Western, Southwestern and Boucle du Mouhoun regions. Based on seasonal trends for the last five years, the growing season could begin sometime in late May or early June in these areas, while elsewhere it is not expected to begin until late June or July.

Scenario 2 (moderate food insecurity): Areas in scenario two are likely to experience food security problems due to the negative household impact of climatic anomalies on the 2006/07 growing season. These areas are all or partially within the crop-growing livelihoods zones of the Northern, North-Central and Sahelian regions and parts of the Eastern, South-Central and Central Plateau regions. These are traditionally grain deficit producing areas, and, on average, report production shortfalls one out of every three years. In these areas, the growing season usually begins sometime in July and the lean period can begin as early as May, much earlier than in other parts of the country.

Note: The Central region’s Kadiogo province (shown in orange in Figure 2) is completely occupied by Ouagadougou, the nation’s capital. This province is at a high risk for food insecurity because of its high population density and insufficient farmland for growing grain, making households largely reliant on markets to source their food needs.

Worst-case food security scenario

The start up and progress of the growing season not only shape the food security outlook of livelihood zones dependent on farming, but affect the household food security situation in all livelihood zones around the country. Thus, an irregular or poor spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall between May and July will negatively impact the food security of many households in Burkina Faso (Figure 3).

A poor start to and/or a poor progression of the next agricultural season would likely lead to one of four food insecurity scenarios:

Scenario 1 (general food security): Even with a potentially poor start-of-season, local harvests in crop-producing areas of the country could meet the food needs of area residents. Areas in scenario one are located in the agricultural production livelihood zones in the Southwestern, Cascades, Hauts Bassins and Boucle du Mouhoun regions.

Scenario 2 (moderate food insecurity): Areas in scenario two would be expected to become moderately food-insecure, given a poor start-of-season or poor distribution of rains thereafter. Irregular and poor spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall would result in a poor harvest in these areas, despite the implementation of food security stocks by farmers and traders. Areas in scenario two include provinces located in the central and eastern parts of the country.

Scenario 3 (high food insecurity): Areas in scenario three are highly vulnerable to food insecurity, and include the structurally deficit areas of the Sahelian, Northern and North-Central regions and parts of the East region. In the event of a poor start and/or poor progress of the growing season, the food security situation in these areas is likely to be very difficult due to their heavy reliance on other areas for food supplies. Moreover, as areas in scenario three are major livestock-producing areas, these populations would be doubly affected by a difficult growing season – both in their inability to obtain grain for their households as well as an inability to obtain sufficient pastureland for their grazing animals.

Scenario 4 (extreme food insecurity): Areas in scenario four lie in the chronically food insecure provinces of Bam, Ganzourgou, Kadiogo and Nahouri. Local harvests in these provinces have failed to meet household consumption needs for the last six years. These areas are densely populated and/or routinely negatively affected by climatic anomalies (e.g. drought, floods, pest infestations, etc.).