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Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions FULL-SIZE IMAGE

• The food security of drought-affected pastoralists has improved in most areas. Unseasonable rains from July through September have strengthened the ongoing recovery process in northwestern pastoral districts, although pastoral conditions seasonally declined in the northeast. Improved terms-of-trade are facilitating food access for pastoral households.

• To sustain the pastoral recovery process and enhance resilience, the implementation of livelihood-building interventions across sectors is needed, in addition to successive seasons of good rains.

• Good October to December rains are needed to improve the food security of households in the short rains-dependent southeastern marginal agricultural lowlands that faced widespread long-rains crop losses this year. Below-normal rains may lead to another poor harvest and a severe food security crisis in this area.

• The country is well supplied with maize through the end of the July 2007 to June 2008 marketing year, as long as the current unseasonable rains in some key producing areas do not cause significant pre- or post-harvest losses. Maize prices are expected to decline in most markets through March 2008 as crops continue to be harvested.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Mixed forecast for the 2007 October – December short-rains season

Figure 2. October-December short rains forecast FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Kenya Meteorological Department

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released the forecast for the October-December short rains (figure 2). The forecast suggests that the western half of the country and coastal areas will receive normal to above-normal rains (green areas in figure 2), and the eastern half of the country is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall (areas shaded yellow). However, various climatological factors may affect this forecast. A La Niña event is setting in off the South Pacific Ocean, which is associated with dry conditions in eastern Kenya, and could intensify a drought in the eastern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas that received poor long rains during 2007. Additionally, though, the sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean are warming, which has a tendency to increase rainfall in eastern Kenya and may mitigate the effect of the La Niña. It is unclear at this point which of these rainfall scenarios will occur.

The 2007 long rains have continued uncharacteristically through September over several parts of the country, especially in western, coastal and Mt. Kenya cropping areas; northwestern pastoral areas including parts of Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot and Baringo; and eastern pastoral areas bordering southern Somalia. While the unseasonable rains have been light in pastoral areas, they have enhanced the regeneration of pasture and browse and recharged water sources. However, the drought-prone and overwhelming short-rains dependent southeastern marginal agricultural areas remained seasonably dry from June through the third week of October. The long-rains season was poor in these areas, and good short rains through December are needed to offset the effects of the poor long rains and avert a food security crisis.

Figure 3. Forage deviations from long-term means   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: LEWS/GL_CRSP

Pastoral food security remains stable in most areas following unseasonable rains

The expected seasonal decline in pastoral food security has been mitigated considerably by a relatively mild July-September dry season. The Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported that pastoral food security has remained stable in the eastern pastoral districts, and has improved in many parts of the northwestern pastoral districts that continued to receive rains through September. Pasture, browse and water availability has been good in many parts of the northwestern pastoral and agropastoral areas (see forage conditions in figure 3), including Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo and Samburu districts. Parts of the eastern pastoral districts, including coastal areas of Tana River, Ijara and southeastern Garissa, also have favorable vegetation and water availability. Unusually, migration from most of these areas has been fairly limited and watering distances range between 3 to 5 kilometers, as compared to more than 20 kilometers in normal dry seasons. However, continuing conflict is limiting pastoralists’ access to good pastures and causing rapid deterioration of resources in areas where pastoralists have clustered, especially in Turkana and Samburu districts.

Although food security has remained stable in the northern and most parts of the eastern pastoral districts, including Mandera, Moyale, Wajir, Isiolo, northern Garissa and the hinterland of Tana River, key grazing resources are declining markedly as a result of the poor long-rains season (figure 3). Watering and grazing distances have increased to 20 kilometers, although only limited migration outside the districts is being reported.

Livestock body conditions are generally good for all species, with the exception of camels in the eastern pastoral districts that were afflicted by a yet-to-be determined disease. However, the ALRMP has reported that the disease has subsided significantly in the worst-affected districts of Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo. The Peste des petits Ruminants (PPR) reported in the northwestern pastoral districts over the past several months has also been controlled through concerted vaccination efforts by the Government of Kenya in collaboration with NGOs. The favorable livestock conditions have translated into improved milk availability as well as an increase in the calving, lambing and kidding rates in most parts of Samburu, Isiolo, Garissa, Marsabit, Ijara, West Pokot and Baringo districts.

