Pockets of food insecurity expand as pasture conditions deteriorate

The effects of the shortfall in “diéri” crop production due to a combination of different factors (frequent dry spells, pest infestations, the untimely end of the rainy season) will be magnified by the poor performance of lowland crops and lower yields from irrigated and rainfed crops. The deteriorating conditions in livestock-raising areas as a result of overgrazing and wind erosion, which has contributed to the spreading of brush fires in the central part of the country (northern Brakna and Gorgol and central Trarza and Assaba), are extending into southern Brakna (Boghé, Bababé, Maghta Lahjar and Barkeol departments). The deterioration in pasture resources and the poor performance of flood-recession crops (lowland and “walo” crops grown along the banks of the Senegal River) have visibly raised food insecurity levels in farming (zone 6) and agropastoral (zone 5) areas, the central and northern reaches of the Senegal River Valley (zone 7), transhumant pastoralist areas (zone 4) and northern enclave areas (Adrar and Inchiri) (Figure 1).

Market conditions

Supplies of sorghum and millet on markets in the interior are still low, but are improving on urban markets provisioned mainly by grain imports from Mali. Village-level food security reserves (SAVS) and harvests of local rice crops in Trarza, Brakna and Gorgol helped stabilize grain prices between December and January. January prices are visibly lower than at the same time last year (down by 30 UM in the case of millet and by 70 UM in the case of rainfed sorghum crops). In contrast, prices for flood-recession sorghum crops are up by 30 UM. Right now, households in the Valley are turning away from millet and sorghum, to wheat and rice, which is keeping sorghum prices relatively stable.

There is a steadily growing volume of grain imports from Mali in border areas in the southeast and in Nouakchott. In contrast, imports from Senegal are down, possibly due to the poor grain harvest in that country. This rollback in the volume of imports from Senegal is going to heighten food access problems in border areas with that country.

Figure 1. Livelihood zones in Mauritania

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: FEWS NET

Status of crops

Following the harvests of late-planted rainfed crops, harvests of irrigated crops are just about over. Production figures are expected to come in under the October forecasts due to the reduction in the size of areas planted in irrigated, lowland and “walo” crops and the heavy crop damage from grain-eating birds, stalk borers and stray animals.

The vegetable-growing season is already underway, concentrated mainly in Trarza, Gorgol and Adrar. The low level of the river, which has already discouraged many farmers from planting vegetable crops, may also limit off-season crop production. The low level of the river is due, in part, to the dam built in Mali as part of a power project, which has made no releases of water.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

Seasonal migration by livestock has picked up with the end of the rainy season, but large tracts of pastureland are deserted due to a lack of watering holes, while overgrazing is causing problems in areas with access to water. The condition of pasturelands has been rapidly deteriorating as a result of overgrazing, affecting small-scale sedentary herders and expanding pockets of food insecurity. Animals heading south from livestock-raising areas in the central part of the country (Tagant, northern Brakna and northern Trarza) have put added pressure on pasturelands in southern Trarza and Brakna and western Gorgol. Likewise, migrating animal herds from up north (Adrar, Inchiri and northern Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi) have damaged pasturelands in northern Assaba and central Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi. Brush fires, caused by severe wind erosion, are further heightening overgrazing problems. Animal reserves stretching from southeastern Gorgol to southeastern Hodh El Chargui have literally been invaded by herders. In spite of all these problems, on the whole, animal health conditions are still good.

The sharp jump in livestock prices between December and January (+4000 UM in the case of small animals and +20,000 UM in the case of cattle) is an indicator of low market supplies. After the large volume of animals sold in November and December by migratory herders in preparation for their departure and to meet demand during the holiday season, supplies are down with herders away from markets.

Plant health conditions

The locust situation is calm, but the December rains and the current mild temperatures are a source of concern. Surveillance teams are still hard at work in the field.

The bird situation, though less troubling than in November, is still worrisome. The control apparatus is still in place. There are large infestations of pink stalk borers in lowland areas of Aftout, Hodh El Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi and “walo” areas of Gorgol, which have been damaging rainfed and flood-recession crops for the past several years.

Food security conditions

The deterioration in the condition of pasturelands and the poor performance of flood-recession crops have visibly raised food insecurity levels in farming and agropastoral areas, the central and northern reaches of the Senegal River Valley, transhumant pastoral areas and northern enclave areas. However, the start-up of the second phase of the SAVS (village-level food security reserve) program, relatively stable food prices and the sizeable hike in prices for small animals (+4000 UM in Nouakchott and +2,000 UM on rural markets, or a jump of 4,000 to 7,000 UM in two months) should enable middle-income and more prosperous households to maintain their normal way of life.

In contrast, poor households in farming and agropastoral areas will soon be experiencing food access problems with the lean period expected to begin two to three months ahead of schedule and no crop production prospects until next October.

Prices for coarse grains (with the exception of flood-recession sorghum, whose price is up by 10 UM) and wheat have stabilized with the start-up of the second phase of the SAVS (village-level food security reserves) program and increased imports of Malian grain. The falling price of locally grown rice crops is a result of ongoing harvests. However, the falling price of rice is expected to be short-lived in the face of the production shortfall compared with last year, and with only 20 percent earmarked for on-farm consumption. The other 80 percent belongs to agricultural developers.

Figure 2. Trends in terms of trade on the Boghé market FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

The volume of millet and sorghum imports from Senegal is relatively small, but imports of Asian rice are being stepped up. The hike in prices for small animals should offset any rise in the price of imported rice, particularly with the exchange rate for the CFA franc and the “ouguiya” holding relatively steady since December (at 5000 CFAF = 2600 UM).

In the absence of a reversal in current trends due to some outside shock, terms of trade should gradually improve for both herders and agropastoralists (Figure 2).

Many farming and agropastoral communities in Tagant, Inchiri, southeastern and eastern Adrar (Aoujeft and Chinguitti departments), Aftout and the southeastern part of the country are having problems finding water for their animals and for household use.