Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, fourth quarter (Oct-Dec 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: FEWS NET

At least 460,000 people in need of food aid until March 2008 are being assisted in seven provinces of central and southern Mozambique that were affected by drought and floods this year. The pipeline is adequately supplied through December.

While nearly adequate food aid is being provided, attention must now be directed to ensuring farmers have adequate access to agricultural inputs for the upcoming rainy season. The forecast for the season is positive across the country, but timely input availability is crucial for its success, particularly in the drought affected areas of the south, where seed shortages are widespread.

Beginning in the south, the late September and early October rainfall marks the onset of seasonal rains. The rainfall in the southern and central regions will replenish water sources, alleviating the human and animal access to water and enabling seasonal agricultural activities to commence. To fully take advantage of the favorable season conditions, the Ministry of Agriculture has provided some key technical recommendations to farmers about which crops to plants and when.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Food security summary

While the food security monitoring is underway and the hungry period approaches, current food security conditions appear to be stable. At least 460,000 people in need of food aid until March 2008 are being assisted by a combination of food aid modalities in seven provinces of central and southern Mozambique affected by drought and floods this year. These modalities include: (a) food for assets; (b) food for work; and (c) vulnerable group feeding.

These households have limited food access, due to lack of income following crop failures this year, a lack of alternative income sources, and above normal food prices, particularly in southern markets that restrict market purchases. Ongoing humanitarian interventions and limited earnings from the second season harvests are preventing further deterioration of food security. Food security may however deteriorate in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane provinces and in parts of the central region if the upcoming rainy season is not favorable.

Although substantial price increases are normally expected as the hunger season approaches at this time of the year, current market and price information indicates that maize supplies remain adequate at wholesale and retail markets. In normal years, food prices in the major markets begin to rise in September and gradually increase until peaking in December and January as supplies dwindle. In less productive areas of the south, households have indicated that the variation in cereal prices is one of the most significant shocks they face, limiting their access to food.

The late September and early October rainfall has yet to yield any substantial improvements in vegetation, but the scattered rains are gradually improving pasture conditions, and subsequently animal body conditions as well.

As the onset of the rains looms, households are deeply involved in land preparation and, in some places, planting. Overall, farmers across the country are anticipating a good agriculture season in line with seasonal forecasts. The expected rainfall for central and southern Mozambique will replenish water availability for both human and animal consumption and agricultural activities. As the season progresses, food security conditions are likely to improve with the increased availability of seasonal foods, such as fruits, and the first green harvests beginning in January, and as a result of increased demand for agricultural labor (ganho-ganho), which will boost the incomes and purchasing power of poorer households.

Figure 2. Satellite derived rainfall estimates
21-30 Sep. 2007	1-10 Oct. 2007	11-20 Oct. 2007	Total rainfall in mm
FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE	FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Seasonal progress

The third dekad of September (21-30 September 2007) may have marked the onset of rains in parts of Maputo and Gaza provinces. According to the satellite rainfall estimates (RFE), the start of the rainfall season has been normal thus far. Parts of Maputo and Gaza provinces in south received over 25mm of rainfall (see Figure 2), and rains continued into the first dekad of October (1-10 October 2007). However, for the last ten days of September, INAM ground stations in Maputo province have recorded 24.9 mm in Maputo/Mavalane, 18.0 mm in Maputo Observatory and 20.1 mm in Changalane. For the first dekad of October, the same stations have recorded 59.9 mm, 57.4 mm, and 30.5 mm, respectively. For the rest of the country, the overall recorded rainfall during the third dekad of September was below 10 mm, except for localized areas such as Mocimboa da Praia, northeast of Cabo Delgado province with 47.7mm and Chimoio with 12.5 mm. During the following dekads (1 to 10 of October and 11 to 20 of October), rainfall spread to the rest of the region, including in parts of the northern region. In parts of the south, the rainfall conditions so far have allowed for some farmers in to start land preparation and planting. However, it is still very early in the season and conditions could change.

Maize prices mixed

Figure 3. Maize prices in selected retail markets in September FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: SIMA, 2007

Consumer maize prices vary across the southern, central and northern regions. While in general, prices in the center and north are below the five-year average (Beira and Nampula), the prices in the south are above average, except in Maputo city. A significant real price increase over the five-year average (2002–06) is seen in Massinga (16 percent) and Chókwe (10 percent), as shown on Figure 3.

Compared to last year (2006), real retail maize prices are relatively higher in Chókwe, Xai-Xai, Maxixe, Massinga and Nampula and relatively lower in Maputo and Beira. In general, maize prices have been increasing seasonally with the onset of the lean period.

Overall, maize availability is still not a problem in the country. According to the latest reports issued in early October by the Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA), in general, maize supply and availability in the wholesale and consumption markets is normal for this time of the year.

The flow of maize from producer to consumption areas continues, although in some areas, the flow is decreasing following normal seasonal patterns. Southern markets are mostly supplied by maize from Sofala and Manica provinces in the central region, while central markets are supplied locally. In the north, Nampula city is supplied mostly by Zambézia Province, while Pemba and Lichinga are supplied locally. On the other hand, despite relatively good food availability, the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households, especially in the recently drought affected areas, is still inadequate for households to meet food and non-food needs. Most of these households are part of the targeted beneficiaries under the current ongoing emergency humanitarian assistance. So far, the highest upwards deviation from average prices is 16 percent in Massinga. However, food access is still assured for the majority of households. Nevertheless, close monitoring is strongly recommended for the remaining months before the main harvest begins in March, especially in the south.

Recommendations to farmers for the new agricultural season

Following the release of the seasonal climate outlook last month, the Crop and Early Warning Department (DCAP) of the National Directorate of Agrarian Services (DNSA) from the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAG) has produced an agricultural outlook for the 2007/08 agriculture season as well as technical recommendations to help farmers to adopt adequate measures according to the expected seasonal agro-climatic conditions. The rainy season outlook predicts a high probability there will be normal rains with a slight probability of above normal rainfall in the whole country during the October-December 2007 period. From January-March 2008, northern and central regions have a high probability of receiving above-normal rains with a slight probability of normal rains, while the southern region again has a higher probability of normal rains with a slight chance of above normal rains. In general, a good agriculture season for 2007/08 is expected in the whole country.

For the first half of the 2007/08 agriculture season (October to December 2007), the agriculture outlook indicates moderate probabilities for crops in the southern region to meet their water requirements. In the central region, moderate to higher probabilities are expected, except in Tete province, where the probabilities are very low. In the northern region, the agricultural outlook indicates low to moderate probabilities for the crops to meet their water requirements. For the second period (January to March of 2007), the agriculture outlook shows significantly improved probabilities compared with the first period. The probabilities for the crops to meet their water requirement on this period will vary between high to very high in the whole country. To fully take advantage of the season conditions, technicians from the Ministry of Agriculture have made some key technical recommendations that agricultural extension officers and other parties should disseminate to farmers. These include the following:

Southern region: Sow during the normal planting period, using short cycle varieties. Closely monitor and control rat infestations throughout the season. Give special attention to a possible outbreak of armyworm and leaf miner worm, and reduce overgrazing during the first half of the season.

Central region: Special precautions given the potential for inundations; plant during the normal period. Pay special attention to migratory pests like red locusts and to armyworms, especially in Sofala and Manica provinces.

Northern region: Farmers should follow normal planting procedures; pay special attention to the potential for rat infestations in some districts. In the second half of the season (January-March 2008), pay special attention to potential outbreaks of armyworm and African cassava “mosaic” disease. Special attention should be paid to Niassa Province, where red locusts originate.