Figure 4. Rising livestock prices in select pastoral markets, in KSh per head of cattle FULL-SIZE IMAGE                                        Source: ALRMP

Unusually, livestock prices continued to rise even through the dry season in most pastoral districts (figure 4). Livestock prices increased between 5 and 15 percent over the past month; the most significant increase was for goats. Livestock prices were also 30-50 percent higher than their respective long-term averages during September. The rising livestock prices are attributed to above-average availability of key resources after the relatively mild dry season and the desire of pastoralists to build up their own herds. Although cattle prices declined marginally in Tana River and Samburu districts, they remain well above their respective September averages. The continual rise in livestock prices has offset the impacts of marginal increases in cereal prices in a few areas, including Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and West Pokot. Cereal prices have declined or remained stable in other pastoral markets, resulting in continual improvement in pastoral terms of trade.

Rates of child malnutrition have declined in pastoral populations between 5 and 20 percent over the past month in Mandera, Tana River, Samburu, Turkana, Ijara, West Pokot, Baringo and Marsabit. The ALRMP has attributed the decline in child malnutrition rates to a combination of the presence of supplementary feeding centers in pastoral districts; improved availability of milk and other livestock products during most of 2007 following beneficial rains early in the year; effective control of water and vector-borne diseases; and additional food supply from the ongoing emergency operation. However, conflict continues to reverse the gains achieved so far – rates of child malnutrition (per the at-risk percentages, measured using the middle upper arm circumference) in the conflict-affected areas of southern Turkana range between 14 and 18 percent, compared to 5 to 10 percent in areas without conflict. Similarly, the rates are 30 percent in the Loiyangalani conflict epicenter of Marsabit District, compared to 16 percent in the rest of Marsabit. Incidences of conflict have also continued in Tana River among the Orma and Wardei communities and in northern and southern areas of Samburu District. The latest conflicts have resulted in closure of schools and markets; displacement of pastoralists that now reside in camps; loss of livelihood; and the loss of life in Tana River District, where nine people were killed.

Multi-sectoral interventions required to uphold recovery

Food security has markedly improved across the pastoral livelihood through most of 2007, after a difficult period from October 2006 through April 2007 that was characterized by floods, the Rift Valley Fever, the PPR, an upsurge in human diseases and conflict. For the recovery process to continue, as well as for food security to improve for households in marginal agricultural areas, additional favorable seasons are necessary along with concurrent implementation of cross-sectoral interventions. An estimated 2.4 million persons in pastoral, agropastoral and marginal agricultural areas are proposed for non-food interventions, across sectors, following recommendations of the just-concluded long rains assessments. An estimated $6.6 million is required for livestock interventions; $7.2 million for crop production; $2.7 million for health and nutrition; $25 million for water and sanitation; and $3 million for education. Key interventions that are proposed are outlined below:

• Livestock re-stocking programs intended to re-build the pastoralists’ income base need to be implemented urgently, since the short-rains season is due to begin in mid-October.
• Prevention and control of a possible upsurge in livestock disease that often follows the start of the rainy season is critical.
• Repeated outbreaks of vector and water-borne diseases over the past three seasons, including cholera and malaria, particularly in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas, suggest that surveillance, treatment and mitigation in the health and water sectors are urgently required.
• Purification of water sources that were contaminated by floods needs to be carried out.
• Importantly, targeted supplementary feeding programs need to continue, particularly in the eastern pastoral districts and localized areas of northwestern pastoral districts, where rates of child malnutrition surpass WHO’s emergency threshold.
• Conflict resolution and prevention in pastoral areas as well as in fishing areas across Lake Victoria between Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are critical to avert rising numbers of lives and livelihoods lost.
• Water facilities have degraded significantly, necessitating the rehabilitation of boreholes and desilting of dams in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas to enhance the holding capacities of these sources and reduce watering distances.
• Land degradation in the pastoral rangeland and the marginal cropping areas is extensive. A good rainy season is no longer sufficient to assure a good crop or favorable pasture or water availability. Soil and water conservation activities are a prerequisite.
• Rapid infrastructural interventions are needed to ensure that livestock and food markets are accessible to pastoral and marginal agricultural households from September, so as to promote trade and minimize transaction costs that are often passed on to drought-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural farm households.
• Roads, dykes and structures damaged by rains and floods require urgent rehabilitation to avoid further destruction as well as to open up roads especially in pastoral, coastal and lakeshore areas to improve access to markets and services.
• Maintain the Government of Kenya’s SGR at the current high level, so as to mitigate undesirable price increases in the event that a significant proportion of the key crop is lost through pre- and post-harvest losses.
• Enhance crop storage techniques at the household level to reduce the need to sell crops when prices are lowest and mitigate additional crop losses, as well as avoid contamination of poorly stored crop by aflatoxin, a common occurrence, especially in the marginal agricultural areas.

