Figure 1. Current food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FSAU/FEWS NET Somalia

• In southern Somalia, household food access is expected to deteriorate in the coming months as a result of below-average gu production in August and increased food prices resulting from restricted trade.

• Very poor sorghum and maize production is expected in the gu harvest in August following poor gu rains in May and June. Production is expected to be particularly below average in the Shabelle valley and Hiran and Bay regions, with almost complete crop failure in Gedo Region.

• Civil insecurity, sea piracy and the disruption of the Bakara market in Mogadishu have restricted trade in the south. Traders are unable to access their warehouses and have limited ability to import basic goods. Food prices have increased to above-normal levels as a result.

• Although a dry spell in May and June reversed rangeland recovery in parts of southern and central regions, pasture, browse and water are still widely available in key grazing areas due to very good deyr 2006/07 rains and a good onset of the gu rains in mid-April. The pastoral recovery process is continuing in the south.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security summary

The food security of households in parts of southern Somalia, who have experienced recurrent shocks over the past several years, is expected to deteriorate in the coming months as a result of poor cereal production and restricted trade. The March to June gu (main) rainy season was poor, and below-average sorghum and maize production is expected as a result, especially in the key cropping areas of Bay Region and the Shabelle valley. Disruptions in trade and the resultant increasing food prices have already limited food access for the urban poor, internally displaced persons (IDPs) and parts of the rural communities. Results from sixteen nutrition assessments carried out by FSAU and other partners this year show that global acute malnutrition rates are above the World Health Organization emergency threshold of 15 percent, and although this is a chronic and not a new emergency, such levels of malnutrition are unacceptable.

Figure 2. Rainfall as percent of normal, March 20 to June 30, 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET/USGS   Figure 3. Pasture conditions as percent of normal FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET/USGS

In the livestock-dependent regions of the north and northeast, food security is normal, as livestock conditions and production are normal. In most of the south, pastoralists are in the recovery process from years of recurrent shocks, as rangeland conditions have improved and livestock productivity and value have increased. High calving rate for all livestock species and increased milk production were reported from all regions, including Gedo. However, in central regions and part of the northeast where gu rains were very poor, water availability is very critical, as most of the underground water reservoirs are dry. The most-affected regions include the Sool Plateau, Mudug and Galgadud. Water tracking for human and livestock started in late June (two months early) and will continue up to late October when the next rainy season (deyr) is expected. The food and livelihood security of poor pastoralists, IDPs and poor urban households in central regions is being threatened by high inflation rates, increasing food prices, reduced terms of trade between livestock and cereals and, more recently, an increase in water prices.

Seasonal progress

The performance of the gu (main season) in most of southern and central Somalia was well below normal (figure 2). In particular, rains were very poor (20 to 40 percent of normal) in key cropping areas of the Shabelle valley. A near-normal start of crop establishment at the onset of the gu rains in mid-April was severely compromised by poor, erratic and uneven temporal distribution of rains in May and June. Though crop production varies by region, initial estimates indicate that it is well below normal in the Shabelle valley, Bay and Hiran regions, with almost complete crop failure in Gedo. Some areas in the Juba and Shabelle valleys are still inundated with water from deyr-season flooding in early 2007, which restricted area for planting.

In pastoral areas, pasture, browse and water are widely available in most regions, due to normal gu 2006 rains followed by very good deyr 2006/07 rains, a mild jiilaal dry season and a good onset of the gu rains in mid-April. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows that fodder and pasture conditions in most pastoral areas remain above average (figure 3). In Galgadud and parts of Mugug regions, however, water reservoirs are dry, and prices of water are already high and are expected to increase further during the coming dry season (August to September).

Markets, trade and food access

In anticipation of the gu harvest in August, prices of local cereals normally drop at this time of the year, as farmers and traders release old stocks into the market. However, cereal prices in most of the reference markets in the south are higher than the five-year average and expected to continue to rise until the gu harvest in mid-August, as most farmers are running out of their food reserves. Moreover, given that the gu harvest is poor in key cropping areas of the Shabelle valley, prices

Figure 4. Retail maize prices in Shabelle valley, in Ssh/kg FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FSAU and FEWS NET

Figure 5. Cereal to labor terms of trade, by region, in kg of cereal per daily wage rate FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FSAU/FEWS NET

of staple foods – especially maize – are abnormally high. Compared to January this year, the price of maize in June was 93 percent higher (figure 4). This is mainly due to an expected shortage in supply, and increased rural demand due to influx of IDPs from Mogadishu to those areas. Similar price trends have been observed in Bakara market in Mogadishu and Beletweyn.

In Sorghum Belt markets, sorghum prices have increased by 37 percent over the last six months (from Ssh 1,448/kg in January to Ssh 1,980/kg in June 2007), and the price in June was 25 percent greater than the five-year average. There has not been a proportional increase in wages, which has caused terms of trade between daily wages and cereals to plummet in most regions in the south (figure 5).

Inflation generated by the depreciation of the shilling, from Ssh 14,160 per dollar in January to Ssh 19,600 per dollar in June 2007, coupled with insecurity, the restriction of cross-border and inter-regional trade, sea piracy and, most importantly, the disruption of the main Bakara market in Mogadishu, have raised the prices of imported commodities such as rice, sugar, wheat flour and vegetable oil. It is expected that the supply of imported food items will decrease in the coming months, due to increased high-tide-season monsoons from June to September.

The conflict and civil insecurity in Mogadishu continue to disrupt business and trade activities of the main Bakara market. This has curtailed local traders’ access to their warehouses as well as their ability to import. Moreover, the inability of traders to respond to the increasing demand in the rural markets due to the continued displacement from the conflict in Mogadishu early in the year are expected to push the price of staple cereals even higher during the coming months.

Civil insecurity

Civil security in many areas of the south, including Mogadishu, has deteriorated. Field reports confirm increased localized conflict in Galgadud, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Benadir, Hiran, Bakool and Lower Juba regions. Increased road blocks, banditry, clan tension and conflicts continued to affect inter-regional trade and transport networks in those regions. Armed conflict in the Somalia Region of Ethiopia and border closure have also affected the movement of traded livestock and cereals. As food imports into northern Somalia are very closely linked to livestock exports (most of which originate from the Somali Region of Ethiopia), the ongoing armed conflict and border closure between the two countries have the potential to cause severe food shortages in the chronically food insecure pastoral communities along the borderland.

Continuing marine piracy and heightened political tension and insecurity in the south also affect humanitarian access. The presence of a large number of displaced people in rural areas and small towns continues to stress already limited resources. Transportation and movement between and within regions remains difficult, costly and dangerous.