Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (Jul to Sep) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 2. Estimated most-likely food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Figure 3. Estimated worst-case food security conditions, fourth quarter 2007 (Oct to Dec) FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• Food security in the current quarter (July through September) is generally good. Food harvests continue, enabling farmers to build on-farm stocks and sell part of their produce to meet other household needs. Prices are increasing moderately in surplus production areas, but decreasing in areas where prices have been relatively high, indicating that food is flowing to areas where market demand is greater. Market-dependant households are able to access sufficient food. In pastoral areas, adequate pasture and water availability coupled with ongoing harvests are enabling satisfactory food security for pastoralist households.

• In the fourth quarter of 2007 (October to December), households will likely remain generally food secure. Food prices will increase seasonably, but most households will have sufficient access given the good production in recent harvests. The vuli and msimu rains will start on time, enabling agricultural activities to resume, which will generate income-earning opportunities. The total number of food insecure households will increase as the normal hunger season begins, but general food security will be better than normal.

• In the worst-case scenario in the fourth quarter of 2007, excessive exports of food to other countries will decrease food availability and increase prices substantially. The food access of many market-dependant households will decrease, and producer households may sell too much of their stocks and have to purchase food at higher prices later on. The vuli and msimu rains will begin late, delaying agricultural activities and limiting income-generation opportunities. Households in localized areas will face high levels of food insecurity in this scenario.

Current food security conditions, third quarter 2007 (July to September)

Households are currently generally food secure, as the msimu harvest in unimodal areas and the masika harvest in bimodal areas continue. The ongoing harvests are enabling farmers to build on-farm stocks and sell part of their produce for income to meet other household needs.

Markets are well supplied from the ongoing harvests and the sale of stocks in msimu surplus production areas. The prices of maize and beans have increased in surplus production areas of Mbeya, Sumbawanga and Iringa, indicating that food marketing is active and traders are buying supplies for stocking and to sell in other markets. This is benefitting producers, who were facing low prices from January to May, as the higher prices increase revenues. In areas where prices were relatively higher (Kigoma, Shinyanga, Tabora, Morogoro, Lindi and Mtwara) from January to March 2007, prices have been decreasing recently. This is likely to have been caused by increased supplies from harvesting and food movements into markets. Prices are likely to follow a normal trend and increase in August and September.

As harvests continue, the government’s Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) will begin to purchase stocks and traders will continue doing so. The government plans to procure 30,000 MT of food crops to increase the SGR stocks to the maximum capacity of 150,000 MT of maize and sorghum. This will further benefit farmers, especially as the SGR intends to purchase from remote and surplus production areas.

Given that seasonal production was good and generated income-generating agricultural labor opportunities in rural areas, net-consumer households have sufficient access to food despite the moderate price increases. Other livelihoods that benefited from the good msimu and masika rains include fishing, as lakes, rivers and dam water levels increased, and casual labor, as labor opportunities have increased in urban centers after the generation of hydropower for industrial usage returned to normal.

Pasture conditions and water for livestock continue to be satisfactory. However, due to insufficient masika rains in most pastoral parts of bimodal rainfall regime areas, pastures are expected to deteriorate as soil moisture continues diminishing towards September before the start of the vuli season, and even sooner in areas where masika rains were particularly poor. Animal conditions (which are currently good) will deteriorate as pastures diminish, and milk production is expected to follow the same trend. Currently, terms of trade are favorable to pastoralists given the relatively low cereal prices, and pastoralist households should purchase cereals in July and early August and stock food for the future before prices of cereals increase and livestock conditions deteriorate as pastures are depleted.

As a result of the wide food availability and good food access, most households are currently food secure. However, there are some households in localized areas facing food insecurity following the effects of floods from above-normal rains in some areas and insufficient rainfall in other areas. According to the preliminary food crop production forecasts, the districts with some households facing moderate food insecurity are Monduli (Arusha Region), Mwanga, Same and Hai (Kilimanjaro Region), Mbulu and Simanjiro (Manyara Region), Rufiji (Coast Region), Iramba, Manyoni, Singida Rural and Singida Urban (Singida Region), Uyui (Tabora Region), Bariadi, Kishapu and Meatu (Shinyanga Region) and Kilwa and Liwale (Lindi Region). The number of people that are currently facing food insecurity will be established by the rapid vulnerability analysis (RVA) scheduled for mid-August.