Sectoral working groups are sourcing funds to implement interventions that are provided for in more detail in the 2007 long rains assessment report.

Emergency operation and supplementary feeding continues in pastoral areas

Food distributions under the Emergency Operation (EMOP) intended to run through September 2007 targeting 923,860 beneficiaries in 14 drought-affected districts were delayed in the past month, awaiting the results of the long-rains assessments. The occurrence of unseasonable rains, particularly in Samburu and Turkana, caused further delays in deliveries, as transport was impeded. However, distributions re-started and were completed in eight districts while allocations for the remaining districts spilled over into October. The total planned quantity of 9,563 MT was distributed to the 923,860 beneficiaries, of which 100,668 beneficiaries are under the Food-for-Asset project. Dispatches for the expanded school feeding programme for the final school term targeting 249,000 school children in 477 primary schools in nine districts were also completed. A total of 988 MT, including maize, pulses and vegetable oil, were provided.

Supplementary feeding continued in eight pastoral districts with the exception of Moyale and Marsabit for about 53,000 children under the age of five years and pregnant and nursing mothers in September. The overall programme will involve 60,000 beneficiaries. The programme is meant to alleviate moderate malnutrition in the districts where GAM rates are traditionally close to or above emergency levels even in the absence of an on-going crisis. The programme is expected to reduce the malnutrition levels, enhance the resilience of the most vulnerable and build local and national capacities in malnutrition management.

Conclusions from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group’s (KFSSG’s) food security assessments have recommended continuation of a scaled-down EMOP. About 650,000 beneficiaries down from 923,860 will be targeted from October through February 2008, following significantly improved household food security. Most of the food distributions will be carried out through Food-for-Work and Food-for-Assets programs.

Overall national crop output favorable in spite of poor output in the lowlands

The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has maintained its mid-season estimate of 2.56 million MT of maize produced from 1.28 million hectares as the likely output from the 2007 long-rains season. This optimistic expected output is about 18 percent higher than the long-rains long-term average output, and assumes that unseasonable rains in critical growing areas in western Kenya will not cause significant pre- or post-harvest losses. While the maize crop is fairly resilient to heavy rains, the wheat crop has not fared very well, and significant pre-harvest losses have been reported. The MoA estimates that nearly 30 percent of the projected 324,000 MT output has been lost. The loss in output will compound the structural deficit, as the country’s domestic demand for wheat is more than 800,000 MT. However, the private sector is well able to meet this deficit in a timely fashion through imports.

Almost 60 percent of the maize crop has been harvested, and the remaining crop should be harvested from October through January, assuming that the current unseasonable rains are not an impediment. The MoA has indicated that the country is currently supplied with an estimated 2.1 million MT of maize, sufficient to meet domestic demand for nearly 8 months. The country will have sufficient maize stocks through the July 2007 to June 2008 marketing year if losses of un-harvested grain are low.

Maize price trends varied in September. Prices rose marginally in Eldoret, Nairobi and several deficit-producing lowland areas and pastoral markets. Maize prices are declining in markets near areas where harvesting has been completed, such as Kisumu, where the price declined by just over 10 percent. The downward pressure on maize prices is expected to increase significantly through March 2008, during which time both the long- and short-rains crops will be harvested.