Most-likely food security scenario, fourth quarter 2007 (October to December)

Food security is likely to remain stable during the fourth quarter of the year. Food will be adequately available following the good msimu harvest in unimodal areas and masika harvest in the bimodal Lake Victoria and western zones. However, the availability of non-cereal crops that are not easily processed and stored will diminish from October onwards, so the prices of cereals are likely to increase seasonably. Increased transportation costs, resulting from high international fuel prices and government tariffs, will cause food prices in remote markets to increase more than normal. Cross-border food trade will increase following the shortages of food in other countries in eastern and southern Africa, which will also put an upward pressure on food prices. The vuli rains will start on time in September and will come in sufficient quantities, and the msimu rains will start on time in mid-November.

The timely start of the rains will generate labor opportunities, which are an important source of income for poor rural households. Farmers will release stocks on the market to purchase necessary agricultural inputs, which will improve food availability. As a result, net-consumer households will still be able access sufficient food on the market, even as prices increase following the normal seasonal trend. Producer households will continue to benefit from the good production and increasing prices. The food security of pastoralist and agro-pastoralist households are also expected to remain stable. Pastures in the north and northeast that will have deteriorated in parts of Monduli, Mbulu, and Ngorongoro where masika rains were poor will begin to recover after the start of the vuli rains in September.

In this scenario, the number of food insecure people will increase relative to the current situation as stocks decrease and prices increase with the normal start of the hunger season, and pockets of moderate food insecurity will remain. However, general food security is expected to be better than normal for this time of year.

Worst-case food security scenario, fourth quarter 2007 (October to December)

In the worst-case scenario, food prices will increase substantially triggered by excessive exports, especially in Sumbawanga, Iringa and Mbeya in the Southern Highlands Region. The vuli and msimu seasons will start late, causing pasture conditions to deteriorate further in areas where the masika season did not perform well. Additionally, the cassava mosaic disease, which is currently limited to northwest Tanzania, will spread further.

In response to the very high prices, farmers may sell most of the crops they are currently harvesting relatively early in the marketing season. Farming households would then be left with insufficient grain stocks for their food needs later in the year (starting in November) in both bimodal and unimodal areas. This would have a particularly strong impact in the north, where the masika harvest was below normal and farmers would risk depleting their already meager grain stocks before the next harvest. The government should advise farmers to stock enough food for their households to avoid repurchasing the food at higher prices, which would threaten their food access and food security.

The excessive exports of food to neighbor countries (such as Kenya, Uganda, DRC, Burundi, Zambia and others) could cause food prices to increase substantially, thereby limiting food access to poor market-dependant households. Additionally, the late start of the vuli and msimu seasons will reduce agriculture labor opportunities, which would reduce household income and further limit food access.

The late rains in pastoral areas lead to overgrazing and unusual migration of pastoralists and their animals in search of pasture. This would reduce food security of pastoralists through the loss of livestock weight and market value, reduced calving and milk production and reduced meat and milk consumption by other household members who do not migrate with the livestock.

The spread of cassava mosaic disease will result in shortages of cassava, which contributes a substantial proportion of households’ food basket in drier and marginal agricultural areas of Lake Victoria and western zones. This would reduce food access starting in December when households begin eating greens from the vuli season. Also, if the vuli season fails, banana production will be significantly reduced. Cassava is a normal alternative buffer crop to bananas, and the impact of the disease on cassava production will limit availability of the alternate food for producer households.

In this scenario, the number of food insecure households will increase substantially relative to the current situation. Many households throughout Tanzania will be moderately food insecure, and households in localized areas will face high levels of food insecurity.